Now that the Montreal Canadiens have played two games, we used that knowledge to make predictions about the 2023-24 season.
My colleagues at the Canadiens Connection podcast made their predictions about the Montreal Canadiens prior to the start of the 2023-24 NHL season.
I decided to wait until after the first week of the season. With two games in the books, it was an opportunity to evaluate Martin St. Louis’ line combinations, follow his player usage and review a small sample of the team’s collective play.
Taking into account what I learned from the first week of the Canadiens season, I present my predictions.
Wednesday’s season opener against the Maple Leafs saw contribution from all four lines and Montreal outscoring their opponents 4-1 during even strength play despite the 6-5 shootout loss. On Saturday, the Bell Centre fans walked out of the building happy after seeing a 3-2 win for the home team over the Chicago Blackhawks.
Most Points
Last season, Nick Suzuki led the team with 66 points, 28 points ahead of Kirby Dach. The number of games played by both players is the main reason that there’s a huge gap between both players. Suzuki was the only player on the team that dressed for 82 games, while Dach was dressed for 58 matches.
I believe that the same duo will lead the team in points at the end of the season. It’s hard to ignore the captain’s ironman capabilities since the start of his NHL career. He has not missed any games in the first four years of his career.
One of the outstanding questions for the season has been to determine the third piece to complete the duo of Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Veteran Josh Anderson got the first audition and the trio has produced one goal through two games.
Dach has been united with Alex Newhook and Juraj Slafkovsky on the second line and the trio delivered two even strengths goals on opening night. The 22-year-old did not finish Saturday’s game due to a lower body injury that occurred in the first period.
Prediction: Suzuki will lead the team with 63 points.
Most Goals
There wasn’t any number crunching or extensive research required to come up with Caufield as the team’s leading goal scorer. Last season, he co-led the team with Suzuki with 26 goals. The difference between both is that Caufield reached that mark in 46 matches compared to his teammates’ 82 games. If he continued scoring at the same pace for 82 games, Caufield would reach the 46-goal plateau.
The 5-foot-8-inch forward has lit the red light twice to start the season. It's unreasonable to expect him to finish with 82 goals, but he has the potential to become the team's first 50-goal scorer since Stephane Richer in 1989-90.
Prediction: Caufield will lead the team and set a personal record with 44 goals.
Most Improved
This was not an easy selection but in the end, the decision landed on Alex Newhook. The St. John's native was acquired by the Canadiens on June 27th from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange of two early round draft picks and Gianni Fairbrother.
Last season, Newhook registered 14 goals and 30 points in 82 games with the Avalanche, while averaging 13:57 of ice time.
In his Canadiens debut, he recorded two goals and became the eighth player in team history to score multiple times in their debut. The expectation is that Newhook has a bigger role with his new team compared to Colorado.
In a small sample size of just two matches, Newhook has been thrown over the boards for an average 15:46 of ice time, nearly two minutes more than last season's average with the Avalanche.
Prediction: With a fresh start in a new organization with a new coach and more responsibilities, I predict that Newhook sets a new personal career high in points with 45, surpassing the 33 points he achieved in 2021-22.
Biggest Disappointment
Brendan Gallagher is in his 12th season with the Canadiens and it's evident that his best years are behind him. It's unanimous that the 31-year-old bleeds red, white, and blue and leaves everything on the ice.
Gallagher, a two-time 30-goal scorer, is on a downhill. He can't keep up with today's National Hockey League.
The bad news is that management is limited on how to handle this situation. Gallagher is under contract for another three seasons on a deal that counts $6.5 million against the salary cap.
The contract that was signed under Marc Bergevin's tenure includes a no movement clause. The most likely way to cut ties with the forward is a buyout at the end of the season, that would reduce the cap hit to an average of $2.16 million until the end of the 2029-30 season.
In the short term, his ice time has been reduced to a team-low average of 11:22 through the two games.
Prediction: Gallagher is dressed for 25 games and obtains 11 points.
Standings
The Canadiens finished 28th overall in 2022-23 with 68 points. The buzzword since the golf of tournament has been 'growth.' At the event, Jeff Gorton did not want to pronounce 'playoffs,' preferring to refer it to the p-word.
If the organization isn't even targeting a spot in the playoffs, how can anyone expect them to clinch a playoff birth?
Last season, the Canadiens managed to total 68 points despite setting a record for the amount of man-games lost. Despite playing in a difficult division, I expect the team to remain healthier this season and surpass last year's point total.
Prediction: Seventh place finish in the Atlantic Division with 75 points.
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