Raymond’s Big Night and Seider’s Tough Assignment: A Red Wings-Penguins Statistical Review

A statistical review of the Red Wings’ 6-5 overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins, taking a look at the top line’s Lucas Raymond-led brilliance and Moritz Seider’s matchup against Sidney Crosby.

Out of everything that comes after this sentence, the only stat you need to know from Thursday’s 6-5 overtime loss to the Penguins is this: the Red Wings have a 15.8% chance to make the playoffs.

That stat, courtesy of Moneypuck, illustrates the fact that Detroit’s postseason hopes are alive. Even if it ranks last in playoff odds among the four teams chasing the final wild card spot, much like Lloyd Christmas of Dumb and Dumber fame, it still has a chance. They live to play another day, even if what comes after their next three games is still up in the air.

Here’s how Detroit kept those hopes alive:

The Big (Playoff) Picture

The Red Wings earned more expected goals than the Penguins at a 3.13-2.71 margin, led by the reunited top line of Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond. The trio combined for 10 points, making far more out of its opportunities than expected. This could’ve been higher, as a pair of posts thwarted what could’ve been the sixth and seventh goals off those attempts.

The bigger issue Thursday night is that the Red Wings struggled to defend those Pittsburgh chances. The Penguins thrived in transition as shown in Kris Letang’s 2-1 goal, Sidney Crosby’s 3-2 backdoor goal and even, in a much shorter span, Bryan Rust’s 4-2 goal. The Red Wings were too late in setting up their structure, giving up high percentage looks that Pittsburgh largely cashed. That’s part of why it got five goals out of the 2.71 expected goals that Detroit gave up. Such defensive struggles can be expected with two big matchup players injured in Andrew Copp and Michael Rasmussen, but Thursday’s effort left much to be desired.

In terms of shot location, both teams struggled to protect the front of the net. At even strength, the Red Wings dominated the net front with many of its chances, while the Penguins earned fewer shot attempts there. Giving up that many net-front shot attempts is a big reason why Pittsburgh couldn’t close this game out — four of Detroit’s goals were scored between the crease and the hash marks.

Individual Impacts

- Those shots at the net front? Credit Lucas Raymond for the difference. He scored his three goals there, and he assisted on Larkin’s 5-4 goal there. Their line alongside Alex DeBrincat finished with a 60.5% Corsi and 64.2% expected goals share in 12:37 of even strength ice time. Some of these chances came against the Penguins’ top line with Drew O’Connor, Crosby and Rust, a combo that scored three goals against them. The Detroit first line also played a favorable usage for its big offensive night, starting 14 of its 23 even strength shifts in the offensive or neutral zone, and six on the fly.

Detroit largely rolled its top six, and results like the top line proved it was a worthwhile effort. But the second line struggled a lot more in its 11:38 ice time. David Perron, J.T. Compher and Patrick Kane took and surrendered nine shots each way, but it had a 42.1% control of expected goals. All this is to say, the Penguins earned way better percentage chances on their shot attempts against this line. Most of these came from Pittsburgh’s middle six, with the Detroit second line matching up with the Penguins’ third line when able. Such a poor defensive night came when this second line never started an even strength shift in its own zone. Pittsburgh went 200 feet to get its chances against them, and it succeeded far too often.

The bottom six didn’t play much, but Zach Aston-Reese showed good jump on the fourth line. He took a shot attempt in tight that Nedeljkovic saved, but he and Christian Fischer showed good connection on the play. Detroit could use depth scoring even if it’s riding a shortened bench, and this chance was a good effort from the fourth line.

- On the blue line, the top pair of Moritz Seider and Ben Chiarot gave up about as much as they created when on the ice — a negligible 1.062-1.04 edge in expected goals. They matched up with the Penguins’ top line the most, with Seider facing 10:21 of Crosby’s 19:35 ice time. Crosby got his chances in that span — Seider allowed three high-danger threats to Crosby’s line. But Seider’s teammates also generated five high-dangers in the same time span, according to Natural Stat Trick. On Wednesday, Patrick Kane noted that the Red Wings wanted to make Crosby defend in his own end. With Seider on the ice, he had to.

True to their season-long form, the Red Wings put their best defender against Pittsburgh’s best players all night. Especially against Crosby, who has willed the Penguins forward the past month, such an assignment was difficult. Against it, the pairing broke even on the night. This is good, as it defers the chance to win the game to the rest of the lineup, but someone has to seize the opportunity.

Simon Edvinsson and Jeff Petry attempted to be the difference makers. They played an alright game on the second pairing with a 61.3% expected goal share contrasted by a 43.8% Corsi across 13:22 at even strength. Petry’s goal was well-timed at the end of the second period to cut the deficit to one goal. Meanwhile, Edvinsson’s four shot blocks led the team, trailed by Petry (3) and Olli Maatta (3).

- Some of Pittsburgh’s success can be pinned to Alex Lyon, who finished with a .778 save percentage — his worst since a .692 effort against Buffalo on March 12, almost exactly a month earlier. He finished the night with a -3.29 goals saved above expected. However, his defense didn’t give him much help against a bevy of transition scoring chances. Lyon could have made a couple more stops (the first goal that O’Connor whacked off his chest comes to mind), but he also had a tough assignment given how the Penguins were able to get past the teammates in front of him.

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