Top Five Reasons For Ottawa Senators Fans To Be Optimistic About The Final Two Months
The Senators limped into the 4 Nations break with three losses in Florida, but here are five reasons why their playoff hopes are still alive and well.
The last week before the NHL's 4 Nations Faceoff went as badly as possible for the Ottawa Senators. Not only did they go 0-3, failing to pick up a single point in three games against Atlantic Division opponents, but they also lost Josh Norris and Shane Pinto to injuries.
Sounds bleak, right? While it might feel that way in the moment, Sens fans still have plenty to be optimistic about. First, the Senators sit in the first Wild Card spot, where they'll stay for the next two weeks while the NHL pauses for the international tournament.
But there are five reasons in particular—regarding their play and the schedule—that should keep fans excited about the final two months and the prospect of ending the current seven-year playoff drought.
Strength of Schedule
First of all, the Sens have the second-easiest schedule remaining in the entire league. They rank 31st in remaining strength of schedule, with their opponents averaging a points percentage of only .531%. The only team with an easier schedule on paper is Toronto, with a strength of schedule of .529%. Teams chasing Ottawa, including the Islanders, Rangers, Blue Jackets, and Red Wings, all have top-10 hardest schedules remaining. Detroit, in particular, sits at first in strength of schedule with a .586% rating.
Home-Heavy Finish
Another advantage of the schedule is that Ottawa has a very home-heavy end to the season when they return from the break. Of the remaining 26 games, the Sens will play 16 at home compared to just 10 on the road. This includes a final stretch in April, during which Ottawa will play eight of their last nine games at home. Ottawa is 16-7-2 this season at the Canadian Tire Centre, whereas they have a 13-16-2 record on the road.
Relatively Unlucky So Far
Additionally, there is reason to believe that the Sens' success can still take another step forward. PDO, which is the calculation of team save percentage + team shooting percentage, is often used to measure how "lucky" a team has been relative to the rest of the league. Currently, the Senators rank 29th in 5v5 PDO (98.26%) via MoneyPuck. This means Ottawa has managed to hold a playoff spot despite having the 4th worst combined scoring efficiency and goaltending so far.
Goal Differential
One of the most historically accurate indicators of a playoff team is whether that team finishes with a top-8 goal differential in the conference. With about two months to go in the season, Ottawa sits with the 7th-best goal differential in the Eastern Conference, and every other team below them is in the negatives. Anecdotally, this has remained consistent for much of the season, reflecting their ability to consistently hold onto a playoff spot thus far.
Getting Healthy (Maybe?)
Finally, the international break could not have come at a better time for the Sens. With injuries piling up, they should be able to use this two-week break to get healthy, with Norris and Pinto expected to return after the break—or shortly thereafter (based on the information known at this time). Also, depth players like Noah Gregor, Nick Cousins, and Jacob Bernard-Docker are still expected to return at some point this year, which will help with overall lineup slotting.
Recent results aside, there is still plenty of reason for fans to be proud of this team and optimistic that its seven-year playoff drought could end this year. Between a favorable schedule down the stretch, their solid play so far, and players returning to the lineup, it will be exciting to watch if this team can secure a playoff berth.
This article is from The Hockey News-Ottawa. For more great Ottawa Senators coverage, check out THN.com/Ottawa or leave a comment below at Senators Roundtable.