Maple Leafs vs Lightning: Who Has The Edge?

There’s one thing we know for sure, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning will face each other in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the second straight season. If you’ve been here a while, you know we’ve had an idea since January that this rematch was destined to happen. 

The Lightning won the series in seven games last year, and later went on to make a Stanley Cup Final appearance for the third consecutive season.

The Maple Leafs held the lead for the entirety of the series, before losing Game 6 in Tampa and Game 7 at home. It was the fifth straight season in which the Maple Leafs lost a series-deciding game in the first round.

But that was then and this is now.

There are different ways to look at this matchup. I went over to the other side and did the analysis so you don’t have to. Let’s start with the Lightning.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning have struggled with consistency this season, surprising Jon Cooper last week after giving up 19 goals on their final road trip of the year. In the week prior, Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 99 of 100 shots and added two more shutouts to his resume. They know the offense will come if they take care of the defensive zone first. "The chances we've given up on rushes and things like that, when you start cutting those out, Vas usually takes care of the rest,” said Jon Cooper.

This season has been a year of finding a new identity in Tampa. After losing veteran defenseman Ryan McDonagh at the end of last season, the Lightning have had to regroup on defense and in the locker room. Most of their core players, the ones you know and love from that back-to-back Stanley Cup group, are still with the organization. They have a few new editions that are starting to find their way as well.

Tampa will be without forward Tanner Jeannot for a bit. They acquired Jeannot at the trade deadline from Nashville and he was starting to find his way on the ice. Coach Jon Cooper hasn’t ruled him out for the entirety of the playoffs, but he's confirmed to be out for the start of the series vs the Leafs. He's had 26 hits in his last six games including an 8-hit game against the Capitals. The physicality provided by Jeannot would give them an edge over Toronto. In Monday’s practice, Mikey Eyssimont skated on the Lightning’s third line with Ross Colton and Anthony Cirelli. 

“He was a big part of this team. We got him for a reason. He’s a great player, a great teammate, a great guy in the locker room, so it’s unfortunate. It sucks, but we’ve got good guys in here who kind of have that next step mentality. So someone else is gonna have to step up and fill the role,” said Colton

With experience comes confidence and this core still has it. The Lightning are comfortable starting a playoff series on the road, which they will do in this round. They are comfortable in who they are as veteran players and they understand how to accomplish what they want to accomplish, which is making a fourth consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance. When they're in a good place mentally, they play championship hockey.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto has improved since last season, but it can’t go without saying that the Maple Leafs haven't won a playoff series since 2004.

The addition of Ryan O'Reilly could bode well for them. O’Reilly won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player of the playoffs when the Blues won the Cup in 2019, and he's one of the top two-way centers in the game.

With O'Reilly joining Auston Matthews and John Tavares, the Maple Leafs match up pretty well against Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos and Anthony Cirelli down the middle. Toronto has been testing out different power play units to see if they can spread talent around the ice ahead of the playoffs.

Both teams line up pretty evenly on power play percentage and penalty kill.

Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe wanted a stronger fourth line after consecutive years of playoff disappointment. He tested different looks out on the best team in the league last Thursday, when they played the Boston Bruins. Toronto fell 2-1 in overtime.

Their shortcomings came in their inability to score in that game. Toronto's top offensive weapons were held off the scoresheet.

I’ll let you come to your own conclusion on this one Bolts fans, but if the Lightning can play like the physical defensive group that has made them so successful in past years, mixed with a goalie advantage in Andrei Vasilevskiy and the unmatched experience of their core group, they’ll have an edge over Toronto. Staying in a good place mentally is key for this team.

They will get a preview of Toronto's level of play on Tuesday night at Amalie Arena. These last regular season games do matter in terms of gaining confidence and building momentum. Look for the Lightning to have that mindset on Tuesday.