As the Senators close out their home schedule tonight, the team will likely look very different the next time they get together at the CTC.
The Ottawa Senators' 2023-24 home schedule comes to a close tonight against the Montreal Canadiens. And just like the six before it, it won't be followed up with an invitation to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
After tonight's home finale, the Senators' next meaningful home game is six months away. For those reasons, these last few games will be emotional for this group.
But there's also the matter of this closely-knit squad knowing this is probably the last time they'll play with certain friends and teammates. Sure, every NHL team has a few roster tweaks from one season to the next, but it feels like the Ottawa Senators require meaningful roster surgery, not just a nip and tuck.
Could they just roll it back, give the boys a pass because the core is so young, and hope next season will finally be the year they don't fully destroy their season before December?
Maybe. But if the kids are on the right path, they should have improved this season. They actually got worse. And if coaching was the thing holding them back, they should have improved a lot after D.J. Smith was shown the door. They didn't. Not really.
Under Smith, the Sens were four games under 500. Under Jacques Martin, they're currently one game under 500. Not exactly the classic new coach bump.
If he were still around, former GM Pierre Dorion might be inclined this summer to protect what he tried to build. Giving up on certain guys – expensive guys – would be an admission of error for Dorion.
New GM Steve Staios doesn't have any of that pressure. Except for Boris Katchouk, Staios has no affiliation with any of these players. He's had the whole season to see what fits and what doesn't. And now, with Dave Poulin helping him steer the ship, Staios is in a position to freely make changes and be brutally objective about his decisions. That may include players that some fans, media, and previous management might currently consider untouchable.
Here's tonight's projected lineup for the game against Montreal. As you read it, how many of these players have earned a guaranteed return to the lineup for the next home game this fall? How many are truly irreplaceable?
Brady Tkachuk -- Shane Pinto -- Drake Batherson
Mathieu Joseph -- Ridly Greig -- Claude Giroux
Boris Katchouk -- Mark Kastelic -- Parker Kelly
Bokondji Imama -- Jiri Smejkal -- Dominik Kubalik
Jake Sanderson -- Artem Zub
Thomas Chabot -- Erik Brannstrom
Jakob Chychrun -- Jacob Bernard-Docker
Joonas Korpisalo
Injured: Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, Angus Crookshank
Hopefully for Sens fans, Staios has correctly identified the problems with the current roster, and which players are overrated or expendable. Along with prospects and picks, that's the ideal currency required to buy the three roster elements they need – better defence, physical two-way players who win puck battles, and goaltending.
But it remains to be seen if the rookie GM is able or even willing to make significant changes. At the NHL GM meetings last month, Staios seemed to give this group a pass, suggesting to TSN that this season's "expectations were a bit debilitating" for the team.
If this team was felled by the horrors of "expectations," that's all the more reason to make changes. In some cases, the subtractions may be as valuable as the additions.