Reviewing dominant five-on-five performance (especially to close) from Detroit against the Bruins and investigating the Red Wings' 11/7 mixing and matching
Last night at Little Caesars Arena, the Detroit Red Wings handed the Atlantic-leading Boston Bruins their first regulation loss of the season.
It was a physical, chippy, and emotional game, but, perhaps more importantly, this was far from a flukey result for the hosts. Instead, the Red Wings were the better team at five-on-five for most of the night, particularly when it mattered most in the third period. For a better sense of how the game played out, let's dive into the numbers from a stirring Detroit victory.
The Big Picture
-To be sure, knocking off a Boston team that entered the night undefeated in regulation was an upset. However, just because it was a surprise, doesn't mean Detroit didn't earn this result.
By expected goals in al situations (as measured by MoneyPuck.com), the Red Wings won 3.09-2.11.
It was a tight game through one period, with Boston holding a narrow edge on the scoreboard and xG counter. By the end of the second, Detroit had clawed ahead by xG, though still trailed where it counted. In the third, the Red Wings were dominant, wracking up three goals, all of them at five-on-five, and pulling away from their guests by xG.
-Natural Stat Trick provides a similar story. The below heat map illustrates the shot volume and quality Detroit generated at five-on-five. Three Bruin goals from in tight shows that the Red Wings weren't as sharp as they might have been defensively (which could have helped Detroit from having to play from behind in the first place). Nonetheless, the Red Wings created more chances for themselves, and there was no shortage of high quality looks amongst that number.
At five-on-five, the Red Wings earned a 57.69% share of shots, 53.49% share of scoring chances, 57.14% share of high danger chances, and a 59.04% share of the expected goals (all figures from NST). In the third period, that advantage was even more acute, with the Red Wings managing to accrue a whopping 72.42% share of xG in the final frame. That's how you slam the door against a divisional giant.
Individual Impacts
-As the below bar graph of individual expected goal contributions illustrates, the win was a night in which Detroit got vital contributions from up and down the line-up. Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat led the way, but contributions from Jake Walman on the back end and lower down the line up from players like Andrew Copp and David Perron helped propel the Red Wings over the top.
-With Christian Fischer unavailable, Detroit returned to its 11 forwards and seven defensemen alignment. As a result, the team did a good deal of mixing and matching, especially with its depth players.
"It gives us a lot of looks," said Derek Lalonde after the game of 11 and seven. "It's tough for them to match. They were chasing their top two D on Larkin's line all night, and we were able to avoid that." He did concede that doing so "probably drains you guys" more than the traditional rolling of four forward lines and three defense pairs.
Up front, the top line was the only forward unit to play more than five minutes at five-on-five for the Red Wings. Raymond, Dylan Larkin, and DeBrincat played 10:12 together, and they put up 0.472 xG for with 0.169 xG against for a superb 73.6% share of on-ice xG. Clearly, the match-up game Lalonde wanted to play worked.
Behind that top line, six different combinations played between two and five minutes together at five-on-five: Compher-Copp-Veleno (4:33), Perron-Rasmussen-Sprong (3:44), Compher-Copp-Perron (3:21), Compher-Copp-Rasmussen (3:10), Kostin-Veleno-Czarnik (2:19), and Rasmussen-Veleno-Sprong (2:15).
On the back end, it was a similar story. Unsurprisingly, Lalonde led with a steady diet of Jake Walman and Moritz Seider. Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry were not far behind. Walman-Seider played 13:03 at five-on-five, putting up a 55.2% xG share with one goal for and one goal against. Chiarot and Petry played 9:07 together to the tune of a 48% xG share with one goal for and nothing against.
Behind those two pairs, seven different permutations of the Red Wings defensemen played between two and five minutes: Maatta-Holl (4:07), Holl-Petry (3:16), Gostisbehere-Petry (3:00), Chiarot-Holl (2:24), Gostisbehere-Holl (2:12), Gostisbehere-Maatta (2:09), and Gostisbehere-Chiarot (2:05).
Fischer is not expected to miss significant time, and, as Lalonde noted, there are limitations to 11 and seven, but the tactic allowed the Red Wings to control the game last night.
-Finally, it was not a banner night from Ville Husso. He conceded four times on just 2.109 xG for a Goals Saved Above Expected of -1.89 (per MoneyPuck). The first goal was an especially bad goal to allow. If there is one reason for tempering expectations at this point in the season, it's goaltending.
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