Connor Bedard: Projecting the Rookie Numbers for the NHL's Next Generational Talent

The Blackhawks have signed the top draft pick of 2023. Now what kind of magic — and stats —might the 18-year-old cook up next season? Fans and fantasy leaguers should look at the facts and figures of other elite NHL rookies in context.

Connor Bedard has signed his entry-level contract with the Chicago Blackhawks. He's locked in the fold. 

Barring a staged event, we'll probably first see the NHL’s top 2023 draft on the ice as a Blackhawk at the Tom Kurvers Prospect Showcase in September. The team plans to participate in the event again with the Minnesota Wild just before the opening of training camp. 

Bedard says he’s “just trying to make the team” and is “just a kid." But the center's WHL and WJC exploits, combined with a long build-up for his arrival, mean Bedard's not just another promising player.

Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson won’t make scoring projections, although he’s acquired veteran talent such as winger Taylor Hall to support Bedard's transition and immediate output. Coach Luke Richardson acknowledged Bedard is a special a talent who may just “take the puck and be gone with it” at times.

How might it all add up statistically? Let's look at top NHL rookie production over the years.

The highest output for NHL rookies was in the talent-rich, high-scoring 1980s when Wayne Gretzky and the Edmonton Oilers set the tone. 

But players who entered the NHL along with one of four WHA teams in 1979-80 were not considered a rookie, regardless of their age.

Gretzky was 18 when he played his first NHL game on Oct. 10, 1979 against the Blackhawks at Chicago Stadium. He went on to tie for the league lead in scoring that season with 137 points. But Gretzky wasn’t in the running for the Calder Trophy. He did win the Hart, however, as league MVP.

No one’s comparing Bedard to Gretzky. The CHL player of the year HAS been likened to Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid by scouts and coaches.

Crosby was picked first overall by Pittsburgh in 2005 at age 18. In the 2005-06 season, he scored 39 goals and 102 points. That’s the third-highest total for a player who debuted as an 18-year-old, behind Gretzky and Winnipeg’s Dale Hawerchuk. Hawerchuk was drafted first overall in 1981, then scored 45 goals and 103 points the following season and won the Calder.

The speedy McDavid, taken first in 2015, had 16 goals and 48 points as a rookie in 2015-16.

Go further back in time. Bedard's style and skills may not be unlike those of Hawerchuk, Detroit's terrific Steve Yzerman and the Minnesota North Stars Neal Broten. Fast forward to a contemporary era. Could Bedard be on the order of Matt Duchene when he broke in with Colorado or New Jersey's Nico Hischier, the Swiss center Hall clicked with? 

Wait and see. It will be interesting.

1. Wayne Gretzky, Edmonton. Season: 1979-80. Totals: 51-86-137.

2. Dale Hawerchuk, Winnipeg. Season: 1981-82 Totals: 45-58-103.

3. Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh. Season: 2005-06. Totals: 39-63-102.  

4. Steve Yzerman, Detroit. Season: 1983-84. Totals: 39-48-87.  He scored one of the greatest goals ever against the Blackhawks. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AO7T0smvLuo

5. Jimmy Carson, Los Angeles. Season. 1986-87. Totals: 37-42-79.

6. Sylvain Turgeon, Hartford. Season: 1983-84. Totals: 40-32-72.

7. Ron Francis, Hartford. Season: 1981-82. Totals: 25-43-68,

8. Bobby Carpenter, Washington. Season: 1981-82. Totals: 32-35-67. 

9. Phil Housley, Buffalo. Season: 1982-83. Totals: 19-47-66. Highest scoring defenseman in this group.

10. Brian Bellows, Minnesota North Stars. Season: 1982-83. Totals: 35-30-65.

11. Patrik Laine, Winnipeg. Season: 2016-17; Totals: 36-28-6. Highest scoring European in this group.

12. Jeff Skinner, Carolina. Season 2010-11. Totals: 31-32-63.

13. Nathan MacKinnon. Colorado. Season: 2013-14. Totals: 24-39-63.

14. Trevor Linden, Vancouver, Season: 1988-89. Totals: 30-29-59. 

15. Jaromir Jagr, Pittsburgh. Season: 1990-91, Totals: 27-30-57. 

16. Matt Duchene, Colorado. Season 2009-10. Totals: 24-31-55. 

17. Kirk Muller, New Jersey, Season: 1984-85. Totals: 17-37-54. 

18. Nico Hischier, New Jersey. Season, 2017-18. Totals: 20-32-52.

19. Dan Quinn, Calgary. Season. 1983-84. Totals 19-33-52. 

20. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Edmonton. Season 2011-12. Totals 18-34-52.

