With the Colorado Avalanche out, the Dallas Stars have an easier path through the Western Conference if Seattle doesn't say otherwise, writes Adam Proteau.
With the Colorado Avalanche out, the Dallas Stars have an easier path through the Western Conference if Seattle doesn't say otherwise, writes Adam Proteau.
After an unpredictable first round for the NHL’s remaining Western Conference teams ended Sunday, the road to a Stanley Cup appears more wide-open than ever.
The defending Cup-champion Colorado Avalanche were sunk by the Seattle Kraken in Game 7 Sunday. That defeat sets up a second-round picture that is highly favorable to a team this writer has confidence in – the Dallas Stars.
The Stars were tested by the Minnesota Wild in Round 1, dropping Game 1 of the series and then allowing Minnesota to take a 2-1 series lead. But Dallas clamped down and took over the series from that point on, reeling off three straight wins to send the Wild home for the summer.
Dallas has home-ice advantage against the Kraken, and the Stars are rightfully favored to win Round 2 and move on to the NHL's Western Conference final against Edmonton or Vegas.
Now, nobody is suggesting Seattle is going to be a pushover in Round 2, but many of the team statistics point to a Dallas series victory. The Stars outscored the Wild 18-6 in their four first-round wins, and Dallas went 2-0-1 against Seattle during the regular season.
The Stars averaged 3.50 goals-for per game against Minnesota (third-best in the West, sixth-best of all playoff teams) and a 2.33 goals-against average (best in the West, second-best of all playoff teams).
The Stars’ power play ran at a 37.5 percent clip – third-best in the West and fourth-best of playoff teams. And Dallas’ penalty kill percentage was 81.8, third-best in the West and fourth-best of playoff teams.
Meanwhile, the Kraken avoided elimination by the skin of their teeth in Round 1, and their key stats reflect that reality. Seattle’s penalty kill was elite, with an 88.9 percent efficiency rate – best in the West and second-best among playoff teams – but otherwise, their team numbers were not outstanding.
The Kraken’s power play success rate was only 14.3 percent, which was third-worst among playoff teams and second-worst for Western Conference teams. On offense, the Kraken averaged just 2.57 goals-for per game, second-worst in the West, and 13th among playoff teams. Their defense was better, averaging 2.71 goals-against per game, which was sixth-best among playoff teams and third-best in the West. But most of the metrics for this series favor the Stars to win.
Dallas’ goaltending also gives them an edge over Seattle. Stars netminder Jake Oettinger posted a 2.01 goals-against average and .929 save percentage, and those numbers were better than those of Kraken starter Philipp Grubauer (2.44 G.A.A., .926 SP). Oettinger has the capability to steal games in a way Grubauer does not. And Seattle’s defense corps doesn’t match up well against Dallas’. The Kraken do not have an equivalent to Stars elite D-man Miro Heiskanen, nor does Seattle have the depth on ‘D’ that Dallas has.
We’re not getting ahead of ourselves. Seattle proved in the opening round that you doubt them at your peril. But if they can get past the Kraken, the Stars match up well against either the Golden Knights or the Oilers. Dallas won all three of their regular-season tilts against Vegas, and though they went 1-2-0 against Edmonton this year, the Stars would have far and away the best goalie against the Oilers.
It’s still much too early to pick Dallas as the favorite to win this year’s Stanley Cup. But it’s not at all too soon to point out they’re arguably the deepest, most experienced group remaining in the West. And with Colorado now ousted from the playoffs, the Stars’ path to a Cup win got easier.
Don’t underestimate Dallas because you can bet the Kraken and the rest of the NHL don’t.