Last summer's blockbuster trade bringing Erik Karlsson to Pittsburgh has been source of contention for fans and media
One year ago today, Pittsburgh Penguins general manager and president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas made one of the biggest trades in franchise history, acquiring reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson from the San Jose Sharks.
We revisited the details of the trade - as well as the winners and losers in the aftermath - earlier today. But oftentimes lost in the "facts" of the trade are reactionary takes, hindsight biases, and discourse around the value of mid-late first round picks.
It's time to put narratives to bed and focus on the facts. And the facts are that, in almost every way on paper and in practice, this still stands as a great trade for the Penguins - and, at the time, fans resoundingly agreed:
Even taking a quick look at the replies to the original trade announcement, nearly all of Pittsburgh was elated: Dubas had managed to not only get rid of four bad contracts with some term - including Jeff Petry, Jan Rutta, and Mikael Granlund, all of whom produced meager results for the Penguins and combined for $14 million against the cap - but also gain $3 million in cap space when all was said and done.
The only positive asset Dubas surrendered was a 2024 first round pick, which, alone, doesn't typically net a generational, Norris-winning defenseman along with extra cap space and the expulsion of multiple bad contracts.
When you peel back all of the discourse surrounding the results of the Penguins' 2023-24 campaign - and of Karlsson's generally positive but "mixed bag" first season with his new team - this is a trade that any GM anywhere on any day of the week would make in a heartbeat if they are trying to win hockey games.
And at the juncture the Penguins found themselves at last summer, that kind of move made sense. They were coming off of their first postseason miss in 17 years, still confident they could be a playoff contender if they could simply generate more offense and put more pucks in the net with regularity. The move was made to help them accomplish that.
As mentioned previously, the results were a mixed bag. The power play did not improve in the slightest for a multitude of reasons, and the Penguins were a comically awful finishing team as they had been for a year or two prior. And even if Karlsson didn't elevate the team to the somewhat unrealistic heights that were expected - he produced 11 goals and 56 points, both top marks for Penguins' defensemen in 2023-24, but far below his output from one season prior - he largely contributed to the team's offensive attack.
Per Moneypuck, Karlsson blew all other Penguins' defensemen out of the water with a 60.9 percent on-ice expected goals share (xGF%), with the next-closest defensive teammate being oft-partner Marcus Pettersson at 49.3 percent. He also led all Penguins defensemen in on-ice expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 2.88. The only other defenseman in the 2-range was P.O Joseph (2.91), while everyone else was at 3-plus.
But numbers aside, the bottom line is this: The bare-bones of the trade itself, both conceptually and situationally, was a huge win for the Penguins. Regardless of what fans and media think the team should have done last summer, the organization's actual goal was to remain competitive without mortgaging the team's future.
One can argue the merits of trading first-round picks. The odds of mid-late first-rounders panning out as bona fide NHL stars is pretty low, but even if that pick - eventually traded by the Sharks to Buffalo, who used it to draft center Konsta Helenius - plays as an NHL regular, there is no GM in the world who wouldn't have surrendered it for a chance to add one of the best defensemen of the cap era coming off a 101-point campaign.
It remains to be seen what kind of long-term impact the Karlsson trade will have on the Penguins' future. It's reasonable to expect more from him next season, and it's reasonable to expect he will deliver. It's also fair to acknowledge that the Penguins will be responsible for $10 million of his total cap hit for three more years, which may not bode well for them trying to add young talent with term.
But if the Penguins are still trying to compete now, he helps. If they aren't, his cap hit doesn't matter in the slightest, and he will still have value in the trade market if they want to explore that option.
Either way, this was a phenomenal trade the day it happened, and - given what contracts the Penguins would still be responsible for otherwise - that still rings true. But perhaps the best thing for everyone in this situation is to simply move on from it, sit back, and see how everything plays out in 2023-24.
Because - to be honest - I think we're all tired of talking about it.