The highest scoring 18-year-old Blackhawks rookie was Eddie Olczyk, with 20 goals and 50 points in 1984-85. Bobby Hull was 18 when he debuted in 1957-58 with 13 goals and 47 points.

See this list too. Steve Larmer, at age 21, was the highest-scoring Chicago rookie of all-time, even though he was drafted in the sixth round, 120^th overall in 1980. https://records.nhl.com/records/skater-records/scoring-by-a-rookie/most-points-rookie-one-season

1. Teemu Selanne. Winnipeg. Season: 1992-93. Age: 22  Totals: 76-56-132 assists. First-round 10^th overall pick in 1988. Won Calder.

2. Peter Stastny. Québec. Season: 1980-81. Age 24 Totals: 39-70-109. Free agent signing, not drafted. Won Calder.

3. Alex Ovechkin. Washington. Season: 2005-06. Age 20. Totals: 52-54-106. Drafted first overall in 2004. Won Calder.

4. Dale Hawerchuk. Winnipeg. Season: 1981-82. Age 18. Totals: 45-58-103 points. Drafted first overall in 1981. Won Calder.

5. Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh. Season 2005-06. Age 18. Totals: 39-63-102 points. Drafted first overall in 2005. Finished second in 2005 Calder vote to Ovechkin.

6. Joé Juneau. Boston. Season: 1992-93. Age 24. Totals 32-70-102 points. Drafted fourth round, 81^st overall 1988. Played college hockey at RPI before arriving in NHL.

7. Mario Lemieux. Pittsburgh. Seasons: 1984-85. Age 19. Totals 43-57-100  Drafted first overall in 1984. Won Calder.

8. Neal Broten. Minnesota North Stars. Season: 1981-82.  Age 22. Totals: 38-60-98 points. Drafted in the second round, 42nd overall 1979. Played college hockey at University of Minnesota before arriving in NHL.

9. Bryan Trottier. N.Y. Islanders. Season: 1975-76.  Age 19. Totals: 32-63-95. Drafted second round, 22^nd overall in 1974. Won Calder.

10. Joe Nieuwendyk. Calgary. Season 1987-88. Age 21. Totals: 51-41-92. Drafted second round 27^th overall 1985. Won Calder. Played college hockey at Cornell before arriving in NHL.  

11. Barry Pederson. Boston. Season: 1981-82.  Age 19 . Totals: 44-48-92. Drafted first round, 18th overall in 1980. Second in Calder voting.

12. Mike Bossy, NY Islanders. Season: 1977-78. Age 20. Totals: 53-38-91. Drafted in first round, 15th overall in 1977.  Won Calder.

13. Steve Larmer, Chicago. Season: 1982-83. Age 21. Totals: 43-47-90. Drafted sixth round, 120^th overall in 1980. Won Calder. Was in the minors for two seasons before breaking through with Blackhawks on recommendation from coach Orval Tessier.

14. Marian Stastny, Québec. Season 1981-82. Age 29 Totals: 35-54-89. Not drafted. Free agent signing.

15. Steve Yzerman, Detroit. Season: 1983-84. Age 18. Totals 39-48-87. Drafted first rounds fourth overall 1983. Second in Calder voting to Buffalo goalie Tom Barrasso, who also entered the NHL at age 18 and starred.

16. Sergei Makarov, Calgary. Season: 1989-90. Age 31. Totals: 24-62-86. Drafted 12^th Round, 231^st overall in 1983. Won Calder.

17. Anton Stastny, Québec. Season: 1980-81. Age 21. Totals: 39-46-85. Drafted fourth round, 83rd overall in 1979.

18. Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh. Season 2006-07. Age 20. Totals: 33-52-85. Drafted first round, second overall in 2004. Won Calder.

19. Mathew Barzal. N.Y. Islanders. Season: 2017-18. Age 20. Totals: 22-63-85. Drafted first round, 16th overall in 2015. Won Calder. 

20. Luc Robitaille, Los Angeles. Season 1985-86. Age 20. Totals: 45-39-84. Drafted ninth round, 171st overall in 1984. Won Calder.