LOS ANGELES -- The New York Islanders are at war with leverage as we count down the hours until the 2025 NHL Draft.
Not only does first-time general manager Mathieu Darche own the first selection, one of the most valuable pieces one could have, but he also has Noah Dobson.
The 25-year-old defenseman is a hot commodity with many teams lining up for the chance to bring him in, even if he is going to cost $9-$10 million on a long-term extension.
While it's great that the Islanders have someone that many want, that doesn't mean they have complete leverage in the situation. As mentioned, Dobson has to sign that extension, meaning that he can pretty much dictate exactly where he wants to go.
The war with leverage.
It sounds like the Montreal Canadiens, who own picks No. 16 and No. 17, and the Columbus Blue Jackets, who own picks No. 14 and No. 20, are the two likley landing spots, but it wouldn't be right, just yet, to rule out the St. Louis Blues or the Nashville Predators.
So, what happens after the Dobson trade?
As mentioned in this morning's The Elmonters, if the opportunity presents itself, don't be shocked if Darche leaves his mark and does everything he can to draft Long Island native James Hagens.
The expectation is that Darche has an idea of what it would take to flip incoming assets for the opportunity to move up more.
If Dobson gets dealt to a team not in the top 10, expect the incoming picks to be flipped with either the Utah Mammoth or the Nashville Predators, who own pick No. 4 and No. 5, respectively.
A Dobson deal to the Utah Mammoth (No. 4) or the Nashville Predators (No. 5) would not require a secondary deal to be made, since the Islanders could draft Hagens there.
Listen, Hagens could fall, and fall, and fall—which only makes things "cheaper" for the Islanders, a team that has no leverage.
The Dobson trade may happen before tonight, and the following deal will be announced at the podium. It shouldn't come as a surprise if the trades are finalized prior to that.
The focus is solely on Dobson—rightfully so—but centerman Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who has one season left on his deal at $5 million annually, could also be on the move. He has a modified no-trade clause of 16 teams and is also coming off a very strong campaign.
He led the NHL with a 59.6 face-off winning percentage and recorded his best offensive season—he scored 14 goals with 28 assists—since 2019–20.
Could he be part of a package for the Islanders to get even more assets, or will Darche hold on to him until the 2026 NHL Trade Deadline?
Depending on what the return is for Dobson, does Darche go out and re-sign Tony DeAngelo to fill his hole on the right side?
The Islanders have Ryan Pulock, Scott Mayfield, and Adam Boqvist already under contract, but DeAngelo was a clear fit in the system and played solid enough with pending restricted free agent Alexander Romanov.
The Islanders would essentially find themselves with an extra $8–$9 million to play with if Dobson isn't coming back.
Do the Islanders use that additional cap space—likely around $10 million or so—to go fishing for a Nikolaj Ehlers or a Brock Boeser to address their scoring issues?
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PHOTO: Dennis Schneidler-Imagn Images