As he rebounds from offseason hip surgery, are Nick Jensen's numbers an early season blip or a troubling trend?
Small sample sizes are a fickle thing.
The reality is that shaping opinions using data that is not large enough to be statistically representative is often driven by bias – a bias that's compounded by the more passionate reactions that occur at the beginning of the season when more sets of eyes are paying attention.
So when the Ottawa Senators, an organization burdened by higher expectations following their first postseason appearance in eight years, get off to a poor start, the responses within the fan base are emotional.
Small sample sizes can be misleading.
As great as it would be for him to maintain his pace, Shane Pinto is not going to score 82 goals this season. Similarly, no one should expect Linus Ullmark's save percentage to hover around 85 percent for the remainder of the season.
With added context, however, small sample sizes can elicit concern.
In the case of the Ottawa Senators' second pairing, their struggles through the team's first seven games are concerning.
When they have been on the ice at five-on-five, the Senators have generated 43.95 percent of the shots (CF%), 42.22 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 39.57 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 43.86 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) per Evolving-Hockey.
Compared to the Senators' other two pairings, it is easy to see how disproportionately Chabot and Jensen have been getting caved using their five-on-five rate stats.
Jake Sanderson and Artem Zub: 52.36 CA/60, 24.30 SA/60 2.80 GA/60, 2.35 xGA/60
Tyler Kleven and Jordan Spence: 48.48 CA/60, 21.13 SA/60, 2.39 GA/60, 2.09 xGA/60
Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen: 59.93 CA/60, 32.71 SA/60, 3.67 GA/60, 2.89 xGA/60
The quality of competition these pairings regularly face can contribute to the numbers. These metrics carry more weight when a pairing, like the Sanderson and Zub pairing, frequently plays against the opposition's best and holds its own in terms of shot and goal suppression. In insulated minutes, the pairing of Kleven and Spence has posted the strongest metrics.
The pairing of Chabot and Jensen has unmistakably struggled, being on the wrong side of the shot and goal metrics. Not only are they on the wrong side, but they are also giving up significantly higher volume rates.
Contrasting their numbers with the rest of the league, only 10 pairings have a higher goals allowed rate (GA/60) than the Senators' second pairing, while only nine allow a higher volume of shots on goal (SA/60).
Their early-season performance stands in stark contrast to how the duo performed in the first three months of the 2024-25 campaign when they were one of the league's best.
Ahead of Jensen's return to the lineup in the Senators' last game of the preseason, I wrote the following:
"The Senators generated 54.52 percent of the shots (CF%), 54.98 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 59.62 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 54.49 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) per Natural Stat Trick.
Following Jensen's injury, the Senators' numbers with that pairing on the ice cratered relative to these first three months. In the 33 games that followed in the new year, the Senators generated 48.40 percent of the shots (CF%), 44.74 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 46.67 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 44.33 percent of the expected goals (xGF%) when Chabot and Jensen were on the ice."
If the Senators are going to take a measured step forward and move themselves closer to a contender status, they are going to need the pre-injury version of Jensen. Or, as close to it as they can possibly get.
At least in the case of Thomas Chabot, he is a player who was tied for the 17th-highest 'Wins Above Replacement' value in the entire league last season per Evolving-Hockey, and is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. It feels reasonable to assume that he will not continue to play as poorly as he has early on this season.
Regarding Jensen, it is clear that the organization never anticipated he would return so quickly after his injury.
In an interview on TSN 1200 before the start of the regular season, general manager Steve Staios touched upon Jensen's surprising recovery.
"When we looked at the acquisition of Jordan Spence, we certainly wanted to add depth to our right side," the general manager acknowledged. "We've said from day one, it is a competition. The more that I can provide as a manager to the players and coaches, the more it elevates play.
"I don't think anybody expected Nick Jensen to be back and healthy at this time as well. There will be an opportunity as the season goes along. Here, we do have a belief in (Spence). We like the player. But certainly at this point in time, there's a competition here, and we have some depth."
The unflattering truth is that Jensen's play more closely resembles what it was post-injury.
According to the NHL's Edge data, which tracks things like shot data, skating speed and zone time, Jensen finished the 2024-25 season with the following rankings:
- 78th percentile in max skating speed (22.40 mph)
- 62nd percentile in 22+ mph bursts
- 78th percentile in 20-22 mph bursts
- 88th percentile in 18-20 mph bursts
In seven games this season, here are Jensen's rankings:
- <50th percentile in max skating speed (20.34 mph)
- <50th percentile in 22+ mph bursts
- 69th percentile in 20-22 mph bursts
- 68th percentile in 18-20 mph bursts
Those are diminished speeds, but if there is an encouraging beacon of optimism, it rests in the fact that this is a small sample size of data, and Jensen still ranks favourably in the percentage of speed bursts between 18 and 22 mph. Considering the Senators' expectations for when Jensen would return, it is possible that, despite being pain-free, it will take time for him to regain his form.
The concern is that this could be his new norm.
According to HockeyViz.com, Jensen's isolated impacts have been abysmal.
Ideally, Jensen continues to progress in his recovery and eventually gets back to where he was previously. There may even be a solution where load management strategies help get him there quicker. If the gains are relatively modest, I believe Jensen has the veteran guile to adjust and survive. The question, however, is whether that level will be good enough to bolster the second pairing and help the Senators make a push for the postseason.
Head coach Travis Green believes the pairing of Chabot and Jensen took a positive step during the Senators' Tuesday night game.
"(They've been okay)," he stated when assessing their overall play this season. "They have been average through the first seven games. They were 47% (in terms of the percentage of on-ice expected goals). I might not be exact on that. I thought Tuesday night was a big step in the right direction."
Green emphasized that the solution was not complicated. The pairing just had to play better.
At a time when most of the conversations regarding the Senators' blue line are centred on whether Jordan Spence or Nik Matinpalo deserves to dress, it may be worth considering playing both at the expense of Nick Jensen.
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Senators Walk The Early Season Fine Line Between Disaster And Success
Tkachuk Has Successful Thumb Surgery And Will Miss 6-8 Weeks
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