New Jersey's Jack Hughes can easily smash projected point totals if he remains healthy.

The NHL season is fast approaching, and it's time to dive into regular season player props once again. Last year, we dug deeper to find the best values on the sportsbooks and capitalized on misinformed odds that overlooked some players history beyond the season prior. We're aiming to do the same this time around, identifying hidden values before the puck drops.

We took advantage of the sportsbooks not knowing anything about Connor McDavid and that he's not a goal scorer and easily hit the under for his goal total last season, which was at a shocking 51.5 when he scored more than 44 goals just once in his nine prior NHL season. We also hit on nearly all of our other player prop picks like Mitch Marner, Mark Scheifele, Wyatt Johnston, Rasmus Dahlin, Teuvo Teravainen and Connor Hellebuyck to hit his over in wins plus take home the Vezina trophy.  

We feel confident in our next two off-season picks coming from the same player in New Jersey's Jack Hughes. Everyone is riding the hype train right now and betters may be able to profit from his very friendly player props options with his over/under for goals 32.5 (-115 on BetMGM) and points at 83.5 (-108 on BetMGM) on the season.

All betting lines are from BetMGM Sportsbook and are subject to change. Hockey is a difficult sport to predict so please gamble responsibly. 

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The biggest factor with Hughes is his health as has yet to play a full 82-game season, with his highest total being 78 games during the 2022–23 campaign. When fully healthy, the Orlando native has shown the potential to be a 95 to 100-point player, based on his production even during seasons that were cut short by injury.

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In that 2022–23 season, which was the closest he has come to a full year, Hughes broke out as one of the league’s elite players, posting 43 goals and 56 assists for 99 points. His averages in other seasons strongly suggest he would have reached the 95 to 100-point range if he had remained healthy. The same holds true for his goal-scoring pace. While he hit 43 goals in his best year, his other seasons put him on pace for between 35 and 45 goals.

This makes his player props this season very attainable if he can stay healthy. The positive sign is that Hughes has had since March to recover from his latest injury, which appeared to be the result of bad circumstance rather than any ongoing physical issues. Last season's injury came after an awkward collision with Vegas center Jack Eichel that sent both players into the boards, with Hughes taking the worst of the fall.

There is a real possibility Hughes could complete a full season without any setbacks. However, if bettors are looking for a margin of safety, it helps to understand how many games he would likely need to play to hit his overs based on his past seasonal averages that appear to be consistent year-to-year.

For goals, the projection is more difficult to pinpoint as his pace has varied with his previous two seasons suggesting a range that comes close to 35-goal mark and could be very close if he misses time. For points, Hughes has averaged 1.19 points per game over the last four seasons, which means he would need to play just 71 games to have a strong chance of hitting the over. 

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