Do Long-Term, Low-Cap-Hit NHL Contracts Really Work?

“Who? For how long?”

That has been an increasingly common reaction to a trend that has taken hold in the NHL: signing depth and middle-of-the-lineup players to long-term, low-cap-hit deals.

The latest name of that ilk is Logan O’Connor, who inked a six-year, $2.5-million AAV deal with the Colorado Avalanche in September. O’Connor has never eclipsed 30 points, though he played at a 36-point pace last season.

The idea of “locking up the core” has been long established in the cap era following the early successes of Chicago, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh signing their cornerstones to long-term deals.

Those teams typically complemented their stars with cost-effective depth players on short-term contracts.

But now, given the uncertainty of the cap ceiling and teams contending with losing their depth players to higher bidders in free agency, “locking up the depth” is the new wave.

The salary cap upper limit lifted $4.5 million this year, which represented a bigger leap than the previous five years combined. With limited dollars to play with and the possibility of a fixed cap ceiling, general managers have been exploring all avenues to maintain cost certainty.

The question is, does it really work? Let’s explore the question:

O’Connor’s new deal finds company with recent contracts signed by forwards William Carrier, Nick Paul, Pierre Engvall, Colton Sissons, Brandon Tanev and Casey Cizikas.

All these players signed for six years or more, with an AAV below $3.5 million. None have a 50-point season to their resume, and they’re all, for the most part, bottom-six players.

In 2023-24, O’Connor delivered 0.9 wins above replacement, according to Evolving Hockey.

That puts him right in line with Sissons’ output leading up to him signing a seven-year, $2.857 million AAV deal with the Nashville Predators in 2019. Sissons produced seasons of 0.9, 1.9 and 0.9 wins above replacement before inking that contract at 25 years old.

But Sissons’ value has dipped in the years since, as he was -0.7 wins below replacement last season with a 48 percent expected goal share. Now at 30 years old and with two more seasons remaining on his deal, the back end of the contract could start to weigh heavier on the Predators.

A better case scenario for O’Connor is if he can provide the value of a player like Nick Paul, who has far outperformed his $3.15 million AAV deal with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Paul provided an incredible 2.5 wins above replacement for Tampa Bay last season, in line with players like Jack Eichel and Matthew Tkachuk. He also rocked nearly 60 percent of the expected goal share per Evolving Hockey, only below Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov on the Lightning.

In real terms, that translated into 46 points in 82 games, a career-best. On the flip side, Paul was afforded plenty of opportunities to play on Tampa Bay’s vaunted power play and even with Kucherov and Point at five-on-five. That’s a luxury most of the aforementioned players haven’t been provided.

While Paul’s metrics are likely to fall slightly back to earth this season, he’s given sizable dividends two seasons into his seven-year pact. But like Sissons, the age curve will start to come into effect with Paul inching closer to 30.

Part of the risk with most of these deals is that they commit term to late-twenties depth players, tying up cap space well into their thirties. O’Connor, 28, is no exception, as he will be 34 when his deal expires. Especially for forwards, the potential for improvement after 30 is slim.

Perhaps the worst case of this is Cizikas signing his six-year, $2.5 million AAV deal at 30 years old.

Analytics don’t do him many favours. His contract value will inevitably tank into his mid-thirties. However, there’s something to be said about Cizikas’ locker room presence, which has been a constant since 2011. The Islanders are a perennial playoff contender and Cizikas is a large part of their scrappy, underdog identity.

As for Paul, he was a key member of the Lightning’s run to the Cup final in 2022, so Julien Brisebois clearly thought he was important enough to keep around as a “core” player. The Lightning have been one of the biggest proponents of long-term deals, with seven players signed through 2028-29.

O’Connor fits that mold of a proven winner, as he already has a Cup ring with Colorado. A proven track record of success can go a long way toward a player finding security, but there’s always the chance of paying a role player more for his past accomplishments than his future output. In O'Connor's case, the output was already pretty modest.

These players aren’t in the same category as the franchise cornerstones who earn seven and eight-year deals coming out of their entry-level deals. Those players are normally just on the cusp of their prime years.

The stigma of handing out term to bottom-of-the-lineup players has largely broken, but there’s little evidence among Stanley Cup winners to suggest this is a particularly successful roster structuring.

There’s no clear-cut method to tell whether these deals make sense or not, but it’s often the intangibles that carry value in the minds of NHL front offices.