The Senators won't get back to the playoffs if goaltending isn't better over the final 50 games than it was in the first 32.
The Senators are feeling good about themselves after a 3–2 victory in Winnipeg. They were able to win two of the three games on their latest road trip, and now they can start looking up in the hilariously tight Eastern standings again.
The Senators now stand just two games over .500, four points out of a playoff spot, but if their goaltending over the final 50 games looks anything like it did over the first 32, the playoffs won't be in the cards.
There’s no question that Linus Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen have had some fine games and some big moments. For example, it was nice to see Ullmark win twice on the just-completed road trip. But in a conference this tight, filled with close games and three points being doled out so frequently, the overall, below-average goaltending will sink the Senators’ playoff chances.
And looking at the first two months as a body of work, below average is probably a kind description
Both Ullmark and Merilainen have goals-against averages north of three goals per game and save percentages south of .880. Ullmark has played roughly three-quarters of the games so far, makes $8.25 million per season, and currently ranks 40th in the NHL in goals-against average and 48th in save percentage.
Yes, team performance will always influence goaltender numbers, but even Ullmark’s biggest fans would have to admit that his seasonal performance so far hasn't been good enough.
It was around this time last December that Ullmark shook off a sketchy start with a personal seven-game winning streak, and the Senators and their fans would love some of that right about now.
In a low-scoring game in Winnipeg on Monday, Ullmark gave up a shaky goal on a long shot by Logan Stanley that looked like it was going to stand up as the difference in another loss. Yes, that Logan Stanley, who has scored exactly one goal in each of his last five NHL seasons.
But after Jake Sanderson forced overtime on a lucky deflection off Mark Scheifele, Tuesday morning's headlines, social media, and talk radio were a lot kinder to Ullmark than they would have been. The bounce gave Ullmark a chance to atone, and did he ever. The big Swede made a couple of massive OT saves to keep the game alive, setting the table for Brady Tkachuk’s game-winner.
That was welcome news for Sens fans, who continue to hope they get more of that, and that the Vezina Trophy–winning version of Ullmark soon shows up in Ottawa for an extended run.
Let's be honest, a goalie making $8.25 million shouldn't be the topic of a conversation that includes concerns about sketchy goals, which should only happen once in a blue moon. The dialogue should be about his top 10 numbers and how he's so steady and reliable that if he does let in the odd softy, his teammates rally to try and pick him up.
At two games above 500, the reality is the Senators have already burned through most of their margin for error. So, with 50 games to play, here's what they face.
Over the past two seasons, the eighth-place team in the Eastern Conference got in with 91 points. Right now, the Senators have 34 points with 50 games to play. Of the 100 points still available, they’ll need 57 of them to reach that 91-point mark. That means they'll require something like a 25-18-7 record the rest of the way.
But in 2022, it took 100 points to earn eighth place. If that’s the case again, and I doubt it will be, the Senators would need 66 points in their final 50 games, or something like a 29-13-8 finish. That would be a tall order
That’s not to say everything this season falls entirely on the goaltending. The Senators have a good roster, but not good depth, so they need to get and stay healthy. Or make a trade. Shane Pinto and Thomas Chabot need to return and thrive, ensuring proper slotting throughout the lineup; they need their five-on-five scoring to improve; and they need better results on the penalty kill.
If the playoff cut line stays at 91 points, the Senators might still squeak in with the status quo in goal, but it's not likely. And if that line climbs any higher, they can forget it. Regardless, if you do show up in mid-April with leaky goaltending, you won't get to May.
But on the other hand, if Ullmark or Merilainen can rediscover their mojo, as they've done before, then maybe something special will begin to simmer in Ottawa.
By Steve Warne
The Hockey News
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