For the first time all postseason, the Edmonton Oilers are on the brink of elimination.
After a disastrous loss at home, on Saturday night, the Oilers find themselves down 3-2 in the series and must win a pair of games, if they want to win hockey’s ultimate prize.
Game 6 is tonight. What can we expect?
Solon Mihas expects a very similar game from the Panthers. A game involving a suffocating forecheck and execution of timely plays.
On the flip side, Mihas expects a completely different game from the Oilers. Edmonton has struggled to start games the right way during this series, and giving up the first goal is a major reason.
The Panthers have scored first in four of five games this series. The only game they didn’t? Game 1.
The Panthers have also not gone a single first period this series without recording, at least, two goals.
Mihas predicts that the Panthers will hoist the Stanley Cup, for the second consecutive season, on home ice.
Yes, I predicted the Oilers to win in six, but that is no longer a possibility.
Because of that, I have to stick with my gut and honor the fact that I believe whichever team wins Game 5 will also win Game 6. In this scenario, that would be the Cats.
Sam Bennett will also be awarded the Conn Smythe at the end of the night.
THE MAVEN’S PREDICTION: Oilers win next two games because their goaltending will shape up; they play well in difficult situations and the McDavid-Draisaitl team will prevail.
The Oilers are 7-4 on the road this postseason, the Panthers are 5-4 at home. A year ago, these teams were in an identical position. Edmonton had their backs against the wall, on the brink of elimination, but how we got to that point this time is not the same.
Last year, Florida won the first three games, before needing FOUR attempts to close out the series. That will not be the case this time around.
Everyone says “the fourth win is always the hardest,” but I’ve said it from the start of the series, whichever team gets the first opportunity to seal the deal will.
Here are some observations from Game 5:
GOALTENDING: The biggest question of this series has been Edmonton's goaltending. Ahead of Game 6, Oilers Head Coach, Kris Knoblauch once again has to ask himself the question, who will start this one?
That should not be a question at this point of the season, and realistically, if a team is questioning who their starting goaltender is prior to a Game 6 elimination game of the Stanley Cup Final, the truth is you never really had one.
I don’t think Knoblauch could go right or wrong with whatever the final decision is, because realistically you are flipping a coin one way or another, but Stuart Skinner wins the coin toss.
Notes To Munch On While Watching The Stanley Cup Final
<b>1.</b> My heart is with the Florida Panthers but my brain says the Oilers will take the next two games. (It's also a gut feeling.) Goaltending will surprise and McDavid will come up $$.
Florida’s Head Coach Paul Maurice will not have trouble naming his starter. Sergei Bobrovsky is set to take the crease for his 64th consecutive playoff game for the Panthers.
FORECHECK, BACKCHECK, PAYCHECK: The Panthers play a very fast and physical game, and that was the game they executed almost perfectly during Game 5.
Florida’s forecheck, along with their offensive and neutral zone pressure, forces Edmonton's defensemen to make mistakes causing turnovers and elongated offensive zone time.
Take for example, in Game 5, Mattius Ekholm’s turnover at the redline which led to Florida's second tally of the game, which for me was the turning point of that game.
Whether they are in the defensive zone, neutral zone, or offensive zone, it feels as though a Panthers player is always the first to a loose puck. And if they’re not first on pucks, they win the board battles.
The Panthers have been doing the little things better than the Oilers, and that is, and will be, the difference maker in this series.
DEPTH: The Panthers have nine players who have recorded 15+ points this postseason. Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk are tied for the team lead with 22 points each.
The Oilers have seven players who have recorded at least 10+ points this postseason with four of them recording 20+ points, and two with 30+ points.
In other words, it's evident that the Cats have the deeper, more reliable lineup. As a result, when their top players aren’t performing, there’s no panic because it’s a next man up mentality.
On the flip side, the Oilers heavily rely on two guys, which makes Florida’s game plan that much easier… shut down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
If the Panthers execute their game plan, and win a second consecutive Stanley Cup, they will cement themselves as a modern day dynasty.
What have both teams learned from last season's experiences? We’ll find out tonight.