The 2025 Offseason is already underway for the Vancouver Canucks, and even if this season (like every other full season since 2014-15) was shrouded by disappointment, one thing has been made abundantly clear:

This is the most important offseason for the Canucks in the last decade. 

A new coach, a top 6 forward group that needs a rehaul, a faltering superstar center, and a franchise defenseman who might walk to free agency in 24 months. These are all major things to take into consideration when assessing the Vancouver Canucks.

With that being said, General Manager Patrick Allvin and President of Hockey Operations Jim Rutherford have been consistent in their messaging that they believe that this year was a temporary setback. Regardless of any fan's opinion on what direction this team should go, a rebuild is NOT on the table for this franchise. 

Now, with the house cleaning out of the way, let's discuss how the Canucks top 6 can jump back into contender status this season. First, let's start with the $11.6M Elephant in the room. 

Elias Pettersson - The Gamble Is Worth it

Elias Pettersson. Former 100 Point Scorer, SHL Rookie of the Year, SHL Regular Season MVP, SHL Playoff MVP, 4x NHL All Star, 2x Top 20 in Hart Voting, Calder Trophy Winner, 8th in Selke Voting in 22-23, Top 10 in Puck Battles Won amongst forwards up until his injury, and since his entry into the league, has been the Canucks best shot blocker, and 2nd best hitter amongst forwards.

  Seems like the type of center that can lead a franchise to the promise land, doesn't it?

  Well, if your only experience watching Elias Pettersson was during the 2024-25' season, you'd be forgiven for thinking every accolade and statistic posted above was false. Once considered as the future captain of the Vancouver Canucks - a player that was once thought of as a potential Hart Trophy and Selke Candidate, Elias Pettersson experienced the toughest season of his NHL career, and potentially his professional hockey career.
64 games, 15 goals, 30 assists, for 45 points and a minus 10. All of these marks are career lows for Pettersson in a full 82 game schedule, and are hardly acceptable for the player with the 5th highest cap hit of 2024-25, at $11,600,000.

"He's going to win one [Hart Trophy], sooner rather than later"

- Elliotte Friedman, on Elias Pettersson's Hart Trophy Chances, Jan 12, 2021

So, what went wrong with Elias Pettersson this season?

Well, first off, this didn't start this season. This goes back to February 2024. On February 1st, 2024, Elias Pettersson sat 8th in NHL scoring with 64 points in 49 games. 2nd on the Canucks, 3 points behind JT Miller and 2 in front of current Canucks Captain Quinn Hughes.

Pettersson was well on track to eclipse 100 points for back to back seasons, which also would have meant he would have been the first Canuck since Pavel Bure in 1992-93/1993-94 and the first Swedish NHL player to ever accomplish that feat. His 107 point pace would have placed him behind only Henrik Sedin's 2009-10 season for the best in Franchise History.

So how did Elias finish the season? 33 Games. 8 goals, and 14 assists for 22 points. A 54 point pace. In the playoffs? 1 goal, 6 assists, for 7 points in 13 games. 

When asked about his lack of production, Elias Pettersson revealed to the media that he had been dealing with knee tendonitis. 

 “I’ve been playing with a bad knee since January. It’s been a nagging injury, so the longer it went, the more pain I felt.... It just needs time … time to heal, time to rest, and get back home."

- Elias Pettersson, May 23rd 2024 during a Canucks Season Ending Press Conference

 Upon arrival to training camp, Elias had stated that he had to train around his knee injury, and described his offseason training as "a little different". Unfortunately for Pettersson, his struggles persisted. Jim Rutherford and Patrick Allvin have come out after this season and said that Pettersson did indeed deal with an injury that prevented proper training, but this has led to more fan irritation and questions more than anything. 

So why is Elias Pettersson worth the gamble? Well, the answer is simple: 

The Vancouver Canucks will not get proper value back in any Elias Pettersson trade, and if their goal is to keep Quinn Hughes, they don't have the time to try and find a "Plan B" that has a realistic chance of succeeding. Teams do not win trades in which they move franchise-altering pieces. Calgary with Matthew Tkachuk, and Buffalo with Jack Eichel are great examples of teams that traded away franchise pieces and have mellowed in perpetual mediocrity ever since.  

