
Edmonton has been busy in the seven-plus weeks since the end of the regular season. After bringing Ken Holland and Dave Tippett aboard, though, the Oilers need to begin reshaping a roster in die need of makeover.
It's been 54 days since yet another catastrophic campaign in Edmonton’s unfortunate post-lockout history came to a close, and in that time, the Oilers have been among the league’s busiest organizations. With the need for a new GM in the wake of Peter Chiarelli’s mid-season firing, the Oilers went out and found a new architect: four-time Stanley Cup winning GM Ken Holland. Three weeks later, the Oilers replaced coach Ken Hitchcock, who was lured away from an advisory role with the Dallas Stars for what amounted to an interim stint behind the Edmonton bench, with one-time Jack Adams Award-winning bench boss Dave Tippett.
But while those were headline acquisitions and important ones for a franchise that is desperate to right the ship after squandering three of the first four seasons of phenom Connor McDavid’s career, the hirings of Holland and Tippett were appetizers for a meatier main course. This off-season is when the real work needs to get done.
Following a season in which the franchise finished with the seventh-worst record in the NHL, the third time in four campaigns Edmonton has ended the season in the bottom-third of the league, it goes without saying that the Oilers are in need of a roster overhaul of sorts. That’s exactly what Holland will be in charge of undertaking, too. And as he begins what is sure to be major reconstructive surgery on a group that, simply put, hasn’t been able to make good on the outsized offensive achievements of superstar scorer McDavid, there are a few clear starting points for the new GM.
The first move, and the one many in Edmonton are hungering for, is an end to the current situation with Milan Lucic. Signed to a seven-year, $42-million contract by the Oilers in July 2016, Lucic simply hasn’t provided the expected results. After a not-all-bad debut campaign with Edmonton in which he scored 23 goals and 50 points, Lucic has experienced back-to-back downturns in production, including a 2018-19 output that was far and away the worst of his career. In 79 games, he scored six goals and 20 points while rumors of his exit swirled from the beginning of the season to its end.
Holland’s options when it comes to Lucic are few and far between, and none stand out as particularly favorable for the Oilers. Some have suggested a buyout, but taking such an action still sees Lucic’s contract count against the cap for an average of $4.75-million per season over the next four years. Others are on the side of moving the lumbering 30-year-old winger, but enticing any team to take on the salary will undoubtedly require significant sweeting of the pot by the Oilers and picks and prospects are not assets Edmonton should be willing to give up freely. The third option is finding a money-in, money-out deal with another organization looking to get a player a fresh start. It was reported that the Vancouver Canucks internally discussed a Lucic-for-Loui Eriksson swap. And while Oilers fans might not be keen on that kind of contract-for-contract exchange, it might just be that such a move is Holland’s best option.
What such a deal doesn’t afford Edmonton, however, is a valuable asset of which they are in dire need: cap space. Entering the summer, the Oilers are projected to have a mere $10.8 million in spending room. That’s concerning given Edmonton could use some cap flexibility in order to plug holes and fill needs, particularly those that exists in depth positions up front, on the blueline and in goal.
How do they make or find the space? Well, that's where Holland's other potential starting points lie. Offloading one of Adam Larsson or Kris Russell would be a start, as both earn at least $4 million to play second-pairing roles on one of the most underwhelming defense corps in the NHL. Finding a way out of Brandon Manning’s $2.25-million deal is also an obvious choice. And if there’s any way to send Sam Gagner’s $3.15-million contract elsewhere, that will be a boon to the Oilers’ off-season financials. Granted, making such moves is easier said than done. Holland and Co. have to be incredibly cautious in weighing cost-cutting measures against the assets that might need to be included to get bad money off the books.
But once some salary is shed, Holland can take a stab at actually repairing this roster. In terms of the offense, it’s evident the heavy reliance on McDavid and running-mate Leon Draisaitl isn’t the formula for success, and the Oilers aren’t exactly equipped with the support players the dynamic duo needs. After Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, whose name has been a rumor mill fixture for seasons on end, Edmonton’s current contracted forward group includes Gagner, Zack Kassian, Kyle Brodziak and Colby Cave. Woof. What the Oilers do have going for them is the potential to freshen that lineup with young talent, namely Jesse Puljujarvi, who is entering possibly the most pivotal season of his career, and prospect Kailer Yamamoto, who is on the fringe and could be a bottom-sixer next season. Holland can also add some youthful depth by re-signing Jujhar Khaira.
That still leaves obvious holes, however, and ones without obvious pieces who can fill them. That's where the free agent market comes in.
Where do the Oilers look? Well, bang-for-your-buck players might be Holland's best bet, especially because he can hardly risk betting big and going bust given the current cap situation. Alex Chiasson, whose success in Edmonton last season should lead both sides to consider a return, makes sense, and checking what a player such as Brett Connolly or veteran Tomas Vanek – who is still a capable power play contributor, if nothing else – will cost would be worthwhile. To shore up defensive issues with a forward, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare could prove a decent budget acquisition. And if Edmonton can shuffle out some money to make room, kicking the tires on a proven 20-goal, secondary-scoring option such as Gustav Nyquist might be worthwhile. It could help, too, that Holland has years of familiarity with the former Detroit Red Wings winger.
Defensively, similar additions need to be made. Oilers top prospect Evan Bouchard seems primed to make the leap and is one of the best prospects not yet in the NHL, ranked 13th in The Hockey News’ Future Watch. Adding him to a core that includes Darnell Nurse and Oscar Klefbom can give Edmonton a foundation on the backend, but a rookie rearguard needs support. Maybe a finally healthy Andrej Sekera can provide that, or maybe the duty falls to one of Larsson or Russell, if at least one remaining a member of the Edmonton blueline, that is.
There are options for Holland to pursue on the open market to solidify the group depending on his spend up front, too, though they come with much more risk. Taking a flyer on Marc Methot, who has been banged up for much of the past two seasons, could benefit the Oilers if he can get back up to game speed and provide some of the same defensive reliability and responsibility he has in the past. Carl Gunnarsson, the overtime hero in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup final, is also worth checking in on. He’s had an up-and-down year – or years, depending who you ask – but he’s been a steady depth option for the St. Louis Blues throughout his tenure.
And that brings the Oilers to their final need: support in goal. Once believed to be the answer, it was proven last season once and for all that Cam Talbot was not the savior Edmonton had hoped. Talbot was shipped off to the Philadelphia Flyers in February for pending free agent Anthony Stolarz, and such a trade was seen coming from the moment Mikko Koskinen signed a three-year, $13.5-million extension in Edmonton. Is Koskinen the answer? One hesitates to suggest as much. He’s an effective enough netminder, but his .906 save percentage last season left much to be desired. Thus, the Oilers need a steady second option.
The trouble again is that cap space, without moving out at least one major piece or a few pieces, is sparse. That might not prevent the Oilers from checking on a veteran backup option such as Curtis McElhinney – provided he doesn’t re-sign with the Carolina Hurricanes – or Brian Elliott. Chad Johnson is another option, and Calvin Pickard might be the best young, cheap option besides Stolarz, who has yet to re-sign and could opt to test the market. If he does come back, he's worth a shot.
No matter how Holland goes about operating on this roster, though, it’s plain as day that the first seven weeks of the off-season were indicative of what’s to come for the Oilers. Change, and lots of it, is on the horizon, and there may be no team in need of accomplishing more in what time is available this off-season than Edmonton.
(All salary cap information via CapFriendly)
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