The Clock Is Ticking
Connor McDavid has never held more leverage than he does right now.
At 28 years old, entering the final season of his 8-year, $100 million contract, the Oilers captain is eligible to sign an extension. Edmonton has made it clear they’re ready to hand him a blank check — term, dollars, structure, whatever he wants.
And yet, McDavid hasn’t signed.
At Canada’s Olympic orientation camp in Calgary last week, he gave a carefully balanced answer: “I have every intention to win in Edmonton… but all options are on the table.”
That hesitation isn’t about dollars. McDavid knows he’ll reset the market — whether it’s $15–16 million per year in Edmonton or a megadeal elsewhere. His pause is about something deeper: belief.
After back-to-back trips to the Stanley Cup Final, both ending in heartbreak (Game 7 to Florida in 2024, Game 6 again to Florida in 2025), McDavid has reason to wonder: Are the Oilers truly set up to finish the job?
Right now, the answer depends on one thing.
The crease.
The Ghost of Campbell
Edmonton’s goaltending missteps are well documented. Jack Campbell was signed in 2022 to stabilize the net, only to implode spectacularly. By 2023 he was waived and buried in Bakersfield, his 5×$5 million contract a weight around the franchise’s neck.
That collapse forced Stuart Skinner — a local kid, 24 at the time — into the starter’s role far earlier than expected. To his credit, Skinner battled through, posting solid regular seasons and gaining invaluable playoff mileage. But the crunch-time cracks showed: untimely soft goals, visible frustration, and moments where the stage felt just a little too big.
Skinner wasn’t built up into a number one; he was forced into it. The Campbell failure put him in an impossible position.
That can’t happen again.
Why Overpay is the Only Play
This isn’t about fair value anymore. It’s about survival.
Edmonton’s prospect pipeline has been ranked near the bottom of the league (30th by Elite Prospects, 31st by The Athletic). Their best young forwards, Isaac Howard and Matthew Savoie, may be NHL-ready, but scouts peg them as middle-six ceiling players. There’s no savior waiting in Bakersfield.
Meanwhile, the core is aging. Hyman, Ekholm, Nugent-Hopkins, and Nurse are all 30 or older. The championship window is now.
That’s why management must embrace the only option left: overpay for a goalie who erases the doubt.
The alternative? Rolling the dice on Skinner and a waiver-wire backup again, and watching McDavid bolt as the most sought-after free agent in NHL history.
The Packages That Force a GM’s Hand
Here’s what overpaying looks like in practice: packages that include a roster player, a top prospect, a 1st-round pick, and an additional kicker that no sane GM can refuse.
🥇 For Juuse Saros (Nashville)
- Andrew Mangiapane (LW, top-6 scorer)
- Matt Savoie (F prospect)
- Beau Akey (RHD prospect)
- 2026 1st-round pick (unprotected)
- 2027 2nd-round pick (upgrades to 1st if Oilers reach WCF)
Why Nashville bites: Yaroslav Askarov is ready. This gives them scoring help and multiple premium futures.
Why Edmonton wins: Saros is a top-5 goalie under contract through 2033. No more questions in net.
🥈 For Linus Ullmark (Ottawa)
- Brett Kulak (LD, veteran depth)
- Isaac Howard (LW prospect, Hobey Baker winner)
- Raphael Lavoie (RW prospect, size and scoring touch)
- 2026 1st-round pick (lottery protected)
- 2027 2nd-round pick
Why Ottawa bites: their crease is crowded with Ullmark, Korpisalo, and Forsberg. This clears the logjam, delivers futures, and gives them a plug-and-play NHL defenseman.
Why Edmonton wins: Ullmark has Vezina pedigree and thrives in structured defenses like Edmonton’s.
🥉 For Ilya Sorokin (NY Islanders)
- Jake Walman (LD, top-4 caliber)
- Matt Savoie (F prospect)
- Beau Akey (RHD prospect)
- 2026 1st-round pick (unprotected)
- 2027 1st-round pick (top-10 protected)
- Conditional 2028 2nd (upgrades to 1st if Oilers win Cup)
Why New York bites: it’s a franchise reset package. Two 1sts, two blue-chip prospects, and an NHL defenseman.
Why Edmonton wins: If you land Sorokin, Connor McDavid isn’t leaving. Period.
Fuhr and Moog 2.0
The most delicate part of this equation is Skinner. After carrying the weight post-Campbell, how do you convince him he’s still valued?
The answer lies in history.
During Edmonton’s 1980s dynasty, Grant Fuhr and Andy Moog formed a true tandem. Both were trusted, both played deep into playoff runs, and both lifted Cups. It wasn’t about replacing one with the other — it was about always having two goalies capable of winning you games.
The Oilers should sell this as Fuhr/Moog 2.0.
“Stu, you’ll decide who’s Fuhr and who’s Moog by how you play. You’re not being replaced — you’re being partnered.”
This reframing not only protects Skinner’s confidence but sells fans on nostalgia: the dynasty model reborn.
What Connor Sees
For McDavid, the hesitation isn’t about maxing out at 20% of the cap. It’s about knowing the organization is serious about winning beyond 2026.
Right now, he sees:
- A core that’s good but aging.
- A prospect pipeline ranked near dead last.
- A crease held together by hope.
But if Edmonton delivers a Saros or Ullmark? Suddenly the narrative flips:
- Goaltending is solved for today and tomorrow.
- Skinner is still in the fold, fresh and ready when needed.
- The dynasty path is real.
Combine that with the benefits only Edmonton can offer — Draisaitl locked through 2033, Lauren Kyle’s businesses rooted in the city, the chance to be a one-team legend — and the pitch becomes airtight.
Overpay or Over
The Oilers’ front office is at a crossroads.
Overpay in assets now — roster player, top prospect, 1st-round pick, and a sweetener — and Edmonton stabilizes its most glaring weakness. McDavid sees the seriousness, and the dynasty window remains wide open.
Fail to act, and the risk isn’t just losing another Cup Final. It’s losing Connor McDavid himself — either in a deadline drama or in free agency, walking for nothing.
Overpay or over. There is no middle ground anymore.