Going all-in at the NHL trade deadline costs significant assets for a slightly better chance at a Stanley Cup. Jacob Stoller explains why three teams should wait until the summer.

We’re still over three weeks away from the NHL trade deadline, which leaves plenty of time for teams to identify if they’re buyers or sellers.

The next step up from being a buyer is being all-in. It’s a class reserved for teams with a legit shot of hoisting the Cup that are willing to pay an oftentimes hefty price for a rental player they believe can put them over the top.

But not every team looking for a playoff spot and Stanley Cup should be all-in. Sure, the Florida Panthers made a run to the final last year after squeaking into the second wild-card spot — but they were the NHL’s best team a year prior, and you could argue they were always better than their record. Nevertheless, there’s a clear difference between teams that are built to go all-in and those that have holes that can’t be filled — without exchanging an arm and a leg — at the deadline.

Without further adieu, let’s look at three teams that shouldn’t go all-in at this year's NHL trade deadline.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs are not one or two pieces away from being a legit Stanley Cup contender like last season.

Around this time last year, Toronto was fourth in league standings and looked as dangerous as any team out of the East. The players had given management every reason to pay a premium for Ryan O’Reilly, Jake McCabe, Sam Lafferty and Luke Schenn to shore up their depth chart.

But this year’s version of the Leafs sit just outside the top 10 of the NHL standings with a roster in need of a facelift.

Toronto’s problems start from the net out. Joseph Woll has been solid when called upon, but since he suffered a high-ankle sprain on Dec. 7, Ilya Samsonov and Martin Jones have combined for a .889 save percentage that ranks 29th leaguewide over the last 27 games, according to naturalstattrick.com.

Aside from Morgan Rielly, there’s not much to write home about on Toronto’s blueline. TJ Brodie is declining, Jake McCabe is a solid No. 3 but not a top-pairing defender, and Timothy Liljegren hasn’t taken the step forward many expected. Toronto’s back end needs another difference-maker (or two).

Up front, the Leafs have the most top-heavy offense in the NHL, per The Athletic. While that’s to be expected with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares each making more than $10 million, their secondary scoring has been rough. Off-season signings Max Domi, Tyler Bertuzzi and Ryan Reaves just haven’t panned out as expected.

Any attempt for Toronto to go all-in at a time when market prices are inflated would be short-sighted. Even with the salary cap set to rise at a more healthy rate going forward, the books will be tight for the Maple Leafs. Giving up picks or prospects who could be valuable contributors on entry-level contracts — such as Easton Cowan or Fraser Minten — wouldn’t be wise. They're better to try to make the most out of the players they've already acquired in the past year.

Pittsburgh Penguins

If the Pittsburgh Penguins want to be competitive in the twilight era of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang’s careers, they’ll need to take a step back to move forward.

Sitting seven points out of a wild-card spot, tensions are high in Pittsburgh after back-to-back losses to the Minnesota Wild and Winnipeg Jets on the weekend. 

Looking at it from a glass-half-full lens, it’s still entirely possible the Penguins make the playoffs, but from there, it’s hard to foresee this roster making any noise in the post-season. While Sidney Crosby continues to be a dominant force in his late 30s and Jake Guentzel is still in his prime, Evgeni Malkin is starting to decline, and the same can be said for Kris Letang, although to a lesser extent. Off-season acquisitions Reilly Smith and Erik Karlsson have seen varying dips in production, too.

Things just aren’t clicking this year.

Now, the issues at the top — like how this star-studded roster ranks 30th in power-play percentage — are magnified given Pittsburgh’s lack of depth. It would not be a stretch to suggest Pittsburgh has one of, if not the worst bottom-six of any team in the playoff race. A third line of Drew O’Connor, Lars Eller and Rickard Rakell would not fare well in the playoffs.

Their D-core has been out-of-sorts all year, and the flaws of having Karlsson and Letang logging big minutes have shined through. Their goaltending is a big reason why they rank sixth-best in the NHL in goals against per game.

Now, let’s make one thing clear: this doesn’t need to be the beginning of the end for Pittsburgh. But if they want to go on one last run with their legacy core, they need to re-tool. They can do it rather quickly, but it all starts with them punting on the 2023-24 season.

The Penguins must sell high on Guentzel and any other player (within reason) that can net them an asset. Pittsburgh has scarce asset capital, and diluting their trade chips even further to get into the post-season this year would be a repeat of last season.

Even if the Penguins get hot in the upcoming weeks, Dubas would be wise to resist any temptation to go all-in.

New Jersey Devils

It’s easy to talk yourself into thinking the New Jersey Devils should go all-in.

The East is wide open, right? Sure, the Devils struggled mightily in Jack Hughes’ absence, but he’s back now, and whenever he’s playing, New Jersey has proven to be an electric team. Plus, with Dougie Hamilton on the LTIR, the Devils have extra cap space to make trades.

But while the Devils shined in last year's playoffs and have all the makings to be the NHL’s next great powerhouse, they also need an off-season roster tune-up to reach their full potential. It goes beyond their goaltending issues (which they should sort out sooner rather than later). Hear me out.

First off, let’s evaluate the roster as a whole. When they’re at their best, the Devils are the NHL’s most dangerous rush-scoring team. Regarding personnel, New Jersey has loads of offensive talent surrounding Hughes in Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Tyler Toffoli, Timo Meier, Tyler Toffoli and youngster Alexander Holtz. They’ve also got playmakers on the back end – even with Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler injured — in youngsters Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec.

But there’s an argument that the Devils’ current roster configuration isn’t conducive to winning four playoff rounds. For starters, there’s a lot more scoring off the cycle and forecheck than there are rush chances in the post-season, where games are much tighter checking. According to microstats tracked by Corey Sznajder of allthreezones.com, the Devils rank 21st in 5-on-5 cycle and forecheck offense per 60 minutes this season. New Jersey has loads of skill up front, but they don’t have a third line that can neutralize opponents.

Secondly, their back end lacks a layer of physicality and experience that is a prerequisite for any legitimate cup contender. Which of their defenseman — Siegenthaler and Hamilton included — are you deploying against opponents’ top line in a seven-game playoff series? And how confident are you going to be with that matchup? 

The defensive issues are compounded by their goaltending woes, which contribute to the second-worst team save percentage in the NHL, per naturalstattrick.com.

GM Tom Fitzgerald has taken a methodical, long-term approach to building the Devils from the ground up, and it’s hard to foresee him veering away from that and going on an aggressive shopping spree.

For now, the Devils should let this core play out the year, have Nemec and Hughes play big-time minutes in critical games down the stretch, and then move around some of the puzzle pieces in the summer.