We submit two big reasons why Forsberg could be in for a much better season in 2024-25.
It is hardly a stretch to suggest that the Ottawa Senators' goaltending in 2023-24 was a massive letdown.
In hindsight, it was naive to believe in a goaltending tandem in which the team's most prominent offseason signing, Joonas Korpisalo, entered the year having only one season in his eight-year career with a save percentage higher than .915.
His backup, Anton Forsberg, had a challenging predicament of his own. The Swede was coming off a significant double-knee injury that somehow allowed him to elude surgery. Forsberg arrived in camp ready to go, but like Korpisalo, the results were lousy.
The Senators finished 31st out of the 32 NHL clubs in all situations save percentage. Only the Philadelphia Flyers had a lower save percentage (88.40) than Ottawa's 88.46.
Evolving Hockey's goals saved above expected' (GSAx) metric relies on expected goals, which measure the probability of a shot resulting in a goal based on shot quality factors (location, player, etc.).
This GSAx is a measure that takes the number of expected goals a goaltender lets in and subtracts the actual number of goals a goalie allows. If the difference is positive, the goaltender has outperformed, allowing fewer goals than he should have. If his GSAx is negative, the opposite is true. He allowed more goals than he should have.
Of the 96 goaltenders who played enough minutes to qualify, Korpisalo finished dead last with a -13.60 GSAx. Forsberg was not much better, with the league's 18th-worst mark (-3.69 GSAx).
Replacing Korpisalo with Linus Ullmark, one of the league's most consistent goaltenders over the past six seasons, is a massive swing in the right direction. Only 11 goaltenders during this span have stopped more expected goals than Ullmark.
However, more consideration of what a healthy Forsberg means is warranted.
A tweet by Justin Bourne during the Stanley Cup playoffs regarding Connor Brown's skating improvement helps demonstrate that it may take players lengthy periods of time to recover fully.
Recency bias often clouds contextual reasons for a player's struggles, which holds true for Forsberg. Many people forget how good he was before his injury. In the parts of the three seasons that Forsberg played for the Senators before his injury, he had a GSAx of 14.35. Only 16 goaltenders accumulated a higher number of goals saved than Forsberg.
Health permitting, he is a competent goaltender who can pair with Ullmark to turn a positional weakness into a strength. He also enters 2024-25 in the last year of his contract, so Forsberg has all the financial motivations to turn in a strong season.