The Florida Panthers lead the pack challenging the Penguins and Islanders for a wild card. But Adam Proteau thinks it'll be tough for them to make it.
At this time last season, the Florida Panthers were in the early stages of a remarkable stretch of hockey, in which they went 22-2-1 and finished the year off with an NHL-best 58-18-6 record and the league’s President’s Trophy.
The Panthers looked unstoppable for the most part at the end of the regular season, and they beat the Washington Capitals in six games in the first round of the playoffs. But then they got mauled by the Tampa Bay Lightning in a second-round sweep, and Florida just hasn’t been the same ever since.
Indeed, the 2022-23 regular season has been a regular and ongoing disappointment for the Panthers.
Although they’re currently playing at a better clip – they’re 11-5-1 in their past 17 games and beat Montreal 9-5 on Thursday – the crater Florida dug for itself at the start of the season means a lot has to go right beyond the Panthers’ control in order for them to earn a wild-card playoff berth. And there are many reasons why it very likely may be a case of too little, too late for Florida.
For starters, let’s look at the games that remain on the schedule for the Panthers. In the 14 games Florida has left, only three come against relatively soft touches (one game each against Montreal, Columbus and Philadelphia). The rest all come against teams ready, willing and able to play spoiler for the Panthers’ post-season aspirations.
It’s going to take a much more consistent winning effort than Florida has been able to post for much of this year. The best the Panthers have been able to achieve this season is a pair of modest, three-game win streaks. They’ll need at least another three-game win streak, and probably, many more consecutive wins than that, if they’re going to be a wild-card team.
But even if Florida manages to string together a bunch of wins, they also have to hope the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Islanders – who currently occupy the first and second wild cards, respectively – stumble and crumble under the pressure of the playoff race.
The Pens and the Isles made major moves before the league’s March 3 trade deadline, and they’ve got the same 6-3-1 record in their past 10 games as the Panthers. Florida is three points behind the Penguins and Islanders, and while the Panthers have two games in hand on the Isles, those two teams aren’t the only ones who can put nails in Florida’s coffin.
We speak of the Buffalo Sabres, a team desperate to make the playoffs. The Sabres are three points behind Florida, and they have a game in hand on the Panthers.
And we speak of the Ottawa Senators, who are five points behind Florida. Even the Washington Capitals – who are two points behind the Panthers, with Florida holding a game in hand on them – could derail the Panthers’ post-season hopes.
In their final 14 games, Florida has two games against the Senators, two games against Toronto and one game each against Washington, the New York Rangers, the Carolina Hurricanes, the Sabres and the New Jersey Devils. Florida needs many of those teams to have multiple-losing streaks for the rest of this season, and that’s not at all likely to happen.
This time last season, the Panthers were a confident group that eventually had its season ended by a Lightning squad firing on all pistons. At this moment, the Panthers are a weaker team. If they can beat the odds and make the playoffs, they’re destined for a first-round date with the outstanding Boston Bruins or the similarly well-run Hurricanes or Devils.
In any of those potential first-round matchups, Florida would be considered a heavy underdog, and rightfully so. Maybe that’s where they need to be to tap into their talent adequately, but maybe the Panthers take a step back and either get their lunch handed to them in the first round or, even worse, they don’t make the playoffs at all.
And if that happens, then what? Are the Panthers going to change coaches again? Can’t see that taking place. It’s more likely GM Bill Zito will be held accountable, and he goes out and performs major roster surgery in the off-season, trying to hold on to his job.
There are intriguing days ahead for the Panthers, one way or another.