As the 2025 NHL off-season continues to unfold, there’s a sentiment out there that Toronto Maple Leafs star right winger and looming UFA Mitch Marner is about to have his time with the team reach an end. But is that really the best decision for the franchise?
We’re going to argue below that there is a scenario that could see Marner back in Blue and White, and thwart other teams’ efforts to pluck him away from the Buds.
First and foremost, any new contract for Marner in Toronto has to fall into one specific category: namely, it has to be for no more money than the salary of Maple Leafs superstar center Auston Matthews.
If Marner wants one penny more than the $13.25 million Matthews is making for the next three seasons, Leafs GM Brad Treliving needs to thank Marner for his service and agree to part ways. As is the case in many other markets – most notably, in Colorado, where no Avalanche player makes more than star center Nathan MacKinnon – Toronto has to send a message not only to Matthews, but to the rest of the Leafs lineup. And that message is that there’s a financial hierarchy at play here, and Marner hasn’t done enough to warrant being the team’s highest-paid player.
In addition, any new contract for Marner cannot have full no-trade or no-move protection. Can you give Marner a partial no-trade in his next deal? Sure you can. But a full no-trade should be a non-starter in negotiations. Marner has to recognize that, if he comes back to Toronto and things don’t pan out team-wise, Leafs management has to assert some degree of control over the roster. And that means having the ability to trade Marner to, say, 10 or 15 teams. If Marner balks at that ask from management, then Treliving can wish Marner well with his new team.
But with that out of the way, we suggest Marner needs to come back, because if he doesn’t, his regular-season point production won’t be easily replaced. Sure, we can pretend that Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett can replace Marner, but many hockey observers are assuming Bennett will find a way to stay in Florida. And unless Treliving can identify and acquire a Grade-A star on the trade market, the Leafs’ high-octane offense will definitely take a backward step with Marner playing for another team.
At 28 years old, Marner is in his prime, and replacing his career-high 75 assists and 102 points from this season will be close to impossible. If the Leafs were interested in trading him, it needed to be before his no-trade clause kicked in. But that ship sailed long ago, and now, Toronto has to find a way to salvage this asset. That means striking a deal with Marner that assures him of a raise, but that respects the Leafs’ monetary food chain. If Treliving can do that, the Buds will be stronger for it, and in a rising salary cap world, Toronto will have some cap flexibility moving forward.
Letting Marner walk away will be an option for the Maple Leafs, but it should be a secondary option. The primary option should be hanging onto his services at least through next season. And if at that point the Leafs still aren’t going far in the playoffs, Toronto can explore dealing Marner – but they’d be doing so from a position of strength. Right now, Marner has all the strength and all the leverage. That needs to change, and if Marner’s not down with it…well, you know what the answer will have to be at that point.
But for the moment, there’s still time to figure out a way to retain Marner. The emotion of Toronto’s second-round exit at the hands of the Panthers has now subsided, and both Marner and Treliving should be examining every possibility that leads to him re-signing with the Buds. But it ultimately has to be on the Leafs’ terms. And if it isn’t, the Marner Era will rightfully come to an end.
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