There has been 0 players in NHL history with a track record that Elias Pettersson has that have fallen off this steeply permanently. Historical indicators all point towards a Pettersson resurgence. 

If the Canucks want to win now, the biggest individual acquisition that could be made is getting Prime Petey back. So now the question is, how can the Canucks get Elias Pettersson back to undisputed superstar status? 

The Forwards - Ceiling >>> Floor

Under Head Coach Rick Tocchet, the Canucks were very big on structure, and defensively it certainly paid off. According to Moneypuck.com, the Vancouver Canucks ranked 7th and 4th (in 23-24 & 24-25 respectively) in expected goals against (xGA) during the 2 full seasons he was at the helm. The defense was never the issue with the Canucks under Tocchet.

However, during those same seasons, the Canucks ranked 17th and 31st in expected goals for (xGF)

Let me make this clear - Rick Tocchet is a good hockey man. He's a great assistant coach. However, his track record as an NHL Head Coach is spotty at best.

One non-COVID Bubble playoff appearance, and 1 series win against Nashville. 

Against Nashville, Vancouver's obvious offensive flaws were exposed when they set the NHL record for fewest shots through the first 4 games of a 7 game series (71, or ~18 per game). In game 3, a 2-1 win where JT Miller and Brock Boeser both scored Powerplay Goals, the Canucks registered 12 shots, setting a team record for fewest shots in a playoff game. For context, when the Canucks beat the Dallas Stars in game 1 of round 1 in the 2007 playoffs, Roberto Luongo made 72 saves. 

To put it simply: The Canucks offense is inadequate at best, and inept at worst. 

Upon the conclusion of their series against Edmonton, a 7 game second-round series that saw everything from tag team violence to multiple last-minute game-winning goals, Rick Tocchet reflected on the team's offense, stating:

“It comes from execution and getting your defencemen into the rush.... We have to be better off the rush and it’s another thing we have to look at.”

- Rick Tocchet on his club's lack of rush offense during the 2024 playoffs

 The Canucks followed this up by having the 2nd worst Possession Entry % (the percentage of non-dump-in zone entries, where a player has possession of the puck), and the 5th least rush shots in the league. Not great, eh?

Rick Tocchet's offensive systems have always been relatively straightforward. Possess the puck, get bodies in front, and take a shot. The issue with his systems is despite his consistent messaging through the media of wanting his players to take the puck to the middle of the ice, historical numbers suggest Tocchet's offensive system is middling at best, and bad at worst. In fact, other than 23-24 where the Canucks finished 7th in xGF%, Rick Tocchet coached teams have been consistently bad. 

 This becomes an issue once you take into consideration that the Canucks best remaining players over the last 5 seasons (Pettersson and Hughes) are both Rush Offense Experts. 

Quinn Hughes dominates the NZ and OZ, whether on the cycle or the rush. He is one of the best players in the NHL as a result, and Tocchet's system actually helped his goal totals explode. As the team with the highest rate of point shots in the NHL, Hughes was able to convert his frequent shot attempts into goals, and when that didn't work, his point shots often became rebounds for the Dakota Joshua, Kiefer Sherwood, and Nils Hoglander's of the world. 

With Pettersson on the other hand? His best talents offensively are exposing a team's anxiety off the rush. Before February 2024, if a team made a mistake in defending the rush, Elias Pettersson was going to pick them apart. During Pettersson's 102-point season in 2022-23, he produced more off the rush than any other Canuck, both in terms of actual numbers and on a relative basis (46 points off the rush. 

Another issue with the Canucks offensive structure was their lack of east-west passing. The Canucks were 24th and 27th in Cross Slot and Centre Lane passes, respectively.

During Pettersson's 102-point season, Elias Pettersson scored 68, or 66.6% of his points within 3 seconds of some sort of east-west movement. So what do the Canucks have to do? Open up the coffers and let their franchise center play the way that allows him to succeed. 

Now, with the Canucks current top 6 forward group, this is easier said than done.

