See how the team fares without their captain, a young defenseman's ice time crunch, and a goalie's stunning return to form.
SAN DIEGO, CA—In my latest three stats article, I take a look at life without Anze Kopitar, a burgeoning young defenseman seemingly losing his minutes, and the return of Vezina-like play from their number one. Whether it is a blessing or a curse, I give my opinion based on numbers, but in the end, you be the judge.
First Stat: 2-1-1
That’s the record with Kopitar out of the lineup. That may seem like an easy stat for me to pull, but there’s some significance to that, and I’ll absolutely go deeper here. Also, a disclaimer here: By no means is this team better without Kopitar off the ice right now. The record indicates to me a collective agreement for a buy-in from the group. It has also been apparent that the lines of Quinton Byfield and Phillip Danault have remained largely intact, aside from a Joel Armia or a very recent Corey Perry guest appearance.
Kopitar’s place between the Eurasian combo of Adrian Kempe and Andrei Kuzmenko went to Alex Laferriere. Dealers' choice, though that wasn't the ace I would have expected. Kuzmenko has looked solid, though at times he has been a pass or two off from doing something spectacular. Kempe has done a ton of recent damage in overtime (away from Laferriere), but has yet to pop off at five-on-five to really earn that 11.5-12 range million-dollar contract. Laferriere scored a pretty backhand goal against St. Louis off a turnover, heads-up play by Kempe. He also got a temporary, a falling-down-stick-up-in-the-air deflection goal in Dallas that was overturned.
Stats-wise? Well, it hasn't been good for Laferriere and his mates.
In 21:28 of time together, their Corsi and Fenwick are a roughshod 34.21% and 29.17% respectively. They are outshot 10-6, though they currently have outscored 2-1. Scoring chances are 11-8 against them, and high danger chances are 5-1 against them. Don’t be fooled by the goals for vs against, this truly isn't sustainable.
In the 55:31 minutes away from Laferriere, primarily influenced by 39:25 of Kopitar to start the year, those two with any other center have produced a 54.05% and 55.88% Corsi and Fenwick, outshooting opposition 29-18 (61.7% Shot share), outscored opposition 2-0, outchancing 25-22 (53.19% share), with high danger chances 3-0 in favor.
Now it's not to blame or point fingers at a player who has genuinely been handed an array of responsibilities, while having the most extensive range of shifts of any forward in respect to his deployments between the fourth, first, and second lines, as Jim Hiller has largely left his shutdown third line untouched.
Laferriere has likely never found a rhythm this season. He wasn’t exactly overpowering the opposition on the fourth line, and, as shown above, the top line is cratering while still having one of the most threatening winger combinations on the roster. It’s also concerning that the dynamic line from last season didn't carry over to start the year with the trio of Laferriere, Byfield, and Kevin Fiala.
In 27:40 minutes those three have played together, the split is: 47.37% (Corsi), 40.54% (Fenwick), outshot 16-12 (42.86% share), outscored 2-0, outschanced 13-6 (31.58% share), and high danger chances being 7-3 in favor of the opposition. Last season, for reference, those stats were 57.41% Corsi, 57.59% Fenwick, 56.35% Shot share, 76.92% Goal share (20-6), scoring chance share (59.6%), and high danger chances in favor, 68-48 (58.62% share).
So, despite the team going 2-1-1 —a winning formula, as you have it, the placement of Laferriere is possibly a curse as of right now, particularly for the player. Kopitar comes back, and Laferriere should go back next to Byfield and Fiala, right? Well, now Hiller has Perry and Armia to throw up and down the lineup. There’s a good chance Laferriere finds a chunk of his ice being deployed on the fourth line.
Second Stat: 17:39
Speaking of records and sacrifices, the Kings are winning, and that’s the highest ice time that Brandt Clarke has received in the last four games. In those four, it goes 17:39, 14:36, 14:55, and 16:18, most recently against Dallas. Those times rank next to last, last, last, and next to last amongst the Kings' defenseman.
Does anyone really worry when the team is winning?
Well, the short term looks great. Long-term, on the other hand, is more glaring. The future number one defenseman for the franchise is being deployed as the fifth defenseman at even strength (116:52 vs 112:40 of Joel Edmundson). His share of all situational ice time on the Kings’ backend is the lowest in the d-core, at 27.3%. The only reason he buoys over Edmundson in games during this 2-1-1 resurgence (other than the 1-2-1 start) is that he's playing as the dual quarterback option the Kings are throwing out on the second power-play unit.
The other quarterback is Drew Doughty, having a 39% total share of ice time (all situations). Doughty does indeed have the second-highest expected goals rate on the backend, at 0.4, second only to Clarke’s 0.7. Eight of Clarke’s 12 total giveaways are outside the defensive zone. For Doughty, it is only five out of his 15, with ten inside his own zone. Natural Stat Trick has individual scoring chances created by Clarke at seven, with just two to Doughty at five-on-five this season.
That’s not to say Doughty isn't having a good season; he’s found a groove next to Brian Dumoulin to form a very effective pairing. But when you look at the defensive core of the Kings, and only seven points (3-4-7) have been scored at even strength, it’s more of a head scratcher to see that the Kings' most offensively gifted player on the backend is spending far more time on the bench than on the ice.
But hey–winning matters, despite the clear curse.
Third Stat: .939%
In the offseason, one of my biggest concerns for these Kings was that if Darcy Kuemper dropped off from his spectacular season last year, these boys in silver and black would be in a heap of trouble.
In the three games to start the year for Kuemper, he posted a .886% SV, a 3.35 GAA, a high danger save percentage of .848, five rush attempts against, with the average shot coming from 32.69 ft, and the average goal from 18.25 ft.
He has since then returned to form in his two-game return. In the 122:27 all situations, Kuemper has posted a .939 save percentage and a 1.47 GAA. His high-danger shot save percentage is absurd —.944% since his return. He’s only seen three rush attempts —a cap to tip there to the players in front of him. That, added to the fact that the average shot has been coming from 34.27 ft, though the goal average length is from 27.67 ft.
His Wins Above Replacement has shot back up from the cellar of the goalie rankings to the middle ground (15th at .24) just with those two games alone. Early-season trends tend to have that effect. Regardless of the before and after, Kuemper is still holding in the top ten lowest in the amount of rebounds given up per save at .049, ranking eighth-lowest (was .052 last season).
The bottom line? He’s a blessing when he’s the Kuemper that the Kings have conformed to seeing regularly last season. I question whether or not those numbers can be replicated over the course of a season, the effect of his early-season injury, and his age.
Despite these factors, his two-game sample gives plenty of room to think his play has at least stabilized the crease.
All stats courtesy of NaturalStatTrick, Hockey reference, and Moneypuck