Josh Norris Trade Speculation: Are The Ottawa Senators Considering A Breakup Of Their Core?

After another sluggish start, the Senators are reportedly discussing ways to shakeup the core of the team.

When a team is unexpectedly underperforming while caught in the midst of a five-game losing streak, threats of change will inevitably rise.

It is a results-based industry, after all, and the Ottawa Senators have certainly fallen short of expectations. When there is already a significant amount of pressure on the team to play competitive games and vie for a playoff spot, any shortcomings will pressure the organization to right the ship.

Fans are clamouring for a catalyst for change. It could be as simple as better goaltending or the team burying more chances. It could also come in the form of a trade, and yesterday, two reports surfaced that the Senators were kicking tires and looking at ways to improve their club.

Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch was the first to report that the Senators have aggressively pursued adding a defenceman following news that Artem Zub would be out indefinitely with a fractured foot.

Speaking on the Daily Faceoff Live yesterday, Professional Hockey Writers Association president Frank Seravalli indicated that the Senators have held internal talks discussing the prospect of breaking up their young core.

"Consider some of the reporting that was out there today," Seravalli explained to host Tyler Yakemchuk. "The New York Rangers are open and willing to make changes. This is a team that's been one of the most successful teams in the league. So, what does that mean now about the Ottawa Senators, who have been, for the last number of years, one of the least successful teams?

"At some point, you begin to smash your head against the wall when you try and break through, doing the same thing over and over and over again. And that's not to say that all hope is lost or that this team can't figure it out. But, when you have sequences like the Canucks had with them the other night, just almost toying with them at times, that certainly, to me, raises an eyebrow. I think you have to be willing to shake things up and make a bigger splash."

Much of what Seravalli said sounds like an assumption. It certainly flies in the face of the public support that general manager Steve Staios and head coach Travis Green have given recently. Granted, it is possible that what they relay to the media does not necessarily represent their true beliefs. It is not like the organization will criticize its players publicly or suggest that the team is on the verge of a shakeup.

Seravalli continued.

"I was told over the weekend that among the conversations that the Sens have been in over the last week to 10 days, in terms of shaking up that core, one of the names that's popped to the surface has been Josh Norris. Look, he's got a number of years left on his deal - five after this one. The injury history is certainly significant, but if you're going to start to make changes, you've got to begin to attack some of the core that's been there for a long time that hasn't had some success. And Norris would be one of those guys that jumps to the top of the page."

The front office is only doing its job if it constantly looks at hypotheticals and ways to improve the team. The previous regime's draft and trade records robbed the system of quality prospects that could play on the parent roster or be used as trade chips to bring back an NHL player. Without those assets in the system, it is especially difficult to move subsequent draft picks out of concern that it would just push one of the organization's problems further down the road.

If the Senators want to improve their team, they will likely have to do it by moving pieces from their NHL roster. Shane Pinto and Ridly Greig will have value because of their age, upside and inexpensiveness. But, for those same reasons, Ottawa will likely want to keep them.

If Seravalli is correct in assuming the Senators want to shake things up, trading pieces of the team's depth will not accomplish that, and it likely won't bring anything of consequence back either.

Only a trade of a core piece will do that.

The problem is that the Senators will not trade their captain or Tim Stützle. Drake Batherson is having a point-per-game season and has another two years on his team-friendly extension. Jake Sanderson is untouchable on the back end. That essentially leaves just Thomas Chabot or Josh Norris as prospective candidates, but Ottawa's defensive depth is so thin that trading Chabot would potentially exacerbate it further. Moreover, although his defensive play is often maligned online, he provides a lot of value through his puck-moving and transitional play.

As frustrating as his defensive miscues can be, the good outweighs the bad when it comes to Chabot.

The logic for moving Norris makes sense on some levels. He is highly productive, but that production is predicated on him burying the chances he does get. HockeyViz's data portrays Norris' isolated offensive impact as being very small.

Defensively, Norris' impact has been fine, with contributions bordering on being league-average.

Considering the cost and term remaining on Norris' eight-year contract that carries a $7.95 million cap hit through the 2029-30 season, it would make sense for management to question whether this money could be allocated differently. And, that is before even mentioning his injury history. With the exception of Vladimir Tarasenko, very few players have been able to perform at a high level following three surgical procedures on one shoulder.

To Norris' credit, he has not shied away from the game's physicality. He does not look passive or afraid on the ice because he is subliminally focused on protecting his shoulder.

Regarding his on-ice impact, it is worth remembering that he has only played in 58 games across the last two seasons.

It may take time for his all-around game to resemble what it was pre-injury -- assuming it can get there at all. His on-ice impacts across the season may be minor, but over the Senators' last ten games, Norris leads the Senators in five-on-five points per 60 (2.12 Pts/60), is second in individual expected goals per 60 (0.85 ixG/60), and is fourth in individual scoring chances for (7.97 iSCF/60) per NaturalStatTrick.

It is a small sample size, but his play is trending up. For what it's worth, I wrote about some of the context here.

Hypothetically, if the Senators were going to shake up its young core, it stands to reason that Norris would be the likeliest candidate to move. I just have a hard time believing that the time to move him would be now when the market would be at its smallest.