Ottawa has generally gone a good job of keeping opposing shooters to the outside.
Beat the Stanley Cup champions one day, lose to the Montreal Canadiens the next. A day later, there is a referendum on Brady Tkachuk's leadership skills on social media.
Welcome to the 2024-25 season, everyone.
The dynamics at the start of the Ottawa Senators season were always problematic.
After a dragged-out sale process, new ownership and management have just started putting their stamp on this franchise. Travis Green was hired this summer as the new head coach, and it is reasonable to assume it will take time for this group to learn the intricacies of the systems and play the way he wants.
Under normal circumstances, asking for patience and time would be entirely warranted. The unfortunate reality is that its fans and the team's young core have endured several years in which poor starts have sunk their season before it ever truly had a chance to get off the ground.
It makes for a delicate balancing act.
Despite putting up an excellent first period against the Panthers and ultimately winning the game, there is a 'what have you done lately for me' mentality that can permeate a fan base. Playing five consecutive poor periods and losing to the Canadiens will inevitably fuel concerns regarding the possibility of another poor start.
Admittedly, the situation could be better.
Through two games at five-on-five, the Senators have generated 44.19 percent of the total shots (CF%), 50.59 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 33.3 of the total goals (GF%), and 46.48 percent of the expected goals per NaturalStatTrick.
Those numbers are not encouraging, but it serves everyone well to remember that it is still early. Last year's Cup finalist, the Edmonton Oilers, are brandishing a 0-3-0 record after last night's loss to Calgary. It could always be worse.
The Senators' underlying metrics are not dominant, but their third pairing of Travis Hamonic and Tyler Kleven has drawn attention to their struggles. In the 21 minutes and 17 seconds that they have played together at five-on-five, the Senators have generated 30.56 percent of the shots (CF%), 28.57 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 22.62 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).
Those numbers are outlandishly bad, but without that pairing playing together, the Senators have generated a far more respectable 47.79 percent of the shots (CF%), 54.93 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), and 51.74 percent of the expected goals.
As bad as Kleven and Hamonic have looked together, the Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub pairing has been equally bad. Last season, that duo posted the Senators' best shot and goal suppression metrics. To have that same pairing get cratered through the team's first two games at a rate comparable to the Kleven/Hamonic pairing is wild, considering how well the duo performed last season.
Of the defensive pairings who logged more than 300 five-on-five minutes together in 2023-24, Sanderson and Zub had the league's 14th-highest expected goals for rating (55.32 xGF%).
A glass-half-full perspective would recognize that the third pairing features an inexperienced young defenceman and a veteran who has put up sub-replacement level numbers for years; the Sanderson-Zub pairing, meanwhile, has a ton of talent and a history of playing at a high level. It is not a stretch to suggest that they will be better. Much, much, much better.
The frustrations with the team's performance through two games are understandable. The team's second line featuring Josh Norris and Drake Batherson has been awful, which chafes the nerves of fans who want to see encouraging signs from Norris, given his recent recovery from a third shoulder surgery and the team's investment in him. Having the third defensive get caved in early only helps bolster the opinions of fans hoping for a change at the team's weakest position.
Confidence can waver across small sample sizes and watching a team struggle out of the gates when the season is new, and optimism is high is always more challenging. The voices of disdain are always louder at the beginning of the season when more sets of eyes are focused on the team.
The irony is that for all of the attention paid to the transition from Jacques Martin to Travis Green and how this group needs to continue playing the right way, the rate at which the team allows expected goals is pretty low.
NaturalStatTrick credits the Senators with allowing 2.31 expected goals per 60, which is the 12th-best rate in the league.
That vibes with what HockeyViz's data shows.
It felt especially true in the Senators' first game against the Panthers, but Ottawa has done a great job keeping the opposition's offence to the perimeter.
Unfortunately, the same is true for the Senators' offence. Outside of the first period against the Panthers, the team has struggled to sustain offensive zone pressure.
According to NaturalStatTrick's data, the Senators rank towards the bottom of the league in several rate metrics: shots taken (51.86 CF/60, 27th), shots on goal (29.34 SF/60, 14th), goals scored (1.36 GF/60, T-25th), and expected goals (2.00 xGF/60, 27th).
After the first two games, an early mantra was to pay more attention to detail and do the little things better. If the Senators can care for the puck better in their own end, it will allow them to break out easier and transition the puck up the ice more efficiently. The less time they spend in their own end, the more the Senators' underlying metrics should improve.