The Toronto Maple Leafs tried something different this year by hiring a new GM and bringing in some fresh faces. Adam Proteau examines their biggest positive and greatest remaining need this off-season.
Welcome to the newest file in THN.com’s “off-season outlook” series, in which we examine each NHL team’s recent season, as well as break down its strengths and weaknesses as the 2023-24 season approaches. We’ve been looking at teams in alphabetical order, and on this day, we’re focused on the Toronto Maple Leafs.
2022-23 Grade: A
Biggest Positive Heading Into the Off-Season
Lost amid the turbulence of the Maple Leafs’ drubbing in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs this past spring was the fact Toronto had put together another solid regular season.
For the second straight year, the Buds finished second in the Atlantic Division, and they allowed 32 fewer goals against than in 2021-22. Coach Sheldon Keefe tinkered with his lines – the way all coaches are wont to do – and at long last, they conquered their first-round demons with an impressive six-game series win over Tampa Bay.
Much of the goodwill they amassed with the win over the Lightning evaporated after the Florida Panthers made quick work for them in Round 2, but if you’re going to be critical of the organization as a whole, you also have to acknowledge the positive steps they took as a group.
The Leafs’ off-season has been a productive one, with new GM Brad Treliving quickly putting his mark on the team via a slew of free-agent signings. And each signing projects to be an improvement on the veterans they lost to free agency.
Up front, pesky winger Michael Bunting departed for Carolina, but Treliving replaced his grit and scoring touch with a better player in Tyler Bertuzzi. Forward Alex Kerfoot left for greener economic pastures in Arizona, but Treliving improved on Kerfoot’s role when he signed Max Domi. Defenseman Justin Holl left for Detroit, but Treliving found a more potent offense-minded D-man in John Klingberg. And rugged winger Wayne Simmonds wasn’t re-signed, with Treliving signing the bigger, younger Ryan Reaves.
Ultimately, Toronto’s playoff fortunes still will depend on the performance of their Core Four (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander), but Treliving did very well with the salary cap space he had. As per PuckPedia, the Leafs are completely capped-out, but at least on paper, they have a considerably greasier (in a good way), more competitive lineup than they did at the end of the playoffs. Treliving deserves kudos for his early work.
Biggest Need Heading Into the Off-Season
The sole remaining area Treliving must address is Toronto’s goaltending. Oft-injured veteran Matt Murray remains under contract for the coming year, but it feels unlikely he’ll be back in Blue and White. With RFA Ilya Samsonov still needing a new contract and the promising youngster Joseph Woll signed to a very team-friendly deal, Murray simply has to go. Whether he leaves via a buyout or trade is all that’s left for him in Toronto. Otherwise, the Leafs are stacked at forward, and though they could probably use some depth additions on defense, that’s an area that can be addressed during the year.
Right now, the Leafs have got a tremendous mix of the aforementioned veterans and youngsters (Matthew Knies, Pontus Holmberg, Bobby McMann, Nick Robertson). As it was last season, they’ll be judged by their post-season run, but there’s no question they have the talent to finish at least in second place in the Atlantic. It may feel like an eternity between now and next April for Toronto fans, but they are a deep, dangerous group stacked on offense and not at all shabby in their own zone. That is cause for great optimism.
Bottom Line for Toronto This Off-Season
There remains some angst for Leafs fans regarding the contractual status of Matthews and Nylander, but we’ve said it for some time – Matthews almost assuredly will sign a contract extension. He has been treated royally by Leafs brass, and despite the stresses that come with playing in a hockey fishbowl, he’s held up extremely well. He likely won’t sign a maximum-term deal, but a three- or four-year contract is the most likely end result for him.
Nylander is another story altogether. If he wants more than $9 million per season, it’s probably time for him and the Leafs to part ways. (And if Bertuzzi flourishes in a top-six role, he could and likely would re-sign at a much lower number than Nylander and give the Leafs 20 to 30 goals.) The main question is whether Nylander could be traded for some legitimate top-four talent on defense. Though there’s no obvious candidate for Treliving to target on the back end, things could shake out unexpectedly during the season, and Toronto could wind up getting a long-term component on defense in exchange for Nylander.
As always, Leafs fans will be on pins and needles as the regular season plays out, but there’s every possibility Toronto will excel with this new look. Good health and peaking at the right time are obvious keys to their bottom line, but the Buds have a terrific mix from top to bottom. Treliving has to pick his spots in terms of trades now, but he’s already done most of the heavy lifting. Now it’s on the players to reward his confidence in them.