Goalies are an interesting breed.
Aside from the fact they stand alone and are naturally separated from the rest of the team - yet hold the most influential position in the lineup - they are also incredibly difficult to project.
From 2000 to 2004, 14 goalies were taken in the first round, three of which went in one of the top two slots. When you make a pick in the first round, you’re expecting that player to be of the impact variety at the NHL level. However, of the 14 goalies, only half of them are still in the NHL and only four are starters: Rick DiPietro (and that’s a stretch), Kari Lehtonen (ditto due to injuries), Cam Ward and Marc-Andre Fleury. If an NHL management team had a 50 percent or less success rate drafting in the first round, they wouldn’t have jobs for long.
And perhaps NHL teams are starting to draft according to the more offensive-minded age than we had at the start of this decade. In the past four drafts, only four goalies have gone in Round 1. In fact, in 2007 and 2009 no goalies went in the opening round. Prior to ’07, the last time that happened was during the tail end of another offensive era, in 1991 and 1992, when goalies were shutout of Round 1 as well.
With injuries such a defining issue in the career of a netminder, the fog of war clouds how clearly you can project these players at a young age. And at the NHL level, it’s difficult to even predict who will be in the running for the Vezina from one year to the next.
Who thought Tim Thomas would win the 2009 Vezina? And who thought he’d be topping the list again in 2011 after such a bad 2010? When Jaroslav Halak was traded to St. Louis after a surprise playoff run with Montreal, who thought Carey Price would be the more serious goalie of the year candidate? After Ondrej Pavelec collapsed on the ice at the start of the season, who could have foreseen his ascension? And who would have thought Ryan Miller, after such a strong 2009-10, wouldn’t be in the discussion less than a year later?
So while it continues to look as though no one will catch Tim Thomas this season, remember you’re talking about the most volatile position in the game. And also remember Tuukka Rask is starting to get more time.
GAME OF THE MONTH: After allowing 14 goals in four games and appearing to slow down at least a little, Price came back with a 31-save win over the high-octane Pittsburgh Penguins in a shootout followed by a 27-save overtime win over Thomas and the Bruins; two clutch wins to stay close in the division race.
RISING: Roberto Luongo hasn’t lost in regulation since Dec. 5 and has turned aside 106 of his past 109 shots faced. In fact, the only losses Luongo had in the past month and a bit were of the overtime and shootout varieties to the Detroit Red Wings.
FALLING: The shine is starting to come off Sergei Bobrovsky, who hasn’t won since Dec. 15 and has been playing backup to Brian Boucher more often then not lately. Rebound control remains an issue.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN: Jimmy Howard has the tendency to be really hot (as he was against Vancouver Saturday night) or really cold (he’s allowed three or more goals in four of his past five starts.) His win-loss record is impeccable, but is aided by Detroit’s No. 2-ranked offense. His 2.68 GAA is 28th in the league and is no better than anyone in our current top 10. Other notables: Cam Ward, Corey Crawford, Niklas Backstrom.
DROPPED OUT: Ilya Bryzgalov, Sergei Bobrovsky, Jaroslav Halak.