Keeping Up With the NHL's Atlantic Division: Top Four

Adam Proteau concludes his mid-season projections for all 32 NHL teams with the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs, Tampa Bay Lightning and Buffalo Sabres.

The NHL has just ended its weeklong all-star break, and we’re at the final stage of taking stock of each team and projecting where we see them going through the league’s March 3 trade deadline and the rest of the season.

We started the breakdowns last Monday with the bottom four teams in the Pacific Division. Tuesday, we turned to the top four Pacific teams.

On Wednesday and Thursday, we analyzed the bottom four and top four teams in the Central Division.

We focused on the bottom four Metropolitan Division teams on Friday and the top four on Saturday.

Sunday, we turned our attention to the Atlantic Division’s bottom four teams. Today, we’re finishing things off by putting the magnifying glass on the top four teams in the Atlantic.

Standings Position: 1st

Record: 39-7-5

Projection: Continuing to be the gold standard for all NHL teams this season; adding a veteran of consequence at the trade deadline; winning at least one round in the playoffs, and perhaps, running the table to a Stanley Cup victory.

Why: The Bruins cooled off somewhat at the all-star break, losing three games in a row before trouncing their division rivals in Toronto in their last game. But they’ve had an astonishing first half of the season, posting a 22-1-3 home record and putting 13 standings points between themselves and the second-place Leafs. Barring catastrophic injury, they’ve assured themselves of home-ice playoff advantage and the right to be favored against any opponent.

According to CapFriendly, Bruins GM Don Sweeney has only $3.2 million in salary-cap space to use at the deadline, but on a team this good, why mess with success? Adding a few bodies for depth purposes may well be what Sweeney does, and that could be enough for them to romp in the first round and enjoy another series win or two (or three). Boston isn’t a perfect organization, but they’ve got incredible balance and an urgency and business-like approach to their game that few opponents can hope to match.

Standings Position: 2nd

Record: 31-13-8

Projection: Securing second place in the Atlantic and a first-round matchup against Tampa Bay; adding one top-tier player and one or two depth talents by the deadline; finally winning a playoff series but not going further than that.

Why: The Leafs are one of only three teams to post 70 points or more by the all-star break, but they’ve stumbled in their last 10 games, going 5-4-1. That said, after its four-game losing streak that began in late October, Toronto has not lost more than two games in a row. And their goaltending situation – the place of much anxiety for Leafs fans – has settled itself out, with Ilya Samsonov earning the No. 1 job for the foreseeable future.

The schedule-maker has been kind to the Leafs in the days immediately after the break: in their first five games, Toronto has two games apiece against Columbus and Chicago and one game against Montreal. The Buds have often played down to the level of their opponent this year, but there’s no good reason they can’t win all five of those games and put some space between themselves and the Bolts. 

Leafs GM Kyle Dubas is projected to have only $2.75 million in cap space to use by the deadline, but we expect he’ll be one of the most active buyer teams this year.

Still, unless they add some superstar-level talents, the Leafs will be doubted as a team that can go on a deep playoff run. Even if they win a first-round series, they’ll run into the leviathan Bruins in Round 2. 

Toronto is one of only nine teams to beat Boston in regulation time thus far this year, but their most recent game against the Bruins was a sobering event that shows the Leafs how far they have to go to be a team that can beat Boston in four of seven playoff games.

Standings Position: 3rd

Record: 32-15-1

Projection: Staying well ahead of the wild-card race; adding a veteran or two for playoff depth purposes; finally losing out in the first round, leading to significant roster change.

Why: Is this the year the Lightning finally show the wear and tear of being the NHL’s best team in recent memory? It feels foolish to doubt them, but as a result of a cap crunch that’s going to really hamstring them next season, they’re not as deep of a group. This could indeed be the year Toronto exorcises its demons against Tampa by eliminating them in a first-round playoff matchup.

However, in their favor, the Bolts have not lost more than two straight games once this season. They remain one of the best-coached franchises in the league, and GM Julien BriseBois always seems to find the right depth acquisition at the trade deadline to give his team a legitimate chance to win, no matter who they play. 

BriseBois has only approximately $719,000 in cap space per CapFriendly, but we can see him trading for someone like Canucks defenseman (and former Lightning blueliner) Luke Schenn or currently-injured Blue Jackets forward Gustav Nyquist.

The Bolts are likely to go only as far as star netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy carries them, and next year, they have just $3.1 million in cap space, with only 14 players under contract. The noose is slowly tightening on them, and while they may defy the odds once again and go on a lengthy playoff run, it’s also possible that they finally run out of good fortune and good-enough talent to keep them as a playoff favorite in the East.

Standings Position: 4th

Record: 26-20-4

Projection: Staying in the playoff race right up to the end of the regular season; surprising the two current wild-card teams in Pittsburgh and Washington and earning their first playoff appearance since 2010-11; being a dark horse big-trade candidate by the trade deadline

Why: The Sabres dropped their final two games before the all-star break, but immediately prior to that, they reeled off five straight wins, including impressive victories over the New York Islanders, Dallas Stars, and Winnipeg Jets. 

That’s pulled them within four points of the seventh-place Capitals (with three games in hand) and within one point of eighth-place Pittsburgh. That’s a tantalizing place to be for an organization that’s regularly let down its fans in the past decade.

The Sabres might not get into the post-season, but you know what? We’ve got a good hunch about them. 

Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams has more than $18.2 million in cap space at the moment – with that number skyrocketing by the deadline. It’s time for him to use that flexibility to bring in some veterans – Chychrun, Timo Meier – and keep them around after this year. If they find the right two or three veterans, it’s very feasible that the Sabres, at long last, will give their fans post-season hockey. We like their chances.