Adam Proteau projects the near future for four Atlantic Division clubs. What could be in store for the Panthers, Senators, Red Wings and Canadiens?
Adam Proteau projects the near future for four Atlantic Division clubs. What could be in store for the Panthers, Senators, Red Wings and Canadiens?
The NHL is on the final day of its weeklong all-star break, and we’re continuing to take stock of each team and project where we see them headed through the league’s March 3 trade deadline and the rest of the year.
We started the breakdowns Monday with the bottom four teams in the Pacific Division. Tuesday, we turned to the top four Pacific teams.
On Wednesday and Thursday, we analyzed the bottom four and top four teams in the Central Division.
We focused on the bottom four Metropolitan Division teams on Friday and the top four on Saturday.
Today, we’re examining the bottom four teams in the Atlantic Division.
Florida Panthers
Standings Position: 5th
Record: 24-22-6
Projection: Fighting on the fringes of the NHL wild-card playoff race; going all-in at the trade deadline; not going far in the post-season, even if they make it there.
Why: For a while, beginning in early January, the Panthers looked like they’d turned things around on their season, posting a 7-2-1 record to improve to 23-20-5. However, the optimism of that run was immediately blunted with a three-game losing skid in which they were outscored 17-11. This is another indication of how far Florida has fallen this season. Anytime they look like they’ve got momentum on their side – and that hasn’t happened often, as they haven’t won more than two straight games all season long – the Panthers underwhelm and underachieve.
As per CapFriendly, Florida GM Bill Zito is completely out of salary cap space at the moment, and they’re projected to have just $2.3 million to use at the trade deadline. Zito could be in the market for a veteran goaltender – a James Reimer or a Karel Vejmelka – to add insurance behind inconsistent No. 1 netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, but he’ll have to be creative, and he’ll also have to make deals without much in the way of draft picks (they don’t have any of their first-rounders in the next three drafts) and elite prospects. By and large, the solutions must come internally.
Few teams have the immediate pressures the Panthers have right now – when they return to action, their first 13 post-all-star-break games have just three “gimmes” (San Jose, St. Louis, and Arizona). The other 10 are against legitimate playoff contenders (Tampa Bay twice, Colorado, Minnesota, Washington, Nashville twice, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Vegas). Unless Florida somehow dominates through that stretch, they will be behind the eight-ball as they try to fight off Ottawa and Detroit below them and the Sabres, Penguins and Capitals above them in the wild-card fight.
We said it nearly a month ago, and we still mean it: at least one of the Panthers and Edmonton Oilers will miss the playoffs this year. The Oilers have bounced back (although they’re not out of the woods yet), but the Panthers haven’t shown us any evidence to believe they’ll be in the playoff mix come mid-April.
Ottawa Senators
Standings Position: 6th
Record: 24-23-3
Projection: Pushing slightly upward in the Atlantic standings, yet not having the horses to deliver them to the playoffs; making significant changes to management and coaching in the off-season.
Why: The Senators were one of the NHL’s hotter teams entering the all-star break. They won four straight games and five of seven games to slowly claw up the Atlantic standings, as Ryan Kennedy and Mike Stephens discussed on this past week's The Hockey News Podcast.
Unfortunately, the hole they dug themselves just prior to that, dropping six of eight games, as well as their colossal seven-game losing skid in late October and early November, appears to be too large for them to crawl out of. With the team up for sale, there likely won't be any change on the GM and/or coaching front. But depending on how the Sens finish the year, that could change quickly this summer.
Ottawa has more than $18.7 million in cap space to use by the deadline, which is why they’re a favorite to land Coyotes defenseman Jakob Chychrun. Senators GM Pierre Dorion is projected to have $18 million in cap space this summer, but that’s a little deceptive, given that the Sens have only 11 players signed for the 2023-24 campaign. They can still go out and improve the team, but they can’t throw money at every available veteran.
Senators fans will rightly be frustrated at another season without playoff games, but their early-season crater, combined with the competition in the Atlantic and Eastern Conference in general, makes the post-season a fairly remote possibility this year.
Detroit Red Wings
Standings Position: 7th
Record: 21-19-8
Projection: Winning every other game they play, which won’t be good enough to get them into the post-season; peeling away a handful of veterans at the deadline as GM Steve Yzerman continues to have his eye on the future.
Why: Like the Senators, the Red Wings have disappointed this year. Since Dec. 6, they’ve gone 8-12-3 in the rest of their pre-all-star-break games, and they’re as far from the eighth-place Canadiens (six points) as they are to the fourth-place Sabres. First-year Wings goalie Ville Husso has improved their netminding, but Detroit’s defense has far too often lacked in quality. And their forwards haven’t been able to generate enough offense to make up for their subpar defensive play.
Yzerman has a whopping 11 players slated to be UFAs (and two RFAs) this summer, and he’s projected to have $28.6 million in cap space at the trade deadline, per CapFriendly. That puts the Wings in the enviable position to be not only a key selling team on the trade front but also a facilitator for cap-squeezed teams to make moves of consequence.
But in the short term, it looks like Detroit won’t have enough of a balance of productive youngsters and savvy veterans to get them into the playoffs. Wings fans won’t be pleased, but the rebuilding process can be longer than teams expect/hope. This is likely to be the case in Motown.
Montreal Canadiens
Standings Position: 8th
Record: 20-27-4
Projection: Trading veterans at the deadline; solidifying a spot at the very bottom of the Atlantic; an outside contender to win the Connor Bedard sweepstakes.
Why: Canadiens fans were not under any illusions their team would be a playoff team this year, but under coach Martin St-Louis, they’ve been more competitive than many expected.
That provided an aura of positivity, and Habs GM Kent Hughes will have attractive assets and $6.9 million in cap space to use by the deadline. Hughes has a handful of youngsters who won’t be moved under any circumstance, but Montreal still needs to add a few more kids to their core if they’re going to push back up the Atlantic standings. The best way to do that is through the draft, and they’ve got five first-round picks in the next three drafts. That’s important.
Once the Canadiens trade away some veterans, they’ll be less competitive than before, and that’s a good thing. It will give them better odds at landing phenom prospect Bedard. Even if they don’t win the draft lottery, Montreal will come away with a keeper talent near the top of the draft. The Habs are handling things the right way, but the right way means they’ll have to lose quite a bit more for the rest of this season.