Superstar winger Mitch Marner sees a similar situation in Vegas with star linemates and a top-five offense, which should help him hit the over on his season point total.
As the NHL season approaches, we're once again diving into regular season player props, just like we did last year, when we found tremendous value across the board. From Mitch Marner, Mark Scheifele, Wyatt Johnston, Rasmus Dahlin, Teuvo Teravainen and Connor Hellebuyck (who hit the over on wins and won the Vezina), our picks consistently delivered.
One of our biggest wins came with Connor McDavid. Despite being the league’s most electric player, sportsbooks oddly priced him as a pure goal scorer, setting his goal total at a staggering 51.5 but with only one season above 44 goals in his previous nine, we easily cashed the under. This kind of edge came from looking deeper than surface-level stats, recognizing long-term trends and context that the books often miss.
We're bringing that same approach into this season but this time it's with Mitch Marner of the Vegas Golden Knights. We again see another betting line where it feels like the sportsbooks don't have a sense of what's going on with the player. Marner has an over/under for points next season slated at 93.5 (-115 on BetMGM) despite easily surpassing this mark in three of the last four seasons with injury preventing him from slightly missing the mark in the season left out.
He's going to a slightly better offense in Vegas but will see a subtle downgrade from dishing passes to Jack Eichel instead of Auston Matthews. However, Marner will also have a slightly better goal scorer on his opposite wing in Pavel Dorofeyev, who is coming off a 35-goal season while Matthew Knies scored 29 goals last season. The conditions should be relatively the same with the outside noise of Toronto not being an issue in Las Vegas.
Marner faced a lot of pressure with the Maple Leafs and still managed to produce league-best numbers, meaning in a more stress-free situation he could thrive like we've never seen before. Expectations will certainly be placed in front of Marner as the Golden Knights are noted as being one of the most aggressive organizations in the NHL and will make sure they get their money's worth out of the player.
The realistic prediction for Marner this season should be near or even above his mark last season at 102 points. The situation around him doesn't warrant a near ten point decrease in production and betters will be able to profit from it.
All betting lines are from BetMGM Sportsbook and are subject to change. Hockey is a difficult sport to predict so please gamble responsibly.
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