When you look at the Canucks top 6, there are some glaring holes. Second Line Center is one, and a First Line Winger would be the most glaring. Losing JT Miller, and (more than likely) Brock Boeser leaves sizable gaps between the team's top forward and the rest of the pack. Even the most diehard Canucks fan would admit that this team currently has three true top 6 forwards. Jake Debrusk, Elias Pettersson, and Conor Garland are the only bona fide top 6 forwards on this roster. 

Now, the potential for more is there. Nils Hoglander was the Canucks best forward analytically from the turn of the new year and also put up 24 goals a year ago. Kiefer Sherwood just put up 20 goals, although to expect any more out of him would be a level of greed not seen since Eve ate the forbidden fruit. 

Jonathan Lekkerimaki had a fantastic rookie season, but has been in the press box for Abbotsford's AHL Calder Cup run for 3 games now, and fans have begun speculating whether or not he could be the main piece in a trade for the 2nd line center that Vancouver so desperately needs.

So, who should the Canucks target? Well, let me tell you who they shouldn't target:

Anyone who doesn't have some molecule of risk attached to them. 

If the Canucks want to truly contend and prove to Quinn Hughes, the Western Conference, and the NHL that they've truly turned the corner, then they need to swing for the fences. 

The Jack Roslevic's, Gustav Nyqvist's, and Mason Appleton's of the world are your typical filler pieces. These are middle 6 NHL'ers who have a baseline of production that you expect them to have every night. These are players that will rarely have a truly bad game, but will also rarely have a game where they break through and win a game for their team singlehandedly.

These are players that every team needs, but the Canucks already have a plethora of them.

Drew O Connor, Teddy Blueger, Dakota Joshua, and Kiefer Sherwood are all players that fans know what to expect from when healthy. 

The Canucks cannot afford to be safe. Fans and media alike have spent an entire season seeing what happens when a team tries to play it safe. One of the biggest complaints about Rick Tocchet, when he was Head Coach, was that people would often say "He doesn't coach to win, he coaches not to lose", which has some validity. 24.7% of Tocchet's losses as an NHL Head Coach have come beyond 60 minutes. As Canucks Head Coach, that number was 29.34%.

If the Canucks are truly serious about contending and also finding a way to keep Quinn Hughes, then management and coaching alike both have a responsibility to NOT play it safe. 

Risky Business - Top 6 Targets For Vancouver

1 - C- Marco Rossi, Minnesota Wild, 24 Years Old

If you looked at Marco Rossi's size, you'd be right to be skeptical about his ability to survive as a 2C in the NHL, a role that usually comes with heavy PK and PP time. 5 foot 9, 182 lbs is small, but Marco Rossi isn't your typical undersized center.   Rossi's career has gone through some ups and downs. He took almost the entirety of the 2020-21 season off due to Myocarditis, aka inflammation of the heart. This was caused by COVID-19 and almost ended his career. He also spoke about his anxieties while going through his health struggles.

"The doctors told me if I played one more game in the World Junior Championship, this could have ended completely different... I'm thankful to God that he supported me. … I'm just happy that I'm still alive."

"Every time before I went to sleep, I was so scared that I won't wake up anymore. Every night, before sleep, I was really sad and always crying because I was scared of that. I told my parents, 'Could you sleep right next to my bed and be here 'til I fall asleep?' And every day I woke up in the morning, I was so glad that I woke up. It was really hard."

- Marco Rossi reflecting on his 2020-21 health scare caused by COVID-19 induced Myocarditis

  Rossi struggled in his first 2 stints in Minnesota, playing 2 games in 21-22', and 19 games in 22-23'. In those 21 games, he recorded 1 assist and was a minus 11, but his 51 points in 53 AHL games in 22-23' proved that the talent was still there. 

In Rossi's rookie season, he posted 21 goals, 19 assists for 40 points in 82 games. He was 6th in Calder Voting, and was named to the NHL All Rookie Team for 2023-24. 

This season, Rossi proved that his production was no fluke by scoring 24 goals, 36 assists (1 off of doubling his rookie season), for 60 points in 18:15 average ice time. 

So why would Minnesota want to trade him? The Wild don't necessarily have the center depth to make up for his production, so what gives (Puckpedia lists Marcus Johansson and Fredrick Gaudreau as the Wild's bottom 6 centers)?

