New York Rangers starter Igor Shesterkin and New York Islanders starter Ilya Sorokin have failed to mask team mistakes like they've done in years past.
EAST MEADOW, NY -- As we approach the halfway mark of the 2023-24 season, the New York Rangers are in the driver's seat in the Metropolitan Division with 54 points (26-11-2) in 39 games.
The New York Islanders are two cars back but driving at a slower speed, with 46 points (18-11-10) in games.
Despite the point disparity, both head coach Peter Laviolette and Lane Lambert have dealt with similar issues.
For two teams that have elite starting netminders, it's been their inconsistent play that's been a negative standout this season.
On the surface, it's hard to blame Igor Shesterkin and Ilya Sorokin, given the defensive struggles in front of them. But when their teams have needed a big-time stop in a critical moment, they haven't answered the call at the rate we have seen in years past.
It's not even that both goaltenders have played poorly (maybe at times) but that they've set such a high bar that when they don't come up with the big-time stop, we think they're struggling.
Last season, both goaltenders were named All-Stars in 2022-23 and kept up that superstar play the entire year.
For Shesterkin, his 2022-23 season was quite strong, posting a GSAA of 18.17 with a GSAE of 28.1.
He allowed four or more goals 12 times in 58 games and just had one game where five pucks beat him for a 2.48 GAA, with a .916 SV% and three shutouts.
Coincidentally, both goaltenders faced 29.64 shots per game.
Shesterkin is having a statistically average season in 2023-24, according to NHL Edge.
The league average goals against average is 2.85, and he has a 2.98.
Shesterkin has a .905 save percentage, with the league average sitting at .903.
The 2022 Vezina Trophy winner has allowed 20 mid-range goals this season and 40 high-danger goals (slot/net-front).
Statistics don’t paint the whole picture, but the metric brush is unique and can assist the eye. If you sit down and watch, Shesterkin has come up big in certain moments but less frequently than in past years.
That was exemplified on Pettersson's goal Monday night:
The defense struggled mightily off the rush and with zone entries through regroups. But the momentum of the game can completely swing if he stands up the Canucks best forward in the big moment.
Shesterkin just hasn't been Superman with the wind in his back like he’s been in the last couple of years.
In a Vezina-finalist 2022-23 campaign, Sorokin posted a 23.42 Goals Saved Above Average at 5-on-5 with a 38.7 Goals Saved Above Expected (counts shot quality and is the better stat).
That doesn't mean there weren't times when Sorokin allowed his fair share of goals.
He allowed four or more goals 14 times in 62 appearances, five or more six times, allowing six just once, playing to a 2.34 GAA, with a .924 SV% and a league-high six shutouts.
According to NHL Edge, the league average GAA sits at 2.98, so Sorokin has blown past that. His high-danger save percentage (.836) is above league average (.798), and he has allowed 33 high-danger goals against, with 35 goals coming off mid-range shots.
Against the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday night, Sorokin wasn't at his best, allowing a few goals he would want back in a 5-3 loss.
Again, the teams in front of them have let both netminders down, but both can do more to help mask certain mistakes.
In both instances, it's been the play of their backups that has also made their lack of clutchness more of a story.
Jonathan Quick has revitalized his career in his first stint on Broadway, owning a 2.44 GAA with a .915 SV% in 14 appearances.
Although Semyon Varlamov is currently out injured, he's been more consistent, with a 2.78 GAA and a .918 SV% in 14 appearances.
Both teams have put tremendous pressure on their goaltenders on a nightly basis, but that's nothing new. So, the question becomes, can Sorokin and Shesterkin rediscover the game that put their names in the convo of best in the world?
Hockey fans love to get caught up in stats, and sometimes they are good for painting a beautiful picture. But with any stat, the flaw is that analytics don't calculate pressure and when a save is timely or not.
Even if both New York metropolitan teams make the postseason, the only way a Stanley Cup run is in the near future rests on the shoulders of No. 31 and No. 30.
The question is, when that time comes, will they be the superstars they've proven to be, or will their struggles to be clutch prove fatal?