The Chicago Blackhawks will get a significant boost in their rebuild with the No. 1 pick in the NHL draft. Jacob Stoller examines other key tasks for the team this off-season.
The Chicago Blackhawks will get a significant boost in their rebuild with the No. 1 pick in the NHL draft. Jacob Stoller examines other key tasks for the team this off-season.
The table is set for GM Kyle Davidson to revive the Chicago Blackhawks as perennial contenders.
Chicago’s GM has lots of chips to play with.
They’ve got the No. 1 pick in this June’s draft, which they’ll undoubtedly use to select a generational talent in Connor Bedard. Cornerstone player — check.
They’ve got an embarrassment of riches in assets, boasting lucrative draft capital — with six first-round selections in the next three drafts — and the second-most cap space of any NHL team ($37.6 million) this off-season, according to CapFriendly. They’ve also got promising up-and-coming prospects in Kevin Korchinski (14th in THN's Future Watch issue), Lukas Reichel (16th) and Frank Nazar (96th) in the cupboard, too.
In terms of NHL personnel? Things are pretty bleak for Chicago right now. But Chicago still has to slap together a team for next year, and the way in which it goes about that could have long-term ramifications. That is, assuming the Blackhawks don’t play their cards right.
So, how should Chicago’s front office approach this off-season? Here’s a blueprint.
Patience is a Virtue
You can’t build a contender overnight.
If this were the NBA and a big-market team had the equivalent purchasing power as the Blackhawks do in the NHL, you’d see a super team form overnight. But when it comes to roster construction, the NHL and NBA are polar opposites — superstars seldom hit free agency in the former, whereas the latter has superstar talents hit the open market annually.
And even by NHL standards, the Blackhawks are a long way from contending.
Bedard is joining a skeleton of an NHL club — a far cry from what recent generational talents like Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid walked into when they entered the league. Crosby joined a Penguins team that, on top of having Evgeni Malkin waiting in the wings, had high-end players in Mario Lemieux, Sergei Gonchar and Mark Recchi on the roster. McDavid had Taylor Hall, Leon Draisaitl and Jordan Eberle awaiting him in Oil Country.
Still, Crosby and McDavid missed the playoffs in their rookie season (though they both reached the post-season in their sophomore years). If McDavid and Crosby couldn’t single-handedly will their teams to the playoffs as rookies, there’s no way Bedard will be able to with a team that features just one ‘star’ player in Seth Jones. To win the Stanley Cup, you often need at least five star players, according to hockeyprospecting.com — which defines a star forward as someone who averages at least 0.70 points per game, whereas a defenseman averages at least 0.40 points per game.
Chicago has a ways to go, and attempting to fast-track the rebuild — by overpaying free agents and trading valuable draft capital for players — will only make things worse.
When building a team from the ground up, you need a strong asset management strategy. It’s imperative that Chicago collect picks and prospects in the immediate future, as opposed to giving them away. Now, there could come a time in the not-so-distant future when a cost-controlled star in his prime becomes available — like we’ve seen with Matthew Tkachuk, Patrik Laine and Pierre-Luc Dubois recently — and the Blackhawks would be wise to pounce. But Chicago needs ammo to enter those types of sweepstakes.
Weaponize Salary Cap Space
One of the strategies we’ve seen arise in the flat-cap climate is weaponizing cap space to acquire assets. Chicago, of course, has the resources to go that route, as the team is currently about $15.8 million dollars under the cap floor, according to CapFriendly.
While the Blackhawks will probably seek out deals where they can leverage their space for a high draft pick – as Philadelphia did by acquiring Cal Petersen on June 6 — they can also leverage their space in another regard. Let's take a step back for a second and remember that the Blackhawks still need to ice a roster next year. Will they be aiming to assemble a playoff contender? Heck no. That said, they should still look for higher-end players that can play alongside Bedard and ensure the soon-to-be 18-year-old isn’t on an island with his skill set.
Recently, we’ve seen teams leverage their cap space to acquire quality, albeit overpriced, players for pennies on the dollar, given the expensive price tag. The Carolina Hurricanes have capitalized on this market inefficiency recently, acquiring Max Pacioretty for future considerations and Brent Burns for a third-round pick, two depth players and a 34-percent retention of Burns’ $8-million cap hit. The Seattle Kraken paid a third- and fourth-round pick for Oliver Bjorkstrand ($5.4-million cap hit), who recorded 20 goals and 45 points with them this year.