This isn't the first time there have been rumors surrounding Marco Rossi, and Wild GM Bill Guerin has made his opinion on certain aspects of Rossi's game well-known.

“Like… some jam, some excitement. Some… some… ‘"[expletive} in your game. That’s what you need to survive in this league. It’s not a league for the nicest guys. I mean, you can be a nice guy. You can be a great guy but where there’s games to be won and 50-50 battles and things like that, you have to have some jam in your game.”

- Wild GM Bill Guerin talking about Marco Rossi on Michael Russo's "Straight From the Source" Podcast, December 2022

It kind of sounds like some of the issues certain folks have with Elias Pettersson, correct?

With 104 Hits and 88 Blocks in 184 career games, Rossi doesn't appear to be a hard-nosed center. 

However, if I asked you what the job of the 2nd line center is, your answer would probably be "Produce and be a positive on Special Teams", right? Well, good news everyone! Marco Rossi, despite his size and lack of counting stats, is one of the most courageous forwards in the league. Offensively, he plays above his size. His goal heatmap provides some very good insight into where Rossi scores from. 

 Average Goal Distance? 13.3 Feet. That is incredibly close to the net. For example, Zach Hyman of the Edmonton Oilers, commonly referred to as "McDavid's Backboard" due to his elite net front ability scored from an average of 12.4 feet during the 23-24 season, when he scored 54 goals. 

Rossi knows how to play on the interior, a trait that will endear him to hockey fans who appreciate the grit and battles in front. This should also endear him to new Canucks Head Coach Adam Foote. While media have suggested that Foote has his own ideas of how hockey should be played, and have insinuated that he won't be a Tocchet redux, Foote has also expressed that a lot of his ideas on how goals are scored are similar. Rossi would be able to survive in this type of environment, however, if Foote opens the door for more rush-based offense, Rossi would be able to be a secondary supporter. He isn't a primary puck carrier by any means, but if the Canucks decide that Filip Chytil is going to be a top 6 LW for them, there's a very high likelihood that he would be a fantastic fit alongside Rossi due to his superhuman ability to break in the puck with possession.

What's the risk with Rossi? He's a pending RFA in line for a sizable contract (think $7-8M over 7 years). He's unproven in the playoffs, and like most young, slight framed players, have had a tough time adjusting to the playoffs. 3 points in 6 games is meh for a 2C, but 6 games isn't a big sample size.

His ice time is what's really eye popping, however. Marco averaged 11:08 of ice time in the playoffs, more than a 7 minute per game drop from his regular season rate. 

What also pops out is his O Zone vs D Zone deployment. In the playoffs, Rossi had a D Zone start rate of 60.6% according to Hockey Reference, which undoubtedly would have led to his 5v5 Corsi being 43.7%, and his xGF% being 37.5%. His faceoff percentage isn't good either which can led to him being caught out on icings.

Elias Pettersson has also historically struggled with faceoffs, but with him logging his first season with a win rate in the dot above 50% in 23-24, and a 2nd half faceoff resurgence this season, the Canucks might feel better about acquiring a below average faceoff man. 

Secondly, he isn't right-handed. The Canucks desperately need a right-handed center. Aatu Raty is the only Canuck who can take faceoffs right-handed, and even then, he plays as a lefty. 

Overall? Would be a great pick up. High cost, but would fill a lot of offensive needs and would be a positive in non-faceoff defensive situations. 

2 - LW/RW - Lawson Crouse - 28 Years Old

Lawson Crouse is by no means a sexy pick. His stats don't fly off the charts either. 12 goals, and 6 assists in 81 games? That's 4th line production. Is Crouse a definite top 6 player? No, he isn't. Has he been one before, and could he be one again? Yes, he can. 

At 6'4", 214 lbs, you wouldn't expect a player of Crouse's size to be as good off the rush as he is. In his 2 previous seasons (22-23' and 23-24') Crouse scored 24 and 23 goals. Crouse was 5th on the Arizona Coyotes during those 2 seasons combined in rush attempts. To make things better, he isn't a slug, either. His top skating speeds over the last 3 seasons (22-23', 23-24', and 24-25') have been in the 65th, 85th, and 51st percentiles while his speed bursts over 20 MPH have been in the 66th, 64th, and 65th percentiles respectively. 

