Oilers In Desperate Need Of Strong Finish Against Struggling Habs

Coming off three consecutive blown leads, the Oilers need to clamp it down against the Montreal Canadiens.

Andy Devlin - Edmonton Oilers - Oilers In Desperate Need Of Strong Finish Against Struggling Habs

The Oilers must really love a dramatic finish.

They've gone to overtime in each of their past three games, each time after blowing a third-period lead. While they managed to avoid disaster and salvage a win against the Islanders and Predators, their luck ran out on Saturday night when the Maple Leafs' Mitch Marner put them away in the extra frame after a back-and-forth third period.

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As they continue their three-game road trip through eastern Canada tonight in Montreal, the coaching staff is surely focusing on one thing: no more blown leads.

A matchup with the 30th-place Canadiens could be just what the doctor ordered. The 6-10-2 Habs are one of the only teams in the league to allow more third-period goals than the Oilers -- 25 to Edmonton's 24.

That's par for the course for the Canadiens this year, as they've been one of the worst defensive teams in the league to start the season. They've allowed 3.89 goals per game, second-highest behind Pittsburgh at 3.90.

That's not just bad luck, either. The Habs' expected goals share is just 42.8%, the second-lowest in the league, and their 65.4 expected goals against are third-most.

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When the Canadiens do win, it's on the back of their offence. On the whole, their offence isn't anything special -- they've scored one more goal than the Oilers in as many games. But they're prone to explosions, scoring at least four goals in five of their six wins, the lone exception being a 1-0 shutout of the Maple Leafs on opening night.

They've mostly beaten up on other bad teams: they've beaten Columbus 5-1 and Buffalo 7-5 in the past week after suffering through a six-game losing streak. The Oilers are better than that, but their Achilles heel is in net, which could be a problem.

Stuart Skinner's save percentage sits at .877, and it's undeniable that it's costing the Oilers games. All three of last week's blown leads included goals he absolutely should have saved. The advanced stats agree, pegging him for a league-worst 9.3 goals allowed above expected.

Calvin Pickard has been better, but not good. His save percentage of .890 is thanks to a comically bad .563 on the penalty kill, a big reason why the Oilers have only killed two-thirds of their penalties this season.

They'll need to be better than that against the Canadiens, because Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and co. should be salivating at the chance to face the Oilers' goaltending.

The Oilers may be able to run roughshod over the Habs' nonexistent defence, but that won't matter if Skinner or Pickard can't make big stops at the other end of the ice. On the first night of a back-to-back, the Oilers can't afford yet another dramatic finish.

Tonight's game gets underway at 5:30, streaming exclusively on Prime Video.

All advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.

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