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My pre-season predictions not far off mark

I was most off in my Metropolitan Division predictions. Who would have guessed that group of eight teams could underperform like they have. My calls in the West are a fair bit better.
The Hockey News

The Hockey News

A few weeks ago, my editing associate Ronnie Shuker did a Thanksgiving report card on how his pre-season predictions are doing so far. He came up with a method of measuring a perfect prediction for all 30 teams against the worst possible prediction for each club.

For example, he picked Minnesota to finish fifth in the Central, so the furthest the Wild could end up from his prediction is first, which would mean a difference of four. Add that up for every team and you get 154.

He crunched his own numbers and came up with a 62 percent accuracy rating. Not bad Ronnie. Maybe I'll see how my pre-season prediction stack up against reality and yours. (Ronnie and I see eye-to-eye on a lot of editing matters, but not so much when it comes to hockey.)

My biggest miss was Carolina. I had the Hurricanes finishing seventh in the Metropolitan, ahead of just New Jersey. Carolina is treading water, but because that division is so weak, the Hurricanes are in third place – a miss of four spots.

I missed the New York Rangers, New York Islanders and Anaheim Ducks by three spots in their respective divisions, the former two being significantly poorer than I had envisioned. Other than those four teams, I did reasonably well. I had a perfect prediction or was one spot off for 19 of the 30 teams – a little better than Ronnie.

My accuracy rating overall is 72 percent so I have a leg up on Mr. Shuker. With more than half a season to go though, it's far too early to gloat.

TEAM

ORIGINAL PREDICTION

DIFFERENCE

ANAHEIM

4

3

LOS ANGELES

1

1

SAN JOSE

2

1

VANCOUVER

3

1

PHOENIX

7

2

CALGARY

6

1

EDMONTON

5

2

TEAM

ORIGINAL PREDICTION

DIFFERENCE

CHICAGO

2

1

ST. LOUIS

1

1

COLORADO

4

1

MINNESOTA

3

1

DALLAS

7

2

NASHVILLE

5

1

WINNIPEG

6

1

TEAM

ORIGINAL PREDICTION

DIFFERENCE

BOSTON

1

0

MONTREAL

3

1

TAMPA BAY

5

2

DETROIT

2

2

TORONTO

6

1

OTTAWA

4

2

FLORIDA

8

1

BUFFALO

7

1

TEAM

ORIGINAL PREDICTION

DIFFERENCE

PITTSBURGH

1

0

WASHINGTON

3

1

CAROLINA

7

4

PHILADELPHIA

4

0

NY RANGERS

2

3

NEW JERSEY

8

2

COLUMBUS

6

1

NY ISLANDERS

5

3

Total: 43

Accuracy: 72%

Brian Costello is The Hockey News’s senior editor and a regular contributor to the thn.com Post-To-Post blogFor more great profiles, news and views from the world of hockey, subscribe to The Hockey News magazineFollow Brian Costello on Twitter at @BCostelloTHN

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