Power plays are up, but many goalies across the NHL stand strong in net. Who are this season's super stoppers in net so far, and why's the average save percentage higher than last year so far?
Is the tide starting to turn for NHL scoring?
Through the 140 games of the 2023-24 season played in October, scoring was down slightly from last season's total, when the average of 3.18 goals per team per game was the highest since the 1993-94 season (3.24), according to Hockey Reference.
This year's average of 3.11 is also lower than the 2021-22 season (3.14). But we're still a long way from ushering in a new Dead Puck Era. This scoring rate is still the third-highest since the salary cap was introduced in the fall of 2005.
More Power Plays But Less Success
What's interesting is that the drop has happened even though October saw significantly more power-play opportunities than last season.
This year, teams are averaging 3.57 power plays per game, up from 3.07 in 2022-23. Historically, both those numbers are rather low. Four and even five power plays per game were relatively commonplace in the years before and after the 2004-05 lockout. But they dwindled to just 2.89 in the shortened 2020-21 season and the following year, so we could see a bit of a post-pandemic correction.
Power-play conversion rates are also down slightly — from 21.31 percent last season to 20.12 percent this year. But because there has been the equivalent of one extra power play per game this year, the number of power-play goals has still risen, from 0.65 per team per game last season to 0.79 this year. That's the highest rate since the 2008-09 season and suggests, very broadly, that your team's in trouble if it can't connect for at least one power-play marker on most nights.
After the Edmonton Oilers set the all-time power-play record at 32.4 percent and 89 power-play goals last season, they're at 7-for-29 in eight games this season, or a more typical 24.1 percent.
In the early going this year, three teams are ahead of that record-setting rate from the 2022-23 Oilers:
1. New Jersey Devils: 14 for 33 in eight games, 42.4 percent
2. New York Rangers: 11 for 32 in nine games, 34.4 percent
3. Tampa Bay Lightning: 10 for 30 in nine games, 33.3 percent
The Detroit Red Wings also sit right at 32.4 percent through 10 games, off a 12-for-37 performance with the man advantage.
Last season, just three goalies with 10 starts or more had save percentages over .900 while their teams were shorthanded: Carolina's Pyotr Kochetkov and Minnesota's Filip Gustavsson, each at .918, and Florida's Alex Lyon at .906.
This year, the goalies are winning in a big way.
Three goalies with three appearances or more have been perfect so far in shorthanded situations: Boston's Linus Ullmark, Detroit's James Reimer and Jonathan Quick from the New York Rangers. Jake Oettinger of Dallas had also gone five games without giving up a goal during an opponent's power play before MacKenzie Weegar beat him in the third period of the Stars' 4-3 win in Calgary on Wednesday.
Beyond those four, a stunning 17 additional goalies with three or more games played this year are sitting above .900 in shorthanded situations. Eight of them are above .940, including goalies on non-playoff teams like Petr Mrazek with Chicago (.962), Eric Comrie (.947) and Devon Levi (.944) with Buffalo and even Kaapo Kahkonen of San Jose (.941).
Does practice make perfect for these stoppers? Are this year's penalty-killing strategies limiting opponents' high-danger opportunities? This trend will be worth watching as the season goes on.
Fewer Shots Overall
Despite the increase in power play opportunities, teams across the league are actually getting fewer shots on net in full games this season — down from 31.1 per team per game last year to 30.7 this year. Other than the shortened pandemic season with the all-divisional play, when teams managed just 29.8 shots a game, this year's shot total to date is the lowest since the 2016-17 season (30.1).
Even though goalies are making slightly fewer saves this year (27.9 per team per game compared to 28.1 last year), their average save percentage has ticked up a couple of points, from .904 to .906, because they're seeing a little less rubber.
That difference seems small. But it'll be interesting to see if a little less work every night will keep goaltenders fresher as the season progresses if these trends continue.
This Season's Super Stoppers
Last season, 10 netminders with at least three games played by Nov. 1 had save percentages above .930 — led by Edmonton rookie Stuart Skinner at .955, with six goals allowed in four games.
And while Skinner had a nice showing at the Heritage Classic last Sunday, with two goals allowed on 26 shots, he has given up 16 goals in five games this season. His save percentage of .853 ties him for 62nd out of the 69 goalies who have suited up so far this year.
In the early going, nine goalies with at least three games are sitting at or above .930.
There are some carryovers, such as Oettinger (.939), Vezina Trophy winner Ullmark (.939) and his partner in crime, Jeremy Swayman (.957).
There have also been a couple of nice bounce-back performances. Thatcher Demko's quiet calm reminds hockey fans of why he had been in the Vezina conversation before suffering a serious groin injury last season. He's 4-2-0 with a save percentage of .935. And Logan Thompson is now playing the best hockey of his career after missing most of the second half of last season and all of the playoffs with Vegas. He's 4-0-0 with nine goals allowed and a save percentage of .931.
But who had Jake Allen on their bingo card for .930 through four games played and a 3-0-1 record with Montreal? Or Joseph Woll challenging for the starter's role in Toronto so quickly, at 3-2-0 and .942?
And he's not exactly a comeback kid, but the bright lights of Broadway agree with 37-year-old Jonathan Quick. He debuted with the New York Rangers in relief of Igor Shesterkin in a 4-1 loss to the Nashville Predators on Oct. 19, stopping all nine shots he faced. Then, the Rangers went out and swept their five-game Western road trip for the first time in franchise history. Quick has been credited for steadying a listing ship, then went on to allow one goal on 48 shots in his two starts on the road trip.
The first month of the season is often a bit wide open as players ease in and coaches don't always have their systems fully installed.
But two points in October count the same in the standings as two points in March, as they say. And in a 32-team league, we've seen how important just a point or two have been in determining who's in and who's out at playoff time.
Perhaps that early-season sloppiness is part of the reason why we've seen those surplus power plays. But with goalies and the teams in front of them already well dialled in defensively, there don't seem to have been as many ultra high-scoring spectacles as the last couple of early autumns.
Will these trends hold? Only time will tell.
