The race for the second wild card in the Eastern Conference is still alive as teams blow opportunities. Jason Chen ranks the 32 teams in the NHL power rankings.
Look, I know no one wants to play the Bruins, but this is getting ridiculous. With less than 10 games to go in the regular season, we are no closer to figuring out who will take the final wild-card spots. The Penguins, Panthers, Sabres, Senators and Capitals are all doing their darndest not to clinch, and it’s made for some interesting drama and moments where we just want to bury our heads because the quality of play has been so poor.
The race in the West is far more clear-cut, with only the Predators and Flames in contention among those on the outside looking in. Will the Jets fall out of the race? It’ll be one of the biggest collapses ever after challenging for the division title in the first half of the season. The West may have been the butt of the jokes early in the season, but the top 10 teams in points percentage are now split evenly between the East and West.
Here’s this week’s THN power rankings.
(All fancy stats are 5-on-5 and courtesy naturalstattrick.com. CF% stands for Corsi For Percentage and xGF% represents Expected Goals For Percentage.)
1. Boston Bruins (57-12-5, +117. CF% league rank: 15, xGF% league rank: 7)
While it’s mathematically possible for the Canes to catch the Bruins, in all likelihood, the Bruins will clinch the envied ‘p’ designation – as in clinched the Presidents’ Trophy for the league title. If the Bruins maintain their current pace, they’ll go down as the best team ever in the cap era.
2. New York Rangers (44-20-10, +53. CF%: 18, xGF%: 20)
They’ve lost only once in regulation in their past 11 games and may even end up clinching the division title. The Devils and Canes, who sit two and five points ahead, respectively, are a combined 8-9-3 in their past 10.
3. Toronto Maple Leafs (44-20-9, +48. CF%: 14, xGF%: 9)
Hopefully, the return of Ilya Samsonov can bring a little more stability in net. The Leafs have been solid all season, but Samsonov is their only goalie who has won three consecutive games this season, defeating the Sabres, Wild and Kraken in late February.
4. Carolina Hurricanes (47-17-9, +49. CF%: 1, xGF%: 1)
At first, I thought Rod Brind’Amour was giving Frederik Andersen a break, but now I’m starting to think that maybe he’s still undecided on who his No. 1 will be. Andersen is the incumbent, of course, but the Canes are really having trouble finding their footing with a 4-5-1 record since their four-game winning streak was snapped.
5. Edmonton Oilers (43-23-9, +44. CF%: 8, xGF%: 6)
The win against the Knights was a statement win. They’re crushing their opponents with their offense, and if they can just increase their scoring rate by just a tiny bit, they’ll join last year’s Panthers as the only teams in the cap era to average over four goals per game. They’re already on track to be the only team to finish over 30 percent in power play efficiency.
6. Vegas Golden Knights (46-22-6, +34. CF%: 22, xGF%: 16)
Jonathan Quick was pulled after two periods against the Oilers, and Laurent Brossoit didn’t fare much better in a game the Knights were dominated. If there is a single aspect that could doom their playoff run, it’s certainly their goaltending, no matter how much Bruce Cassidy tries to hide it.
7. Colorado Avalanche (44-23-6, +44. CF%: 9, xGF%: 13)
The defending champs are still the most terrifying team in the West, having lost just twice in 12 games. It’s been an easy schedule, but they’ve been dominant, highlighted by a power play that has converted 13 of 30 chances (43.3 percent).
8. Minnesota Wild (43-22-9, +25. CF%: 19, xGF%: 17)
Kirill who? Not to minimize the impact of Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury, but Matt Boldy has put the Wild on his back, and his line with Joel Eriksson Ek and Marcus Johansson have combined for 12 points in three games over the past week. All of their goals were scored by Boldy.
