In honour of Shane Pinto’s recent four-year contract extension, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to give some way-too-early predictions and guesses on the future of upcoming Sens’ roster players who have their contracts expiring in future seasons. With most of the core now locked up, it is interesting to look at the staggering of the players' contracts and the different factors that may impact their decision to re-sign here.

For the purposes of this exercise, I did not include any players that are pending RFA’s and will limit the list to pending UFA’s only.

Summer 2026

Claude Giroux (38), David Perron (38), Nick Jensen (35), Lars Eller (37), Nick Cousins (32)

An interesting group to evaluate. First, on Giroux, I think it’s safe to assume at this point that Giroux will probably want to remain a Senator until he retires (assuming there’s mutual interest). With his resurgence early this season, I don’t see any reason why the team wouldn’t bring him back for another year, especially given that his contract requirements have evolved into being very manageable with the age 35+ bonus options available.

Even if Nick Jensen were back to 100% health (which is not currently the case), I don’t think he’d be in the plans to return. The Sens now have a number of right shot D options that they can use to replace him. Because he’s a warrior and a good teammate, I suppose the door isn’t completely closed on him being re-signed but that would appear to be a longshot.

All of Perron, Eller and Cousins I would lean towards not being re-signed but the Sens may not want to allow too many veteran players to depart simultaneously so there’s always a chance to have one of them to come back. Cousins was already in this position this past off-season and came back for another go but I’m not sure lightning strikes twice for him. If I had to guess, I’d say Perron has the best chance at re-signing, especially if his contract ask comes down significantly from the $4MM AAV he signed for 2 years ago.

A quick note: Olle Lycksell could potentially become a UFA depending on how many NHL games he plays this year. I don’t really have much of an opinion on his re-signing but I’ll assume if he gets to UFA status, he’s probably leaving.

Summer 2027

Drake Batherson (29), Artem Zub (31), Michael Amadio (31), Nik Matinpalo (28), Kurtis MacDermid (33)

Here’s where it gets interesting. Batherson is undeniably part of the core of the team, drafted and developed here, and the longest-tenured player in the organization next to Thomas Chabot.

Here’s where I might enrage some fans and say I think that he’s more likely to be on another team for his next contract than to be re-signed. This is not because he isn’t valuable, but the team is going to have to make some decisions on which core players to retain, and you simply can’t keep all of them indefinitely, cap increase or not.

One of the main benefits Batherson brings right now is his bargain deal. When he’s set to become a (most likely) $8-$9 million player on his next contract, that benefit goes away. He’s a talented scoring winger with not great defensive instincts. This is one of the easier spots to replace if you’re looking at cheaper options. If the Sens don’t make the kind of playoff run they expect this year, they will be looking to make some bigger changes this summer, and Batherson, with one year left, could be the piece they identify to deal for a different mix.

Zub is also interesting. A guy they’d probably love to keep around, but still have to be careful on the salary expenditure. Zub not being a big offensive producer (this season’s start excluded) will somewhat limit his earning potential, but as a top-pairing right-shot d-man who is incredibly consistent, he’d have a lot of suitors on the open market. It may be hard for him to resist testing that market. The Sens would have to work hard to keep him. I’ll put the odds of that happening as a toss-up.

Amadio also seems like a toss-up and will depend on how he performs between now and the end of his contract. He’s obviously punching above his contract weight right now, and as a popular teammate and versatile forward, there would most likely be interest in him sticking around if that continues.

Matinpalo is a depth piece that has developed into an everyday player that will probably be dependent on how he establishes himself here and whether it’s to the point where he prices himself out of this market, still TBD.

And if we’re talking about contract decisions on Kurtis MacDermid in the summer of 2027, something has gone horribly wrong.

Summer 2028

Brady Tkachuk (28), Thomas Chabot (31), Fabian Zetterlund (28)

Here’s the big one. On Brady, I’m going to come out and say that of all the pending UFA’s the Sens have, this is the one I’m most confident of sticking around on their next deal. Brady is the captain, the face of the franchise and frankly irreplaceable. While he’s going to demand a big raise, I can’t imagine the team would ever let Brady leave over contract terms.

The only conceivable reason why Tkachuk would leave is if he grows disillusioned with the team’s prospects of winning. As long as the team appears to be progressing towards or has reached contender status, I don’t think this will be a problem. Talk of him wanting to be in a U.S. market or to play with his brother is overblown in my opinion. Brady clearly loves this city, the organization, the fan base and has started his family here. A serious rift would have to arise for that to change.

Chabot is less likely. He’s got a lot of the same organizational roots that Brady has, and he's a big part of the leadership group. This decision would seem to come down more to contract demands. Chabot’s clearly slotted underneath Jake Sanderson going forward, and whether or not he’s comfortable with that in terms of role/responsibility and salary will go a long way towards whether he wants to explore another opportunity or not. He’d be a coveted option as a free agent, so a lot will come down to what he wants.

Zetterlund is too early in his time here to make an informed call, but obviously, if he continues producing like he has, it’s probably likely he doesn’t even make it to the end of his existing contract, let alone re-sign a new deal. But he does have the potential to break out at some point and could slot into a top-line scoring role that the team likes, so who knows?

Summer 2029

Linus Ullmark (35)

Now we’re getting into serious guesswork since we’re talking about where players might be at almost four years from now. Linus will have plenty of time to establish whether he’s the new Craig Anderson and be a fixture on the team past this time, or whether the team would like to move in another direction with a younger goalie who has developed internally or another external acquisition. He’s the type of teammate that would be a great permanent fixture in Ottawa should his on-ice performance warrant it.

Summer 2030

Shane Pinto (29), Dylan Cozens (29)

These two players are tied together on account of them both being centres. I would honestly be surprised if we reached this point and both of these players were still on the team. But if that ends up being the case, the decision will most likely be about which one to retain. The general consensus at this point is that Pinto is the more important player who will be valued more by the organization, and I’d tend to agree. Pinto being the everyday second-line C is an easily projectable trajectory, and the only real question is how long it takes to happen.

Summer 2031/2032

Tim Stützle (29)/Jake Sanderson (29)

I think we can all agree that both of these players will never leave and are in possession of lifetime contracts, regardless of what their actual contracts might purportedly say. Enough said.

So that's a lot for GM Steve Staios to ponder in the coming years, and whether it's re-signing key players or cutting them loose, both decisions will have equally large impacts on Ottawa's future.

By Tyler Ray
The Hockey News Ottawa

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