
Ullmark has won six games in a row, stopping 173 of 178 shots on goal for a .972 save percentage.
-If they keep playing this way, the results will eventually improve. Moral victories. Their luck has to improve, and the bad bounces will even out over time. Trust the process.
Positive mantras were thrown around more often during the season's first quarter than a false Brady Tkachuk trade rumour.
Given the Senators' historical struggles during the month of November, it was easy to be cynical about the organization's chances of turning around their season. That feeling permeated social media, often drawing dismissive parallels between this team and its previous iterations.
Despite consternation regarding the possibility of another disappointing start submarining the team's chances of reaching the postseason, it never felt like the negativity had reached the players.
There were moments, of course.
Following the team's 4-3 loss to the Vancouver Canucks, you could hear a pin drop in the dressing room as the gravity of dropping a fifth consecutive game weighed heavily.
Fortunately, with the exception of that moment, the players' disposition has been even-keeled. Their captain has repeatedly expressed a belief in the talent here. Having had the opportunity this season to watch the players and talk to them in the dressing room, I don't feel like their disposition has changed.
They all sensed they were close, but it felt like they needed a moment: an event for the momentum to shift and allow these players to gain confidence and a bit of swagger.
Enter Linus Ullmark.
It was a frustrating first few months for the goaltender. After stymying the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers in the Senators' home opener, Ullmark suffered some kind of strain in the second game of the season. The injury would force him to miss four games, but when he did return, he struggled through his next 13 appearances.
His metrics through these 15 appearances were hardly reflective of his career norms.
Ullmark began his Senators career with a 5-7-2 record, a 3.07 goals against average, and an .887 save percentage. His goals saved above expected (GSAx) was -4.02. In other words, based off Evolving-Hockey's statistical model that weighs the quality of shots goaltenders face, Ullmark allowed four more goals than he should have.
For a goaltender who brandishes a career save percentage of .918, his start to the season was pedestrian.
Chalk it up to the first Ottawa snowfall that his children, Harry and Lily, have been begging for. Credit a return to health or the inevitable adjustments that occur on and off the ice for a goaltender beginning a new chapter in his career. Whatever the case, Ullmark has been electric in his last six starts.
The Swedish goaltender has won every one of these starts, stopping 173 of 178 shots on goal to the tune of a .972 save percentage. His goals against average during this span is 0.83, and in every one of these games, he has carried a shutout going into the third period. After allowing 4.02 more goals than he should have based on Evolving-Hockey's GSAx metric, Ullmark stopped 10.87 expected goals.
It was reasonable to expect Ullmark's numbers to normalize over time, but this heater was welcomed. His play has allowed the Senators to capture valuable points and climb back into the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Eventually, his play will regress the other way. However, should he sustain this level for a bit longer, it should afford the organization more opportunities to capture points and build a larger cushion over its Eastern Conference competitors.
One of the ways the Senators can cushion that regression is to get improvement elsewhere on the roster. Fortunately, there is ample room for that. David Perron has barely played this season, but he has played well when he has. He has been held pointless in nine games, but his (and his line's) underlying numbers have been strong. Upon his return, he should bolster the Senators' depth, push others down the lineup, and ideally, allow players like Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio to benefit and be more productive.
Another obvious candidate for regression is Jake Sanderson.
After a sterling training camp and preseason, the fleet-footed defenceman's game has not approached last season's levels. In saying that, it's not like there aren't reasons for that.
His defensive partner, Artem Zub, was felled with a concussion after a violent Tanner Jeannot hit in the opening minutes of the Senators' third game of the season. The injury forced him to miss nine games, but he returned in the first week of November. Eight games later, he sustained a foot fracture while blocking a shot.
In Zub's absence, Travis Green and the coaching staff have elected to give the veteran Travis Hamonic Zub's top-four minutes.
The results have, predictably, left something to be desired.
In the almost 300 five-on-five minutes that Sanderson and Hamonic have played together, the Senators have generated 48.00 percent of the shots (CF%), 49.95 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 45.43 percent of the expected goals (xGF%), and a woeful 23.00 percent of the actual goals (GF%).
It is no fault of Hamonic's that he has been thrust up the lineup and put in a spot he is ill-suited for at this stage of his career. If anything, it reflects on the organization's concerns with its youth and maturity. Hamonic's presence speaks to the need for a veteran presence because of these concerns.
When the team is playing well but losing games because of untimely bounces and poor goaltending, it can weigh on a group, especially a young one. In the past, under the previous regime, the Senators' structure and discipline would break down in the face of adversity. They would chase games and scores rather than continue to play a disciplined and structured game. Veterans can be relied on to reinstill that message, but something has to give with Hamonic at some point.
He has been too ineffective to be relied upon for his role. Whether that means Jacob Bernard-Docker should get an opportunity or the Senators should simply ride it out until Zub returns from his foot fracture, remains to be seen.
It reflects an unwillingness to break up a third pairing that has played pretty well. Philosophically, it certainly looks like the coaching staff prefers using its best defenceman to shoulder the burden of playing with the blue line's weakest component in hopes Sanderson's talent can carry his partner to respectable results.
It is a sizable ask, but the hope is that it will not last much longer.