9. Los Angeles Kings (43-21-10, +21. CF%: 7, xGF%: 8)
Bad news: Despite being in the Pacific, the Kings have a pretty hard schedule coming up, with two games against the Oilers, two against the red-hot Canucks, and the Knights and Avs. Good news: Tuesday’s loss was only the first time they lost in regulation all month.
10. New Jersey Devils (46-20-8, +51. CF%: 4, xGF%: 2)
After going 8-0-0 in January, Vitek Vanecek is 8-5-2 with a .892 save percentage, lower than Mackenzie Blackwood (.918) and Akira Schmid (.916). He’ll be their starter in the playoffs, but perhaps the fatigue is showing, and it’s only going to get harder from here.
11. Dallas Stars (40-20-14, +50. CF%: 13, xGF%: 12)
Since his first job with the Panthers, Peter DeBoer has guided his team to the conference finals in his first year with a new club. I’m betting that streak ends this year; their first-round opponent will be either the Wild or Avs, and in both cases, the Stars are at a distinct disadvantage.
12. Tampa Bay Lightning (43-26-6, +27. CF%: 10, xGF%: 10)
Some signs of life, maybe? After losing four straight, the Lightning responded with an emphatic 4-0 win against the Canes, avoiding a season sweep and avenging a previous 6-0 loss. Performances like these are why we should never count them out.
13. Seattle Kraken (40-25-8, +18. CF%: 5, xGF%: 14)
There’s a shortage of quality goalies across the league, but the Kraken will head into the playoffs without a goalie with a save percentage above .900 or a GAA under 3.00. They’re buoyed by the second-best shooting percentage in the league, according to hockey-reference.com, despite not having a single superstar scorer.
14. New York Islanders (38-28-9, +18. CF%: 21, xGF%: 21)
Bo Horvat has scored only six goals in 23 games thanks to a shooting percentage that has cratered, but we knew that was coming, and yet he’s still dragging this team into the playoffs. Since joining the Isles, no other forward has generated more shot attempts at 5-on-5, won more faceoffs or averaged more ice time per game.
15. Winnipeg Jets (41-31-3, +9. CF%: 12, xGF%: 15)
We’re done with the Jets, yes? After ending December with the eighth-best points percentage (.635) in the league, they’ve ranked 21st (.500) since, and it sounds like half their team is leaving by the end of next season.
16. Pittsburgh Penguins (36-28-10, -4. CF%: 6, xGF%: 5)
The Pens went with Casey DeSmith for the third straight game, and, as you can guess, it didn’t go over so well. It’s a shame Ron Hextall hasn’t adequately addressed the needs of this team because this is also the first time in five (!) seasons both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have played over 70 games. That doesn’t happen very often, not to mention Crosby is arguably having one of his best seasons ever.
17. Florida Panthers (36-31-7, +1. CF%: 3, xGF%: 4)
Does anybody want that last wild-card spot in the East? The Isles are hanging on, the Pens can’t overcome their lack of depth, and the Panthers are mired in their longest losing streak of the season at the worst possible time.
18. St. Louis Blues (34-34-6, -31. CF%: 27, xGF%: 28)
Joel Hofer and Jordan Binnington are a combined 5-1-1 in their past seven games, and it might be a sneak peek into what their tandem can do next season. There’s a chance the Blues can turn their team around quickly, but it will take some major changes to their roster.
19. Vancouver Canucks (34-34-6, -18. CF%: 24, xGF%: 24)
In typical Canucks fashion, they’re ending the season on a hot streak, putting them potentially out of the Connor Bedard sweepstakes and teasing their fan base with misplaced optimism.
20. Nashville Predators (37-28-8, -11. CF%: 23, xGF%: 23)
There’s still a chance! A surprising 2-1 win against the Bruins avoids a third straight loss even though they’re missing their entire top line and defenseman, and the Preds sit just three points out of the final wild-card spot. The Preds face the Flames on April 10.
