Whither the Core Four? Toronto’s Core Four had a solid season but fell short – again – of their ultimate goal. Toronto finished first in the Atlantic Division with 108 points, six ahead of the Tampa and 10 ahead of the eventual Stanley Cup champion Florida. The Maple Leafs finally got past the first round, defeating the Senators in six games, but were eliminated in seven games by the Panthers, losing four of the final five games of the series after winning the first two.
Surprising few, Mitch Marner landed in Vegas, reducing the Core Four to Three. Auston Matthews and William Nylander were already locked up long term. John Tavares gave Toronto a hometown discount, agreeing to a four-year, $17.52 million contract on June 27 to stay with Toronto. GM Brad Treliving opted for quantity to fill in for Marner, attempting to bolster several areas for coach Craig Berube.
Matthews is coming off a down season, posting just 33 goals and 78 points across 67 regular-season appearances in 2024-25. This output came on the heels of 69 markers the prior campaign. Nylander had a career-high 45 goals in 82 regular-season games last campaign, though his overall production fell 14 points. Tavares added 38 goals and 36 helpers and sits just six markers shy of 500 for his career.
Matthew Knies had a fine sophomore campaign, notching 29 goals and as many assists. He earned a six-year, $46.5 million contract extension with the Maple Leafs. After the new core four, the offense is in question. Matias Maccelli, after two solid seasons, fell off a cliff with just 18 points in 55 contests. He was acquired from Utah for a conditional third-round pick in the 2027 NHL Draft. He is expected to slot into the top-six. Opposite him should be Bobby McMann, who hit 20 goals last season.
Toronto could have the making off a solid third line. Max Domi took a step back last season offensively, though he fits the makeup of a perfect middle-six forward. Possibly joining him will be Dakota Joshua, brought in from the Canucks in exchange for a 2028 fourth-round pick. Joshua also had a rough season and could slot onto the fourth line. If Joshua lands there, Nicholas Robertson, off 15 goals, could get a chance to prove he belongs in the lineup daily.
Steven Lorentz, off a career-high 199 hits, re-upped with his hometown team on a three-year contract over the offseason. His fourth-line center should be Scott Laughton, acquired at the deadline from Philly, He did little with his new team, though fits on the bottom-six. Joshua, David Kampf or Calle Jarnkrok could fill out that line. Easton Cowan is the one rookie who could see action for the Maple Leafs.
Morgan Rielly will be counted on to produce more with Marner gone, especially on the man-advantage. He posted 130+ blocked shots for the second straight season. Brandon Carlo, brought over last season from Boston and a defensive defenseman, should line up opposite Rielly. Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev are expected to be the second pair. Neither are offensive minded blueliners. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is still an offensive threat, and he should pair with Simon Benoit on the third unit. Toronto lacks material blue line depth, which could be a factor, especially if the team ever loses Rielly long term.
Anthony Stolarz, on his third team in three years, had his best season ever. With a career-high 34 games played, Stolarz went 21-8-3 with a 2.14 goals-against average (GAA) and a .926 save percentage. While not the sole #1, he is 1A or 1B next to Joseph Woll. A free agent after the season, Stolarz may have little choice but to see a major uptick in games played with Woll away from the team indefinitely to attend to a personal family matter. If Woll is sidelined for a while, Dennis Hildeby or James Reimer, the latter just recently signed to a PTO, will be the second goalie.
Prediction:
Mathews rebounds, continuing his year-on, year-off pattern, notching 50+ goals. Knies continues his ascension, breaking the 30-goal mark. Joshua becomes a fan favorite due to his style of play.
Rielly steps in ably to run the power play but the rest of the blueline fails to produce. Stolarz is forced to take on a larger burden to begin the season with Woll out and signs a long-term deal to stay in Toronto. He wears down late in the season.
The Maple Leafs get past the first round but once again fall in the second round.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.