An average goal distance over the last 2 seasons of 21.96 feet and top shot power in the 72nd and 85th percentiles also showcases his ability to score from the slot, an area of need for the Canucks especially with the expected departure of former 40 goal scorer Brock Boeser. 

For those who may be worried about Crouse being a gentle giant, rest assured that isn't the case. Over his 585-game NHL career, Crouse has averaged 221 hits per 82 games.

For those who might ask "Does Crouse give the puck away a lot? Does he get hemmed in the D zone?" The answer to those questions is also no. His 82-game Takeaway to Giveaway ratio is 28 TA to 29 GA, hardly an issue for a rush chance-generating winger. His xGF% in the last 2 seasons has been 49.63% and 55.38% respectively, and his high danger chance percentage this season of 56.75% is genuinely elite.

The statistic that might shock people after reading all of those praises about Crouse is his ice time. In 81 games this season, Crouse averaged 13:44 of ice time. His lack of production makes this understandable, however, his career average ice time is only 14:45, and even during his best seasons, his highest average ice time was 17:45, when he scored a career-high 24 goals (18 at even strength) and 21 assists (19 at even strength) for 45 points. It isn't as if Lawson Crouse is undisciplined either, averaging 51 PIM a season. 

So, what are Crouse's faults? Well, he might be one of the worst passers in the NHL, as shown by his 2022 microstats. He is also extremely streaky. During his career-best season in 22-23, he had a 19-game goalless drought. He's also not a playdriver by any means.

However, there is a very obvious spot for Lawson Crouse in the Canucks lineup, and that is next to Elias Pettersson. Remember when I said that Pettersson was a fantastic rush offense player? Well, so is Crouse, just in the complete opposite way. Crouse could very well be the Yin to Pettersson's Yang when it comes to rush offense.

Elias Pettersson, super efficient playmaker who excels with creating chances and generating off the rush combined with Lawson Crouse, a Power Forward who lives and dies based on his ability to efficiently bury chances off the rush could be a better pair than Peanut Butter and Chocolate. 

This would be the Canucks best option for a power forward when it comes to "boom or bust" type acquisitions.

3 - C- M. Geekie/M. McTavish - 26 & 23 Years Old

2 Players take up the 3rd slot, as they're both RFA's Centers and due to compensation costs & ownership requirements, the Canucks would only be able to offer sheet one.

Both are your prototypical Center Power Forward. McTavish would be the bigger grab, as the former 3rd overall pick seems primed for a breakout with the Anaheim Ducks, and although the Ducks have the cap to match any offer sheet, and ownership has stated that their payroll budget is no longer an issue, as Ted DeBiase once said, "Everybody's got a price!"

An offer sheet for McTavish would have to be an extremely large overpayment for his current production, with the hope that he will become a 70 point, elite 2C, similar to a Ryan Kesler or David Backes type. He is the exact player the Canucks need, and would also be an elite fit next to Filip Chytil.

Like most young power forwards, they excel when controlling the puck, but can oftentimes struggle to adjust to the NHL pace. Players like McTavish spend their entire junior careers being the primary threat on the ice, and as a result, possessing the puck the most. The adjustment to playing with and against more skilled and physical opponents while also recognizing they aren't "the man" anymore can be a tough realization for a player.

With McTavish however, his adjustments have been night and day. He has been continuously above average on the Ducks (comparing him to the league average would be somewhat unfair considering how bad the Ducks are) in terms of relative xGF%. Since his debut, his xGF% has been 2.19% better than the Ducks' average, 4th amongst Duck Forwards, behind Troy Terry, Alex Killorn, and Leo Carlsson. Also, even though his average goal distance is 23 feet, his heatmap glows red around the net. He generates chances in tight for both himself and his teammates. If he can find an extra level to his finishing ability in tight, he could be a 35-goal center.

