The clock is ticking for the New York Islanders to commit to a direction as the March 7 Trade Deadline nears.
Patrick Roy's squad is only three points shy of a playoff spot with 21 games remaining in the season, meaning they could understandably continue to push with the current core.
However, the season has exposed the team's weaknesses, and selling has become increasingly likely.
Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri -- the team's two most prominent pending free agents and trade chips -- could land valuable returns on the trade market.
If Lou Lamoriello decides to sell, he will likely go after young roster players and draft capital, and it is pivotal he makes the correct moves.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">If the Islanders are making trades to acquire draft capital, it makes a lot of sense to go after 2025 second and third round picks while first rounders should be reserved for 2026 only. 2025 has more uncertainty while 2026 should have a stronger 10-25 range <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Isles?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Isles</a></p>— Michael Ostrower (@michaelost13) <a href="https://twitter.com/michaelost13/status/1897304511708102866?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>Regarding young players, that will be left to the scouts.
For draft picks, evaluating the projected strengths and weaknesses of future draft classes, along with their historical value, is essential for effective asset management.
At the 2024 Draft, Lamoriello traded back in the first and second rounds to acquire an additional second-round pick from the Chicago Blackhawks.
He was still able to land Cole Eiserman -- a projected top 12 pick -- in the first round (No. 20), while also bringing in Jesse Pulkkinen (No. 54) and Kamil Bednarik (No. 61), two players with rankings as high as the top 35.
The 2024 Draft had a consensus top prospect in Macklin Celebrini, but there was a lack of consensus in the rankings from there, and the 2025 NHL Draft is projected to be even more unpredictable.
The first overall pick could be James Hagens or Michael Misa, but Matthew Schaefer, Porter Martone, and Anton Fronell could all fight for the spot.
From there, dozens of prospects could land anywhere from the top 10 to outside the top 50.
As a result, teams selecting in the second round will have a chance to snag a top 20 or 25 prospect.
Notably, the 2026 Draft -- while over 15 months away -- is expected to be among the strongest in recent memory, led by Gavin McKenna, Viggo Björck, Ryan Roobroeck, and Ivar Stenberg.
Even the depth in the draft is strong, with many scouts expecting the second half of the first round to contain top-10 caliber prospects in typical drafts.
So, if the Islanders were to go after draft capital in a trade, they should prioritize second and third-round picks in the 2025 Draft while prioritizing first-round picks for the 2026 Draft.
In such trades, Nelson and Palmieri would presumably be the first players to go.
Nelson should fetch a first-round pick and other assets, with teams like the Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild, Winnipeg Jets, and New Jersey Devils among the leading suitors.
Coincidentally, of the teams listed, only Winnipeg currently possesses a first-round pick in the 2025 Draft, meaning the other teams would have to move their 2026 first-round picks to get a deal done, boding well for the Islanders.
Going after first-round picks in 2026 instead of 2025 would also allow the Islanders to take more time to assess their future.
Since draft capital always has value, gaining a first-round pick will leave the team with a reliable asset to potentially flip for a young, controllable roster player, much like the team did for Alexander Romanov at the 2022 Draft.
Once the Islanders use the pick, only teams that highly value the selected prospect will be inclined to negotiate a deal stemming from the initial Nelson trade. Acquiring a 2026 first-round pick provides flexibility, allowing the team to leverage it at the 2025 Draft, the start of 2025 Free Agency, during the 2025-26 season, or at the 2026 Draft.
Making an additional selection in the first round of the 2025 Draft would not be the end of the world, but it would likely mean the team is rebuilding -- something that is unlikely given Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, and Ilya Sorokin are signed long-term.
From an asset management and roster construction standpoint, retaining a flexible asset like an additional 2026 first-round pick will be crucial heading into the offseason, especially with the projected 8.5% salary cap increase. This rise will likely lead to inflated free-agent contracts, making draft capital even more valuable as a trade asset or cost-controlled roster addition.
An understandable counterargument to this idea would be to acquire a 2025 first-round pick and then flip it on draft day if the Islanders do not want to use the selection, just like the Philadelphia Flyers did with the Edmonton Oilers at the 2024 Draft.
However, doing so would assume a team will make the trade, something Lamoriello should not rely on.
To the idea other teams know the 2026 Draft is projected to be stronger than 2025, it is important to understand that historically, draft capital in more distant drafts has been valued less.
This is evident in cases like the Carolina Hurricanes acquiring the Blackhawks’ 2025 third-round pick -- a projected bottom-five team in the NHL -- at the 2024 Draft in exchange for the 92nd overall pick that year.
Despite knowing their 2025 third-round pick would likely be over 20 selections earlier than the 92nd overall pick they were receiving, the Blackhawks opted to make the trade, prioritizing immediate returns over waiting an extra year.
For Palmieri, a first-round pick may be a reach, but it is still possible, especially if the Islanders retain on his $5 million cap hit and add another small asset like a mid-round draft pick.
If trade talks don't reach that point, going after mid-round draft picks in 2025 could be a way to gain value.
While Nelson and Palmieri are the most likely trade candidates, the Islanders could also explore moving JeanGabriel Pageau, Scott Mayfield, and Casey Cizikas, each of whom could yield varying levels of return depending on market demand and team needs.