The quarterfinal matchups are set at the 2023 World Men's U-18s with Sweden and USA leading the way. Tony Ferrari previews the action.
The U-18 World Championship has reached the elimination round. The IIHF’s premier event highlighting NHL draft-eligible players has been exciting as always, featuring comebacks, surprising blowouts and some outstanding individual performances.
With the round-robin coming to a close on Tuesday, the quarterfinal matchups are in place, and the teams prepare for the win-or-go-home portion of the tournament.
Sweden topped Group A, dominating Canada in the opening game to cement their place atop the group. As usual, the Americans have been a powerhouse, convincingly winning every match with a 37-6 goal differential over four games.
Unfortunately for Germany and Norway, they finished at the bottom of the standings and will now play in the relegation round. The loser of the three-game series will be relegated from the tournament to make way for the winner of the U-18 World Championship Div. IA tournament.
Let’s dive into the quarterfinal matchups and what to expect from each team.
Sweden vs. Latvia
The matchup between the Swedes and Latvians should be one-sided based on the rosters on paper. The Swedes took care of business in Group A, allowing just three goals – all to Slovakia – in their four games.
Led by captain Otto Stenberg and highly touted defender Axel Sandin Pellikka, the offensive attack of the Swedes has been efficient and surgical at times. They have gone through dry spells in terms of putting the puck in the net, but they have controlled the pace of play in each and every game.
Latvia won just one game in the preliminary round, their final contest against Norway in a 1-0 game that can be described as nothing more than two teams doing their best to avoid relegation. The Latvians don’t have the same spark they’ve had in recent years, lacking the feistiness we’ve become accustomed to. They’ve scored just three goals all tournament, so they’ll likely need an insane performance from goaltender Aksels Ozols.
The Swedes’ combination of firepower, defensive prowess, and excellent play in goal will likely be too much for the Latvian squad to overcome. Stenberg is the top-scoring non-American at the U-18s. David Edstrom and Anton Wahlberg have been impressive, providing secondary scoring. Tom Willander and Theo Lindstein have been strong on the blueline, thwarting almost every chance opponents attempt to generate.
The depth of talent that the Swedes boast will be just too much.
Canada vs. Switzerland
The Canadians are always shorthanded at the U-18s, with many of their top players still playing in the CHL playoffs. However, their roster for the tournament should still look better than they have through the preliminary round.
They opened the tournament with a putrid performance against the Swedes, getting blown out 8-0 and looking lifeless. Although they rebounded and won their final three games, they had noticeable moments of unsteady play, even in games where they won in a blowout. They’ve been undisciplined – both defensively and in terms of taking penalties.
Switzerland won two games, but both came against possibly the worst teams in the tournament in Norway and Latvia. The Swiss played fairly well against the Finns in their opening game as well but fell 4-2 after the Finns took over in the third period.
Eric Schneller has been the backbone of their defense, helping the Swiss play some low-event games that allow them to stay in the game. They have the scoring talent to beat the weaker teams, with players like Leo Braillard and Endo Meier producing when needed.
This could be a game ripe for an upset. Ewan Huet has been solid in goal for the Swiss squad, and their defensive group has been very good in every game, aside from the blowout loss to the powerhouse Americans. Canada’s defense has been leaky enough that the Swiss attackers may be able to find some scoring.
If the Swiss can hold what’s largely been an underwhelming Canadian offense in check, we could see the Canadians sent home early while the Swiss advance in a dream scenario.
With all that said, Canada’s true talent level should handle Switzerland. The number of Canadian players that have underwhelmed so far is long, and if they step up in elimination games, it could be scary for the Swiss.
Colby Barlow has yet to truly arrive. Macklin Celebrini has been good but has yet to be great. Andrew Cristall has been held in check. The names go on. If any of them wake up and play the way they can, the Canadians should advance with ease.
Finland vs. Slovakia
The Finns and Slovaks should be a must-watch in what could be the closest matchup of the quarterfinals.
Finland is the favorite heading into this game, but Slovakia has been in every game they’ve played, pushing both Sweden and Canada. The Finns have played their typical structured system, which has made them better than the sum of their parts as usual. The tale of the tape on these two is much closer than you’d initially believe.
Slovakia doesn’t have the depth of high-end talent they’ve had in recent years. Still, they are led by top draft prospect Dalibor Dvorsky who led the comeback in a pivotal game against the Germans. Dvorsky needs help, and he’s gotten it from Juraj Pekarcik and Adam Cedzo. Samuel Urban has been strong in the net for the Slovaks, which will need to continue for the team to find success.
Defender and 2024 NHL draft prospect Aron Kiviharju has led Finland with maturity beyond his years. Sound defensively and deft at moving the puck, Kiviharju has been a quiet catalyst for the Finns, leading all defenders in the tournament with seven points. The scoring-by-committee approach that the Finns regularly take has been effective again, as Kasper Halttunen, Rasmus Kumpulainen, Jesse Nurmi, Jesse Kiiskinen and Emil Jarventie are all scoring at more than a point per game. It’s hard to stop a team when players score across all four lines.
This game could come down to who gets timely scoring and which goalie can make that one extra save. Eemil Vinni has been up and down, but he looks like the Finns’ most talented goalie. However, Noa Vali and Visa Vedenpaa have been decent in their games.
This could be a back-and-forth affair, and someone must play the hero. Will Dvorsky be able to put on the cape and be Slovakia’s hero, or will the Finns have someone take a turn to put the team on their back?
USA vs. Czechia
The Czech squad is a good team who has underwhelmed a bit at the U-18s. The Americans are a strong team who has dominated at the U-18s. This matchup looks poised to be a deceptively easy win for the U.S. squad, but the Czechs won’t go down without a fight.
Czechia has relied heavily on Eduard Sale, a top prospect for the 2023 NHL draft, and the secondary scoring hasn’t been there. Sale hasn’t been dominant in his own right, either.
Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for Czechia. Their defense and goaltending were supposed to be the backbone of this team. But Michal Hrabal has been mediocre so far in net, and the defensive group, aside from Jakub Dvorak, has underperformed.
On the flip side, the Americans have been the best team in the tournament in almost every facet of the game.
Their top line of Will Smith, Ryan Leonard and Gabe Perreault is on a different level. Underage players Cole Eiserman and James Hagens have looked like all-stars. Trey Augustine has been one of the tournament’s best netminders. The defense has also been outstanding, led by 2024 draft prospects Cole Hutson and Zeev Buium and NTDP standout Aram Minnetian.
The Czech team will need a big performance in net from Hrabal, and the offense must figure out how to produce. This U.S. squad will score, but finding a way to limit them will be as tall of a task as that seems.
The Americans come in waves offensively, with players like Will Vote and Oliver Moore producing more than anyone on the Czech team as well. This game should be in the bag for the Americans as they look to capture gold at the U-18s for the first time since 2017. That said, the Americans have a history of uneven performances once they leave the round-robin at the U-18s, so an underperforming Czech squad could be a recipe for disaster.