Lucas Raymond struggled with streaky scoring throughout the first half of 2022-23. As he heats up recently, what can keep him from the dreaded sophomore slump?
The transition to the NHL is always challenging. But every year, rookies come into the league and make it look easier than it truly is. Last year’s rookie crop was impressive, with Lucas Raymond asserting himself as one of the best in the group.
Raymond finished fourth in Calder Trophy voting last season, collecting 57 points in 82 games, good for third in rookie scoring. His 23 goals were tied for second among first-year players. Everything went smoothly and pointed in the right direction for the budding Swedish star.
That was until the 2022-23 season began.
With the Red Wings bringing in more talent and expecting Raymond to continue his impressive play on the top line, he had a good chance to avoid the dreaded sophomore slump. Unfortunately, Raymond stumbled out of the gate, and his production onward would be streaky.
Raymond failed to find the back of the net through the team’s first seven games, registering just two assists through Oct. 27.
On Oct. 29, Raymond scored his first, which kicked off his first hot streak of the season, racking up a dozen points in the next 13 games through Nov. 25.
But his worst stretch of the season followed between Nov. 25 and Dec. 16 as he tallied just two points in his next nine games, both coming on the power play.
One of the most telling signs of his struggles was that, according to Natural Stat Trick’s Corsi tracking, he generated 49.0-percent of total Corsi at 5-on-5 (CF%). That indicates his team generated just under half of the shots taken while he was on the ice. It’s a respectable but underwhelming rate despite being on a Detroit squad coming back down to earth after a hot start.
The even more concerning number was his high-danger scoring chances share (HDCF%), which sat at 34.33 percent at 5-on-5. Simply put, Raymond was, unfortunately, dreadful during this stretch.
Cue the trend upward, as Raymond’s game picked up significantly over the holidays.
Raymond put up 14 points in his last 14 games and boosted his underlying numbers in a big way.
His high-danger shot share is up to 43.42 percent during this stretch. While he is still being outshot – like almost everyone in Detroit – he’s finding a way to produce at a level more suited to his skill level.
Raymond has more of the high-level playmaking and crafty goal-scoring we saw last season as a rookie. He isn’t a burner that overwhelms with speed and isn’t a player who will score from a distance with a blistering shot.
The 20-year-old Swede is instead a tactician who uses his intellect and vision to accentuate his puck skill and playmaking. He also identifies skating lanes to attack the slot and score from in tight. Raymond works off his edges well and has the agility to evade defenders at the right times to open himself up for a shot.
Raymond hasn’t done a whole lot different this season. He is also attacking the middle as a shooter and finding teammates in high-danger spots. The difference may be the teammates he’s doing that for.
He’s played with a wider variety of linemates this season. While he played almost exclusively with Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi last season, he has played all over the lineup in 2022-23.
Raymond has produced exceptional results on a line with Larkin. However, his second most common linemate is Andrew Copp, which has produced well below replacement-level results.
The line changes are partially due to injury and new Red Wings coach Derek Lalonde tinkering with combinations. Some of the poor shot share metrics during his tough stretches roughly line up with his numbers when with Copp. Could the solution be pairing the Wings’ two most dynamic talents in Raymond and Larkin?
Throughout Raymond’s NHL career, only five of his 36 career goals came from outside of the home plate area of the offensive zone. All five came from between the faceoff dots but just outside the home plate.
Raymond is on pace to match his totals from last season as a rookie despite stretches of play this year where he has seemingly disappeared from action. The biggest issue he’s had this year is finding that consistency on a nightly basis. That means consistently getting to the middle, finishing his chances as he typically has, and continuing to put teammates in positions to succeed.
The young Red Wings star has been much better as of late, which has been great to see. The concerns of his demise are greatly exaggerated as the talent hasn’t gone anywhere. Inconsistent linemates and injuries throughout the lineup have all played a factor.
Opposing teams having NHL tape on Raymond also creates a challenge. Now that the league has seen a full year of what Raymond can do, he must alter his play while staying within his process to find his best results.
His true talent and intelligence should be enough to overcome the book being out on him. The second half of the season is setting up to be big for the 2020 fourth overall pick. If the Red Wings want to stay in the hunt for the playoffs in any way, Raymond’s resurgence over the last month will need to continue.
It’s time to put Raymond’s resilience and play to the test. Can he take the step to stardom in the second half, or will the sophomore slump truly take another victim?