The Senators are a season-low three games under .500 and it's not because they're getting bad bounces.
Stop us if you've heard this one before, but the Ottawa Senators are starting to look like a team that just might be mediocre. They have not won more than three games in a row this season and haven’t lost more than three games in a row either.
They have a record well below .500.
The question is whether (to quote DJ Smith) they are the victim of “bad bounces” -- or has it just been poor play?
Let’s throw some stats at you and dig into the question.
Heading into the game in Vegas, the Senators have the 16th-best goal differential at +5. They are 9th in goals, at 3.38 goals per game, and 23rd in goals against, allowing 3.32 goals per game. This suggests good offence and bad defence, which equals mediocrity.
But maybe the Senators are just unlucky and the advanced stats suggest they are hard done by?
The Senators expected goals per game is 2.9, which is 25th in the NHL. They're actually scoring at a higher rate than that. And they have the 6th highest shooting percentage in the NHL at 9.97%. This suggests their high scoring this season might be due to a bit of shooting luck, not bad bounces.
Meanwhile, the Senators are 6th in expected goals allowed at 2.82 per game, indicating the Senators should be one of the best defensive teams in the league. Yet, in reality, they're the 23rd-worst team in the NHL in goals allowed per game.
The Senators rank 19th in CORSI percentage which is a stat that compares shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots with shots against, missed shots against, and blocked shots against at equal strength. This shows that Ottawa is in middle of the league in terms of generating chances.
Is it just bad goaltending? The answer seems to be: maybe.
The Senators currently have the third worst team save percentage in the NHL at .889. Both Joonas Korpisalo and Anton Forsberg have save percentages below .900 which puts both of them in the bottom half of the league.
And it’s not that the Senators are just giving up bad shots.
Anton Forsberg has the 3rd worst goals saved above expected at -8.7, according to Money Puck. That means Forsberg has let in nearly nine goals more than should typically be allowed. He has one of the lowest save percentages on low danger shot attempts at .950. On Friday, after the Senators went up 3-1, they were scored on 10 seconds later by a mundane wrist shot that went right through Forsberg.
Meanwhile, Korpisalo has been closer to league average goaltending. Korpisalo owns a .898 save percentage, and has given up -2.5 goals above expected, which ranks him 23rd last in the NHL. Not good, but not atrocious.
But goaltending is certainly not the end of the Sens’ problems. Look at special teams.
The Senators have a bottom 10 power play and penalty kill. The power play is scoring at a rate of 16.7%, ranking them 23rd in the NHL. The penalty kill sits 29th in the NHL, at a rate of 73.2%.
It’s almost impossible to be a good team in the NHL with poor special teams, especially when both are poor. If the Senators manage a U-turn on this sour season, it will probably involve an improvement in one or both of the special teams.
The Senators’ problem is that they have had bad goaltending, bad special teams and maybe some good bounces. Nothing in the stats indicates this team is much better than its record.
Maybe the Senators can climb out of this team hole that has them with the 6th worst points percentage in the NHL. But the harder you look, the more it makes sense that the Senators are where they are.