Gavin McKenna has flaws. He's not scoring at even strength as much as former top NHL draft prospects in the NCAA. But there's still lots to like about the projected first pick in 2026.
Gavin McKenna's been the projected first overall pick in the 2026 NHL draft for a few years now, and it's easy to see why.
He dominated the WHL to the tune of 244 points in 133 career games, capped by 129 points in 56 games last season. The CHL player of the year led the Medicine Hat Tigers to the Memorial Cup final, falling short to OHL London.
Moving to Penn State felt like the right choice for McKenna's draft year, and the NCAA's rule change allowing CHL players couldn't have changed at a better time. He could face bigger, faster and stronger players.
But now, the play of the former Tiger and current Nittany Lion is the elephant in the room for public analysts and team-affiliated amateur scouts.
McKenna looks good, but he hasn't looked great.
As a 5-foot-11 left winger who isn’t a burner, McKenna will need to get back into his groove to avoid discussion about whether he is truly the first overall prospect everyone expected him to be for years.
Despite his overwhelming offensive production and intelligence in the WHL, there were flaws in his game. It’s easy to forgive a lazy backcheck or a less-than-stellar effort in the corners when he's showing off his immense skill and averaging more than two points per game.
That’s why going to college made so much sense. The higher-level competition challenges his strengths and pushes him to improve his weaknesses.
Statistically speaking, 15 points in 14 NCAA games is solid for a player who turns 18 in December.
Only four of his points have come at 5-on-5. That’s just 26.6 percent of his total points. Nine have come on the power play, one at 4-on-4 in overtime and one on an empty-netter. Sixty percent of his points coming with the man advantage is astoundingly high.
NHL teams recognize relying on the power play to that extent isn’t conducive to long-term success. Scoring at 5-on-5 is the most important skill in hockey for a forward.
It’s why NHL players like Auston Matthews or Nathan MacKinnon have as much success as they do. They are generally considered two of the most lethal even-strength players in hockey. On the flip side, players like Nick Schmaltz or late-career Steven Stamkos are less valuable overall because they rely more on the power play.
NHL teams are only on the power play for about three to six minutes per game this season. Even if you play between 60 and 70 percent of your team’s power-play time, you must find a way to be effective at even strength.
When comparing McKenna with those who played in the NCAA during their draft-eligible seasons, the level of concern only grows.
Macklin Celebrini, Adam Fantilli and Jack Eichel are the obvious names that come to mind, having been drafted in the last decade. Defender Zeev Buium put up massive numbers in his draft year a couple of years ago as well.
Each of those forwards was drafted in the top three picks. Buium was drafted 12th overall with some size and defensive concerns, although both seem to be a bit overblown now that he’s in the NHL playing a solid role as a rookie.
Below is a chart with the production, power-play production and percentage of power-play reliance for McKenna and notable former draft-eligible NCAA players through their first 14 games of the draft-eligible season.
Fantilli and Eichel were a couple of months older than McKenna at this stage of the season. Buium was a few weeks older. Celebrini was six months younger. The production those players put up was unreal. Each of them won the Hobey Baker as men's college hockey's best player. Zeev Buium was a nominee for the award. They were top draft picks for a reason.
As of now, McKenna’s production is more in line with James Hagens, Kent Johnson and Matty Beniers. They were top 10 picks, with Johnson and Beniers becoming very good NHLers. Hagens is having a decent start to his sophomore season at Boston College.
The concerning part about those statistics above is that not only have Fantilli, Celebrini, Eichel, Buium and Hagens outscored McKenna to this point, but the percentage of his points coming on the power play is well above the rest. It's more than double the percentage of Beniers, Eichel and Hagens, and it's about 20 percentage points higher than Celebrini.
Scoring on the power play is certainly a skill, but it’s a bit of a specialized skill. It’s best when it’s added on top of a well-versed 5-on-5 skill set.
The power-play reliance isn’t the only concern in McKenna’s game, though. His poor defensive habits and lack of engagement away from the puck are significant issues that NHL scouts and analysts have noted.
McKenna has been known to cheat for offense from time to time, and he’s done that plenty at the NCAA level. He’s been bullied physically at times, especially when Penn State has played bigger, stronger schools, such as Michigan or Michigan State. His defensive issues stem from a lack of engagement and commitment, not from a lack of skill or ability.
Unfortunately, scouts and analysts only have so much time. They heavily rely on limited viewings from showcase events, such as the World Junior Championship or World Men's Under-18s, especially for players who aren’t in their draft years. That makes it easy to make judgments on small samples. McKenna was genuinely one of the few bright spots on the Canadian world junior squad last year. At the U-18s, McKenna had 20 points in seven games as a 16-year-old.
Those showcase events and his WHL stat line over the last couple of seasons made it easy to ignore McKenna's issues. Quite frankly, it made it easy to call him the next generational prospect without diving into his game fully and analyzing what he actually is – a highly skilled offensive player who could be a 100-point NHLer one day, albeit with flaws in his game.
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When looking at other draft-eligible players in the NCAA, McKenna leads the way in scoring, but he's not doing so by leaps and bounds as expected.
Adam Valentini has done quite well for Michigan with 13 points in 14 games. Valentini outduelled McKenna in a recent matchup, scoring a goal and adding two assists, while McKenna went scoreless and finished minus-4. While McKenna received an A-grade from NHL Central Scouting, Valentini surprisingly landed with a W-grade, implying he is a late-round pick or undrafted player.
Ilia Morozov, a forward for Miami University-Ohio, is slightly outpacing McKenna with 11 points through 10 games. He's been a fun surprise to start the season, and he's not expected to be on McKenna's level. He's eight months younger than the presumptive first overall pick and playing at nearly the same level to start the year. Morozov received a B-grade from NHL Central Scouting.
Even Keaton Verhoeff, a defender for the University of North Dakota, has looked great to start the season. While his eight points don't match McKenna's 15, he's an excellent example of someone with much more substance to his game outside of the production. Although they play different positions, Verhoeff excels in the areas where McKenna struggles.
There is plenty of belief that McKenna will find his groove in the NCAA.
The playmaker paints the offensive zone with bold passes, as if he's creating a work of art. His vision and ability to find the smallest seam to set up a teammate are elite.
His puckhandling is creative and daring, consistently putting opposing players in compromising positions.
In other words, McKenna is a force with the puck.
But he might not be a generational player, the way Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid are. In fairness, McKenna shouldn't have ever had those kinds of expectations placed on him.
McKenna could be on the same level as Patrick Kane and Mitch Marner, two players who have been dominant offensive forces in the NHL. A player who reaches that level isn’t a disappointment. They are still franchise-altering offensive talents.
If McKenna has a career similar to either of those players, the team that drafts him will be extremely pleased.
So while alarm bells ring right now, McKenna will almost certainly put up incredible numbers, sign massive contracts and be a major part of any success that his team has.
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