Adam Proteau analyzes the Florida Panthers, whose playoff hopes are at risk of being endangered with inconsistent results.
The Florida Panthers had a masterful, dominant 2021-22 season, but this year, they’ve struggled, almost from the get-go, right until now.
After stumbling out to a 9-6-1 record, they’ve gone 6-8-3. And they’ve yet to produce a winning streak of three games or more – in fact, they’ve had a two-game win streak just three times, and they’ve also had losing streaks of between two and three games four times. And for their past eight games, they haven’t been able to win at least two games even once.
It’s no surprise, then, that the Panthers currently sit tied for fourth place in the Atlantic Division – although, technically, they’re fifth, as the actual fourth-place Buffalo Sabres have one game in hand on them – and they’ve got the Detroit Red Wings (33 standings points, with two games in hand on Florida), the Montreal Canadiens (32 points, with one game in hand on the Panthers) and the relatively-rejuvenated Ottawa Senators (30 points, with one game in hand on Florida) nipping at their heels.
All it’s going to take is another losing streak for the Panthers to fall one or two spots in the Atlantic. And given the inconsistent way they’re playing, that’s entirely feasible.
When Florida wins this season, they tend to win with relative ease: 11 of their victories have come by two goals or more, and seven of their wins have been by three goals or more.
At times, they do look like the team that won the President’s Trophy as the NHL’s best regular-season organization last year with a 58-18-6 mark. However, when they lose, the Panthers also lose big: 12 defeats have been by two goals or more, and five losses have been by three goals or more. As often as not, Florida tempts their fan base into believing they’re completely right back on track, only to snuff out that optimism with efforts that are disappointing, to say the least.
For a while, much of the blame for the Panthers’ woes could be laid at the feet of veteran goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. The 34-year-old began the season by posting an unacceptable .897 save percentage and 3.06 goals-against average in six games in October, then followed that up with a worse showing in November (.860 SP, 4.70 GAA in six games). However, Bobrovsky has performed much better this month (2.26 GAA, .923 SP in six games). He just hasn’t had enough offensive support night in and night out to support his season numbers (3.26 GAA, .894 SP in 19 appearances).
Compounding Florida’s problems is their salary cap situation.
Even with veteran wingers Anthony Duclair and Patric Hornqvist on the long-term injured reserve, the Panthers are completely capped out – and, as per Cap Friendly, they’re projected to have only $600,125 by the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline.
Unless they take away assets from the roster, there won't be any outside help coming in for this group. Florida GM Bill Zito doesn’t have any of his first-round draft picks to move in a trade, and to be frank, he doesn’t have a wealth of players any other franchise would want or be able to take on at this point. This is more or less the lineup that has to turn things around for them.
And again, salvaging this season for the Panthers is much more complicated than them just winning more games than they don’t. They also need to hope the Sabres, Red Wings, Habs and Sens don’t reel off a slew of victories, and they have to hope the top Atlantic teams (the Boston Bruins, Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning) sag badly and open up a spot or two for the current non-playoff teams. When the divisional matchups take place the rest of this year, someone is going to come away with the two points, and that will not be good news for Florida.
It says something about the NHL’s thin line between winners and losers that a team could win the President’s Trophy one year and miss the playoffs the next year, but that’s a painfully real possibility now for the Panthers. As we steam forward toward the halfway point of the regular season, Florida has increasingly less precious time to figure out what ails them and begins to dominate again. A .500 record the rest of the way isn’t going to get it done.
It feels strange to suggest there are must-win games for teams before Christmas time, but the Panthers sure can’t afford to lose a whole lot more.