21. Calgary Flames (34-26-15, +5. CF%: 2, xGF%: 3)
The Flames are in the race, and it’s always tough to replicate success when the roster undergoes a sea change. If Darryl Sutter does not return next season, it’ll be the second time the Flames have made a change behind the bench the season after their coach wins the Jack Adams.
22. Ottawa Senators (36-33-5, -4. CF%: 16, xGF%: 19)
The playoffs aren’t out of reach. But according to tankathon.com, the Sens have the 10th-hardest schedule with two games against the Canes and one each against the Leafs and Lightning remaining. Does… Cam Talbot return in time to be the hero?
23. Buffalo Sabres (35-31-7, -10. CF%: 11, xGF%: 22)
Only two teams in the league can boast a league-high five players who have scored at least 60 points: the Stars and the Sabres. This has happened only one other time in Sabres history in the cap era – the 2006-07 season when they had six players who scored at least 60 points. They’ve got a good thing going, and they should be sure not to screw it up again.
24. Washington Capitals (34-32-8, +5. CF%: 17, xGF%: 18)
It was a quiet week for the Caps with only two games, but a 4-3 loss to the Pens dropped them to 3-5-3 in their past 11 games. They’re entering the Connor Bedard sweepstakes, and a power play featuring him, Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson would certainly be something.
25. Philadelphia Flyers (29-32-12, -40. CF%: 25, xGF%: 25)
During the Flyers’ four-game winning streak, the five forwards leading the team in average ice time are Joel Farabee, Owen Tippett, Noah Cates, Tyson Foerster and Morgan Frost. All of them are 23 and under. John Tortorella’s reputation precedes him, but one thing that’s allowed him to stay in the league for so long is his ability to change with the times, and few coaches bring along young players better than him.
26. Arizona Coyotes (27-35-13, -51. CF%: 30, xGF%: 30)
Serves me right for ranking the Coyotes so high last week; they’ve lost five in a row, their third-longest losing streak of the season. By the way, Nick Schmaltz is turning into a legit star player, averaging close to a point per game since last season, and he just extended his point streak to six games.
27. Detroit Red Wings (32-32-9, -26. CF%: 26, xGF%: 26)
Since their slump started on Feb. 25, the Wings are 4-11-1 and rank second-last in both points percentage and goals-for per game. After his summer spending spree, assuming the Wings maintain their current pace, they will have improved their points percentage by just .049.
28. Montreal Canadiens (30-39-6, -59. CF%: 28, xGF%: 29)
It’s hard not to notice when Michael Pezzetta is on the ice, especially when he pulls out one of the most outrageous cellys in history. The Habs have a very mixed record when it comes to drafting and developing, but note Pezzetta is the third player on their roster to be drafted in the sixth round or later, along with Rafael Harvey-Pinard and Jake Evans.
29. Columbus Blue Jackets (23-43-7, -93. CF%: 29, xGF%: 27)
Any time you’re rolling with Jon Gillies and Michael Hutchinson in net, two goalies who can barely be backups, the results aren’t going to be good. The Jackets have allowed seven goals three times in March and all of them have been in the past two weeks.
30. San Jose Sharks (20-39-15, -74. CF%: 20, xGF%: 11)
A shutout win against the Jets prevents the Sharks from finishing last for the second week in a row, and it also saves them from the humiliation of not having won a single game in regulation for an entire month.
31. Chicago Blackhawks (24-44-6, -86. CF%: 31, xGF%: 31)
If this is truly the final season for Jonathan Toews, he will finish fifth all-time in games played and sixth in points in Blackhawks history. His potential farewell tour should help gloss over the fact that they’ve lost 13 of their past 16 games.
32. Anaheim Ducks (23-41-10, -11. CF%: 32, xGF%: 32)
Truly, I have never seen a team that seems more complacent with losing than the Ducks. They won’t set the record for being the worst team in the cap era, but they’re definitely the worst defensively, on pace to be the only team to allow more than four goals per game. Dallas Eakins can’t last another season, can he?