John Tavares has handed the 'C' to Auston Matthews but that doesn't mean his time in Toronto will be up soon. What could an extension look like for the 33-year-old center?
Recent reports from TSN's Chris Johnston seem to indicate that John Tavares has interest in continuing his career with the Toronto Maple Leafs after his contract expires next season. It makes sense for both parties to get a deal done, as long as it's at the right price.
The seven-year, $77 million contract he signed in 2018 was a defining moment for a franchise that struggled to attract big-name talent in free agency. While the Stanley Cup aspirations that came from this signing haven't come to fruition, the right term and cap hit on an extension for Tavares could change the way that fans look back on his tenure with the Maple Leafs.
Despite the captaincy exchange that occurred with Auston Matthews earlier this week, there's no question that Tavares will still be a leader in the locker room for this Maple Leafs team. However, the 33-year-old's role on the ice will change as time progresses.
He's been a remarkably consistent offensive player throughout his six seasons with the Maple Leafs, recording 419 points in 440 games played, but the likelihood of him maintaining near point-per-game production into his mid-thirties is low.
Now, 65 points in 80 games wouldn't be considered great evidence of any sort of impending fall-off for most players of his age, but his 0.81 points-per-game average in 2023-24 was the lowest he's recorded in his 15-year NHL career. This makes it difficult to evaluate the trajectory of Tavares' offensive output as he enters the final season of his deal, and how that will affect what the Maple Leafs will be willing to pay him.
As for the framework of a possible extension, it would be difficult for the Leafs to justify offering anything longer than a three to four-year deal. Much like their recent Chris Tanev signing, there's still the possibility of a few extra years being added with the acknowledgement that he won't be the same player towards the end, but that will rely on the cap hit being at the right number.
There are a few comparable players to look at when measuring what Tavares could be making on his next contract. Former Maple Leaf Ryan O'Reilly signed a four-year, $4.5-million deal with the Nashville Predators last summer, which will take him to free agency at 36. O'Reilly's situation is different because he opted to test free agency, but considering he put up more points than Tavares last season, that could be the standard the Maple Leafs set when negotiations begin.
Another player who failed to come to terms with their team is Jonathan Marchessault, who shares Pat Brisson as an agent with Tavares. At 33 years old, Marchessault entered free agency off a career-high 42-goal season and a Conn Smythe Trophy win with the Vegas Golden Knights the year prior. He ended up signing a five-year deal with the Nashville Predators carrying a $5.5 million cap hit. Considering Marchessault's resume compared to Tavares, this is another reason to believe he could be looking at a salary in the range of $4-5 million.
While his performance in the 2024-25 season will play a part in what his next deal will look like, there seems to be a mutual acknowledgement that there is a much lower ceiling to what he'll be earning on the Maple Leafs than what he could get on the open market.
What the Maple Leafs will likely look to avoid is going down the route of what the Los Angeles Kings did with their captain, Anze Kopitar. While Kopitar has been another consistent offensive producer and a leader for their organization, GM Rob Blake elected to pay Kopitar for the value he provides now, giving him a two-year, $14 million extension that will expire when he's 38. Considering he was previously making $10 million a season, this isn't nearly enough of a manageable salary cut that the Maple Leafs can afford with their pending free agents, headlined by Mitch Marner.
An extension for Tavares at the right price could cause a cultural shift within the organization. There aren't many extensions this team has signed in recent years that, regardless of market value, can be confidently considered management 'wins'. Having a tenured veteran give the team some much-needed cap flexibility would send a message to the rest of the group about what it takes to win in today's NHL.