Detroit, who just missed the playoffs in 2023-24, took a step backwards last season, getting another early start on the golf course. The Red Wings failed to qualify for the playoffs for the ninth consecutive season, extending the longest drought in the team’s 99-season history. The Yzer-plan, under GM and former team great, Steve Yzerman has started to draw criticism from some as to when the fruits of his labor will appear.
The Red Wings were 13-17-4 and eight points out of a playoff spot when they hired coach Todd McLellan to replace Derek Lalonde on Dec. 26. They went 17-5-2 from Dec. 27-Feb. 25, with their .750 points percentage pushing them into the first wild card in the Eastern Conference. At the time, the plan looked to have been working. But the club then lost six straight in regulation and spiraled out of playoff contention for good, sitting home again.
Detroit finished 22nd with 2.87 goals per game and 21st with 3.16 goals against last season. Offensively, the team fell from 3.35 goals per game (ninth overall) but improved slightly defensively from 3.33, 24th overall. The Red Wings ranked fourth on the power play (27.0 percent), the best it's finished since the League started tracking the statistic in 1977-78. Though, they tallied just one more goal on the man-advantage last season.
Now for the bad news. The team finished last in the League on the penalty kill (70.1 percent) despite the fact Detroit had the third-fewest penalty minutes (557) and were assessed the third-fewest minor penalties (208). Those struggles as well as at even-strength resulted in missing the playoffs yet again. The hope is that Pk is better this year, how the offense improves remains to be seen.
As mentioned in the projected lineups column, the first line is more than solid. Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond should combine for close to 100 goals and 225 points. Then the production levels out, Patrick Kane showed that age is just a number, posting 59 points in 72 contests last season. Marco Kasper improved the second half of the season, but he needs to take another step forward to provide the level of offense this team needs.
Once you get past those five offensively, the output up front thins substantially. Jonathan Berggren may be in a make-or-break campaign. If he fails to produce, he could be elsewhere next season. James Van Riemdsyk will be counted on to provide some tertiary scoring and veteran leadership. Andrew Copp underwent surgery for a torn pectoral tendon in late February but should be ready for training camp and a middle-six role.
Perfect world, Carter Mazur, Nate Danielson or Dmitri Buchelnikov force their way onto the team. Beyond that, what we see is what they will be. The Red Wings may lack enough offense unless Michael Rasmussen, Elmer Soderblom or Mason Appleton raises their output to make the playoffs and will need to rely on improvements in net.
Simon Edvisson is vying for and deserves a long-term contract. He has just scratched the surface of how good he will be. Paired next to Moritz Seider, the team’s best all-around player, the duo provides Detroit a legitimate first group.
After those two, the talent falls off, at least on the current roster. Axel Sandin-Pellikka and William Walinder will eventually be the second pair. ASP is an offensive juggernaut while Wilander his defensive ballast. When that occurs remains to be seen. Until then, the lines of Ben Chiarot, Justin Holl, Jonathan Bernard-Docker, Erik Gustafsson and Ian Mitchell will split time on the blueline.
Where Detroit hopes they have improved is between the pipes. John Gibson, on the block for years in Anaheim, but hard to move due to his contract and his desire to stay with the Ducks, landed with the Red Wings this offseason. If he can avoid injury, Gibson should take on the bulk of the workload, reducing Cam Talbot to back up duty, at least under Sebastian Cossa is deemed ready. When at the top of his game, Gibson is an above average netminder.
Prediction:
Detroit’s top-line and Patrick Kane continue to produce. Kasper builds off his prior year success. Simon Edvinsson takes a step-forward and receives his long-term contract while Moritz Seider has the best season of his career.
Yzerman incorporates a few of the young blueliners and forwards after the Olympic break and they provide a boost to the roster. ASP shows he will be a future force while the team trades some of their vets for future assets. Gibson proves he still has it, carrying the squad at times.
Look for the Red Wings to remain in contention for a little while before missing the playoffs for a tenth straight season.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.