With the NHL trade deadline looming, GM Steve Staios has to decide if his young roster is flawed or just still needs more time.
The Ottawa Senators aren't an easy team to figure out.
Right now, the fan base is torn, splayed out on a spectrum between "the boys are starting to figure it out" and "bring on another rebuild."
With the trade deadline two and a half weeks away, Senators GM Steve Staios – the only evaluator who matters – is probably asking himself some tough questions about this team.
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Based on his background, we can make some educated guesses at what Staios may not like about his current roster, a roster he inherited from someone else.
Staios was a hard-working, hard-nosed, physical, defensive defenceman, who broke into the NHL in the mid-90s and played over 1000 games. When that was your brand as a player, it would surely seep into the kind of hockey team you prefer to build, wouldn't it?
We're betting that Staios wants to make changes to bring in:
More physical edge and feistiness
When Nathan MacKinnon personally pounded the Senators for four goals in December, he actually said, "Tonight was easy."
That's humbling.
Nothing makes an opponent feel more confident than facing an evening of stick checks and light bumps. Brady Tkachuk can "drag guys into the fight" all he wants. It doesn't mean they're willing or able when they get there.
The Sens' roster needs a little more physicality and nastiness.
Another experienced veteran or two
When they're coming up, NHL rookies are supposed to be insulated and learn the ropes from veterans and coaches who've been around. Thanks to the tear down, most of the Sens' young core didn't get that. They were handed everything right away. As they made mistakes, they still got all the big important minutes without noticeable consequences. Then, before some of them ever really embraced (or understood) their role in critical team defensive tactics, they were given massive long-term contracts for the individual things they do well.
Which brings us to...
Players Who Defend Well
This is a team that's very good and will always play with urgency...when they have the puck.
But without the puck, they're too often not doing what needs doing. Most of the time, that's either a case of cheating and leaving the zone early; being mentally checked out; or good old fashioned laziness.
That might be in the form of being late to decide it's time to back check; a line change where you slowly coast to the bench for 50 feet (a pet peeve of mine); or standing and watching the puck in D zone coverage instead of locating and picking up your man.
In a perfect world, you're finding players who have all three of the above assets. In a nutshell, Steve Staios probably wouldn't mind finding a 30-year-old version of Steve Staios
Possibly a goalie
Craig Anderson was the team's last consistent goalie, and he was acquired in the Bryan Murray era.
Since the rebuild began, the team has been a defensive gong show so maybe no goalie would have thrived here. Just look at goalie Anthony Stolarz. His stats were complete junk last year but amazing this year. That little shift from 32nd place Anaheim to 2nd place Florida sort of helps a tendy out.
But even with that in mind, identifying talent in goal (hello, Matt Murray) still didn't appear to be a particular strength for the previous regime. I think it's reasonable to wonder if, based on recent history (and the vile 2023-24 stats), if the old guard might have whiffed again on the current crew.
How will Staios pay for this?
Staios needs more hard skill and can afford to move some soft skill to pay for it. He has enough young, offensively-skilled, non-physical players throughout the lineup, including the blue line, that he can get away with sacrificing a couple of them.
It's likely that Vladimir Tarasenko and Dominik Kubalik, both UFAs this summer, are on the block. Freeing up their $7.5 million will help. If Tarasenko brings back a 2024 first round draft pick, the Sens would then have three to chose from, so they could flip one of those too.
But over the next seven months, if not at the deadline, I'm betting that Staios pulls down one or two of the core players off the roster to really address the above deficiencies.
You need soft skill and hard skill, offence and defence, but it all has to be balanced. Right now, it just isn't.