With the NHL saying the Players’ Association’s outstanding balance might be paid off earlier than expected, the salary cap could go up as much as $4.5 million. Will it help the Leafs?
The NHL held a Board of Governors meeting in New York on Tuesday to discuss many topics, including the most up-to-date projections of the salary cap in future years.
It appears there is good news on that front.
NHL commissioner Gary Bettman told reporters that the nearly $1.1 billion debt owed stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic might be paid in full by the end of the fiscal year. If that happens, the salary cap could see an increase in the range of “$4 or $4.5 million” for the 2023-24 season.
Should the debt not be paid off, an increase of $1 million is expected.
While that is certainly good news for NHL general managers that some added cap breathing room could be coming, what will that mean for the Toronto Maple Leafs and their future plans?
According to Puckpedia.com, the Maple Leafs have just 13 roster players committed for 2023-24 at cap hit of $69,814,783.
A salary cap increase in the range of $1 to $4.5 million means the Leafs could have between $12,685,217 and $16,185,217 remaining to sign an additional seven to ten players. That should help the Leafs in their quest to fill out their roster. But it could come with some downsides, too.
Potential increase in the cost of re-signing Auston Matthews
Should the salary cap go up more significantly than expected, that might drive up Auston Matthews’ asking price to a number larger than perhaps might have been expected in the current flat-cap era. After scoring 60 goals in 2021-22 and winning the Hart Trophy, more space might mean a bigger ask in terms of cap-hit percentage.
Of course, all of this is assuming he’s open to signing an extension when the window to do so opens on July 1, 2023. Matthews becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2024.
More money for the middle class and less hometown discount players
The NHL’s current minimum salary is $750,000 and is set to increase to $775,000 beginning in 2023-24. In addition to that, a big salary cap increase could also mean more money for mid-range players that would otherwise be forced to either take a minimum contract, or worse, show up to a training camp on a professional tryout. There will still be those players who will have to go that route, but a 5 per cent increase in the salary cap should result in fewer of them.
Michael Bunting
Speaking of hometown discounts, Bunting signed a two-year, $1.9 million deal in the summer of 2021 and admitted he left money on the table to play in Toronto. A free agent at the end of this season, there were reports that an eight-year deal might make sense for the Scarborough native. But with news that the salary cap might go up more than expected, how do you determine a fair number with such a wide range? Since that number won’t be known until closer to the end of the fiscal year (NHL usually sets the cap number in mid-June), it might be harder to determine right now a fair number.
Less young talent available as non-qualified unrestricted free agents
The last couple of years has seen many teams run out of cap space and shift their priorities. There was a growing number of players that would normally be restricted free agents go unqualified by the retaining team, for fear that they wouldn’t be able to afford the award handed out if the talent filed for arbitration.
The Leafs have done this a couple of times. Nick Ritchie and Ondrej Kase joined the Leafs in the summer of 2021 after they weren’t tendered qualifying offers by the Boston Bruins. The Leafs let Kase go the following season when they didn’t tender him a qualifying offer. Toronto was able to get Ilya Samsonov on a one-year, $1.8 million contract after the Washington Capitals elected to let the NHL first-round goaltending talent walk away.
One week before letting Samsonov walk, Capitals GM Brian McLellan told reporters that they intended to tender Samsonov a qualifying offer. Even though the club moved on by signing Darcy Kuemper to a five-year, $26.25 million contract in free agency, more cap space could have prevented the Capitals from losing an asset for nothing.
So far that has been a big win for the Maple Leafs. Since Matt Murray is out four weeks with an adductor injury, and Samsonov is expected to carry the load in goal for the time being.
More bad than good
It goes without saying that more cap space for all teams will help most teams in the NHL, especially for those that are right up against the current limit. Players already under contract are already winning since escrow will be further cut from 10 percent this season to six percent in 2023-24, resulting in a before-tax income increase of approximately 4.44 percent on average.
Of course, inflation has been so red hot in the United States and Canada that any increases could just be nominal and that the league was destined to arrive at this destination sooner rather than later. But that’s for another article.