Marner will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2024-25 season as he completes the final year of a six-year, $65.4 million contract.
The Mitch Marner discourse has been a frenzy jogging back to the Toronto Maple Leafs’ elimination from the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs. There was an outcry from fans following the loss after Marner produced just three points (1G, 2A) in seven games, and yet another playoff disappointment that the two parties needed to go their separate ways. Heck, there were even trade talks throughout the summer.
Where do we stand now?
Playing on the final year of a six-year, $65.4 million contract, Marner is set to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2024-25 season – if no deal is met. The reality of the situation is by the end of this, the Leafs and Marner will have to make a decision: stay or go? Without question, this will likely be Marner’s biggest payday in his NHL career, for a player who has already earned $68 million in the NHL by the age of 27 years old.
On Real Kyper and Bourne on Friday, Nick Kypreos identified that money may not be the top priority for the star forward, considering the future of what an eight–year deal means for Marner.
“There are other factors that come into play in this whole dynamic,” Kypreos said. “As we know, Mitch has taken a lot of heat here. The question is, does he set himself up for that type of behavior to continue? Is he comfortable with it? I think that can play a factor.”
Kypreos also highlighted the uncertainty surrounding Marner’s approach to contract negotiations, noting that while the Maple Leafs appear willing to meet his high price tag, Marner’s camp seems inclined to take a cautious, wait-and-see approach until the season unfolds.
“I’m not so sure that Mitch Marner is in a race to go and get a contract right now,” Kypreos explained. “There are two sides to this. It’s not Mitch Marner saying, ‘I have a number, hit it and I’ll sign.’ I think it’s important but I don’t know if I’d have it at the top of my list.”
The potential impact of Marner’s personal life and his growing family has also been highlighted as a significant factor in the decision-making process.
“You don’t know what you’re dealing with these guys going into their last years, what’s important, where is the pecking order of money, and family, right? Mitch is starting a family. Do I want my kids to be in an environment eventually if I stay for another eight years to grow up to kids in junior kindergarten or senior kindergarten going, your Dad screwed us with that contract. I don’t know, we’ll have to wait and see.”
Kypreos expanded on this in his Toronto Star column, speculating that Marner’s next contract could fall in the $13-14 million range annually—on par with Leon Draisaitl’s anticipated new deal. With the NHL’s salary cap projected to rise beyond $100 million in the coming seasons, Marner could be poised to secure a record-breaking payday, either in Toronto or elsewhere.
“If Marner really wants to stay and can manage the noise around him, he can sign a contract tomorrow for either north or south of $13 million. But if he finds the toxicity within Leafs Nation that we see play out regularly to be too much to bare, he will walk away on July 1,” Kypreos wrote.
Despite the lack of postseason success, it’s evident that teams will line up to pay Marner top dollar – one of the 32 teams will. As Marner continues to navigate this season, the decision may come down to more than just money. With $68 million already earned in his career, it seems that Marner may heavily weigh lifestyle and his ability to handle the intense scrutiny that comes with playing in Toronto.
This season, Marner has a team-high 29 points (9G, 20A) in 20 games, taking on a heavy workload with the recent absence of Auston Matthews. In nine seasons with the club, Marner has 203 goals, 465 assists, and 668 points.