Geekie is a bit more interesting. He's right-handed, and the chances of a successful offer sheet are drastically better. He fills the Canucks need by adding a Large, Right Handed Center who can also score goals. His skill set is unique in that he produced mostly at even strength (29 of his 33 goals and 19 of his 24 assists were at even strength), and he was 7th amongst Bruins forwards (10th overall) in PP ice time (1:48 per game) and 31st amongst Bruins in PK ice time (1 second per game).

With Geekie, you are betting on him continuing to produce at even strength, even if that means his shooting percentage doesn't stay at an astronomically high 22%. With McTavish, you're betting on the future, while acknowledging that whatever he is paid will be an overpayment for the first 1-2 seasons. 

In either case, would the Canucks be willing to part with their 2026 First Round Pick + potential other picks, AND overpay a player just to fulfill a need without subtracting from their prospect pool? I find that to be highly unlikely. 

4 - LW/RW - Andrei Kuzmenko - 29 Years Old

Hey, who doesn't like a reunion story?

  Andrei Kuzmenko might be the NHL player with the widest range of statistical outcomes. One day he's putting up 39 goals and 74 points in his rookie season, and the next day you find out he's been traded 3 times in 18 months, and wonder if he'll even be in the league.

  Let's be honest with ourselves here for a minute. Andrei Kuzmenko has been a victim of coaching mismanagement. Rick Tocchet, Adam Huska, and John Tortorella are 3 coaches who run somewhat archaic offensive systems. Huska for example, still uses some aspects of the 2004' Flames in their current system. Tocchet I already mentioned earlier, and Tortorella once famously said  

“I’m not trying to be a fool here; I’m just not so sure it’s great for the game. If you did that back in the 2000s, late 90s, you would get your head taken off. It’s cool, it’s cool to watch and all that, but I’m not so sure it’s good for the game. And I stand by that.”

- Tortorella in 2021 on ESPN, talking about the now-infamous "Michigan Flip" Goal orchestrated by Anaheim Duck Forwards Trevor Zegras and Sonny Milano

  So to put things bluntly, outside of Bruce Boudreau (who also expressed various levels of criticisms towards the flashy Russian), and Jim Hiller who recently led the Kings to a regular season offensive resurgence, Kuzmenko has been stapled with coaches who beg their players to play safe. 

In reality, Kuzmenko could be the cheap boom or bust top 6 scoring winger that could round out the Canucks top 6. His powerplay prowess and chemistry with Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes were on full display on an almost nightly basis, and his ability to play both the goal line and bumper positions on the PP add a level of depth to a Canucks powerplay that was oftentimes too focused on point shots and jam plays rather than finding high danger chances. Kuzmenko might command more money after a late season and playoff outburst in LA, but anything at or below 3.5m would be a steal for what he could potentially provide.

Kuzmenko's speed is a hinderance and unless Pettersson can get back to where he was speed wise pre-knee tendonitis (and/or if Filip Chytil/Lawson Crouse were to play with him and Pettersson), he would have to be viewed as the tertiary transition forward, but this could be mitigated by Quinn Hughes or Filip Hronek jumping up in the rush more. 

The risk of signing Kuzmenko is simple. If Adam Foote insists on keeping things status quo in terms of offensive structure, Kuzmenko will fail to produce and as a result, will sit some nights. Also, despite his decent defensive metrics, Kuzmenko is a victim of the fact that all of his mistakes (albeit seldom in frequency) are extremely noticeable and preventable.

Would the Canucks be okay with, and could Adam Foote coach in a non traditional way as to utilize Kuzmenko based solely on the score of the game, and in areas where he excels? Could Foote coach a specialist type player? On top of that, even if Foote could utilize Kuzmenko properly, do the Canucks have a middle or bottom 6 player with enough 2 way ability to not completely bring down a line? Dakota Joshua or Nils Hoglander perhaps? 

The Canucks offseason cannot be wasted trying to raise this teams floor. If the Canucks want to prove to Quinn Hughes, the NHL, and most importantly the Vancouver Canucks fanbase that they're to be taken seriously, and that their priority is to win a Stanley Cup with Quinn Hughes, then they best be prepared to swing for the fences. 

As famous poet and playwright T. S. Eliot once said

“Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.”

Well, we're about to see just how much the Canucks are willing to risk, and hopefully, they can go all the way.