By that same token, two players that could make sense for Chicago are Conor Garland and Kevin Hayes. Both players are under contract for the next three seasons.
Garland ($4.95-million cap hit) is a versatile top-nine forward that could be acquired for relatively cheap, given how desperate the Vancouver Canucks are to clear cap space.
Hayes ($7.14-million cap hit) is coming off a career-high 54-point year with a Philadelphia Flyers team that’s in the midst of a makeover this off-season. If Hayes becomes available — his modified no-trade clause allows him to submit a list of 12 teams he would not go to, according to CapFriendly — he’d be a sound stop-gap in Chicago’s top six.
Chicago could also buy low on players like Anthony Mantha and Taylor Hall, with the hopes of converting them into premium deadline assets (especially if they retain salary).
Mantha has a $5.7-million cap hit for one more season and could probably be had for a fair price after three seasons to forget with the Washington Capitals. The 28-year-old forward would have every opportunity in Chicago to revive himself as the 20-goal scorer he was with the Detroit Red Wings.
Hall and his $6-million cap hit for two more seasons could be a really good fit for a few reasons. On the ice, the 31-year-old's speed would look nice alongside a sniper like Bedard. Off the ice, Hall was a No. 1 pick, and he could serve as a valuable mentor for Bedard in his formative years. Playing in Chicago would forge Hall the chance to regain his stature as a top-tier player after fading into a support role with the Boston Bruins this year. Hall has modified trade protection and can submit a 10-team no-trade list as of July 1, according to CapFriendly.
Create a Winning Culture
While it may sound cliche and counterintuitive to the whole ideology of being patient, the Blackhawks don’t want a toxic tanking mentality to erode their rebuild.
From an outside lens, a rebuild is just about being bad for a while, drafting top players and then being good in a few years. But it doesn’t work out that quickly, nor is a positive outcome guaranteed. If you want those top prospects to blossom, you can’t have them entrenched in a losing culture (like Buffalo’s previous regime).
That’s where that good ‘ol hockey buzzword of “character” comes into play. One league source who had previously worked for a rebuilding team pointed out the importance of a team like Chicago bringing in the right people next season.
“You want sore losers, not complacent losers,” the source told The Hockey News.
This premise will surely guide where the Blackhawks decide to spend their money once free agency rolls around.
Go Bargain-Bin Shopping
Even if this wasn’t one of the weaker free agency crops in recent memory, Chicago should be steering clear of signing long-term deals.
The Blackhawks should prioritize finding players they can turn into assets at the deadline this year. Chicago has a lot to offer to second- and third-tier free agents.
The sales pitch should sound something like this: Unhappy with the offers you’re getting so far? Sign with us, and you could play a top role and maybe even get shipped off to a contender at the deadline, where you can raise your stock for your next contract.
Chicago could also be more inclined to take the plunge and claim players off waivers during training camp. The wire often becomes flooded with depth pieces that rarely get claimed.
At this stage in the game, Chicago should take any swing it can when it comes to low-risk, high-reward players. While most teams are more concerned about their own depth than other teams when the waiver wire becomes a traffic jam in September — Chicago is going to have limited depth and all the incentive to take someone. The emergence of players like Carter Verhaeghe, Yanni Gourde and Jonathan Marchessault has demonstrated the importance of giving a chance to players that possess all the desired traits but, for whatever reason, haven’t been able to figure it out in the NHL.
If a player like Alex Barre-Boulet or Matthew Phillips is on the wire, Chicago should pounce all over that.
Barre-Boulet has been an elite AHL player ever since breaking into the league at 21 years old. Barre-Boulet has combined for 109 goals and 283 points in the AHL since the 2018-19 season, second to only T.J. Tynan (332).
Phillips, who broke into the league at the same time as Barre-Boulet did, has scored the most 5-on-5 points in the league (137). The 5-foot-7 forward was named to the AHL’s first all-star team this season.
The Chicago Blackhawks aren't anywhere near their Cup-winning ways at the moment. But with all the routes they can follow this off-season, they could return to the contender conversation a few years down the road.